Good morning.

For those of you — like me — who already had your drafts, this is a rough time of year…

But we’re just a week away, so hang on tight.🙏

Regardless of if you’ve drafted already or not, our position previews will keep rollin’ to make sure you have an idea of the landscape at each spot this season.

Today, we take a look at RBs…

AROUND THE LEAGUE 🚨 

Aiyuk Stays in San Fran

💰 WR Brandon Aiyuk has signed a four-year, $120 million deal with the 49ers. The saga is finally over. This has been the expectation over the last month, so nothing changes much in terms of fantasy projections.

🥱 RB Dalvin Cook has signed with the Dallas Cowboys. Don’t get too excited… Out of 67 qualifying backs (50+ carries) in 2023, he was 61st in yards per cary (3.19), last in EPA per carry and 63rd in yards after contact per carry (per @ConnorAllenNFL). He’s washed. I’m avoiding this backfield altogether.

😬 Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase opted not to practice with the team as he continues his hold out. This came just one day after Bengals HC Zac Taylor said that Chase was expected to play Week 1. Taylor called it a “day-to-day” situation, so it’s something to monitor over the coming days.

👀 The Patriots officially named Jacoby Brissett as their starting QB. Drake Maye truthers will have to wait at least a few weeks.

🙄 The Steelers officially named Russell Wilson as their starting QB. While we wish it was Justin Fields, for now… Steelers Nation, Let’s Ride!

😌 The Chiefs have signed RB Samaje Perine. He could be intriguing if he takes on a Jerick McKinnon role. Meanwhile, Bengals and Titans RB managers can breathe a sigh of relief.

↩ The Browns re-signed RB D’Onta Foreman, as expected. He will be the short yardage back while Nick Chubb remains on the PUP.

🤔 Chiefs WR Rashee Rice will not be placed on the commissioner’s exempt list "unless there is a material change in the case.” The league continues to monitor his situation, but as we mentioned before, it’s unlikely he’ll be suspended this season.

SPONSOR

POSITION PREVIEW 🧐

Running Back

You know the “Big 3”:

Christian McCaffrey scored 122.6 more fantasy points than the RB2 last year, and Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall are two up-and-coming dual threat studs on offenses that should be much improved in 2024.

After that, opinions tend to vary. Some prefer punting the position altogether and going with a “Zero-RB” approach, while others have fallen in love with some of the tier two guys. Regardless of what you decide to do, we’ll fill you in on some of the breakouts, busts, and sleepers that the experts are talking about…

Breakouts

🔥 Dolphins RB De’Von Achane finished last season as the RB4 in points per game (16.1) despite averaging just 11.8 touches (42nd among running backs). He also averaged a league-best 7.8 yards per carry while ranking first (among 49 running backs with 100 rushes) in both yards before contact and yards after contact per rush, per The Ringer’s Danny Kelly. If he stays healthy, Achane will explode.

🔥 Bengals RB Chase Brown has 4.43 speed and pass-catching prowess, averaging 10.4 yards per target last year. He was also a workhorse in college, averaging 27.3 carries a game in his final season at Illinois (per Pat Fitzmaurice of FantasyPros), suggesting that he’s capable of handling a much bigger workload if he outplays the veteran Zack Moss. In an ambiguous backfield with major upside like Cincy’s, target the young stud over the aging vet.

🔥 Titans RB Tyjae Spears should see more work in 2024 with the Titans swapping out Derrick Henry for Tony Pollard. On limited touches last year, Spears was top-5 in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.26) and ranked 11th in yards after contact per attempt (3.1). He provided similar effectiveness as a receiver, ranking second in missed tackles forced per reception (0.52), and 11th in yards after contact per reception (3.7). He also earned a top-10 receiving grade (74.6) and a top-25 rushing grade (77.8), per Jonathon Macri of PFF. The talent’s there, it’s just about opportunity.

Honorable Mentions: Bills RB James Cook & Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker

Busts

📉 Rams RB Kyren Williams ranked as the RB4 in route participation in 2023 (61.3%), but that only translated into an 11.5% target share (RB18), 48 targets (RB24) and 0.77 yards per route run (RB37), per Brandon Murchison of FantasyPros. The appeal to Kyren in 2023 was his workload (83.9% snap chare), but with the selection of Blake Corum and his new role as a punt returner, there is a level of concern as to how much of a bell-cow he’ll be in 2024.

