🏈 3 Trades You