📉 Vikings RB Aaron Jones set career lows in yards per rushing attempt (4.5) and breakaway run rate (18.6%) last season, per PFF. He also had a lower missed tackle forced per rushing attempt rate (16%) than Royce Freeman (per Fantasy Points Data). Add in the fact that he’ll turn 30 this season and is on a new team with Sam Darnold as the starting QB, and he’s an easy fade in drafts.

📉 Raiders RB Zamir White had the sixth-most rushing yards in the league from Week 14-on last season (per Gary Davenport of FootballGuys), thanks in large part to a workhorse role (averaged 21 carries per game). But in 2024, his role might not be so dominant:

Honorable Mentions: Bucs RB Rachaad White & Bengals RB Zack Moss

Sleepers

💤 Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert finished as the RB2 overall last year, but is being drafted as the RB25. This is largely due to his age (32) and the Achane hype, but Mostert remains the leader of the backfield. Last season he proved he still has juice, finishing 17th in yards per touch, sixth in explosive run rate, and 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Even if he regresses, he should still beat his ADP in Miami’s high-powered offense.

💤 Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin ranked 10th in yards per touch (5.3) and 13th in breakaway run rate (5.3%) last season. He also showcased a natural receiving ability, ranking sixth in yards per route run (2.1), and his 37% target per route run rate led all players with at least 150 snaps at the position, per FTN’s Adam Pfiefer. On top of that, every Sean Payton offense since 2013 has finished top-5 in percentage of targets going to RBs. McLaughlin could boom in PPR leagues.

💤 Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins is coming off ACL and Achilles tears, so he’s an easy fade for most, but he now finds himself as a co-starter in OC Greg Roman’s run-heavy system. Roman’s offenses led the league in rush attempts per game in 2019 and 2020. In the two years after, they never fell below 30 rush attempts per game or outside the top six in attempts per game, per Colin McTamany of FantraxHQ.

Really, Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and rookie Kimani Vidal could all be values this year if one emerges as the true go-to guy. But Dobbins is the most intriguing of the bunch, given his co-starter status and cheap ADP of RB43.

Honorable Mentions: Bucs RB Bucky Irving & 49ers RB Jordan Mason

POLL

ROOKIE SPOTLIGHT 🔦

Blake Corum

Rams rookie RB Blake Corum is a tough and productive back. At the University of Michigan, he proved he’s capable of carrying a heavy load, producing three straight seasons of 1,000+ scrimmage yards and scoring 59 touchdowns, while losing just two fumbles on 700 touches.

He now finds himself with the Rams in Sean McVay’s RB-friendly system. While he’ll be the #2 back behind Kyren Williams, recent reports of Williams being the team’s punt returner speak volumes on their trust in Corum. He’s likely to see a few more carries than previously anticipated, and the added risk of a Kyren injury now makes Corum an even more intriguing handcuff to roster.

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Matthew Berry’s 10 Lists of 10 for the 2024 Fantasy Football Season. The lists include his 10 most rostered players — #1? Kyler Murray.

📖 Read Danny Kelly of The Ringer’s Best Fantasy Football Pick in Every Round. Kelly loves our rookie spotlight RB Blake Corum in the 10th round of drafts this year.

📖 Read John Hansen of Fantasy Points’ 2024 Good Vibes, Bad Vibes. The Guru breaks down every team and offers some players who have good vibes, decent vibes, no vibes, or bad vibes heading into the season.

🎙️Listen to Establish The Run’s Worst Fantasy Pick in Every Round podcast to get an idea of some landmines to avoid.

📺 Watch Tom Brady’s interview with Stephen A. Smith from Fanatics Fest for a great discussion on broadcasting, the NFL’s top QBs, greatness, and more. The full interview is an hour long, but you can also see snippets on Steven A.’s YouTube channel.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Always double check before you blow your FAAB…

Just 6 days until regular season NFL football! Less than a week!!! We got this.✊

Enjoy the long weekend. See you Monday.

- Marcus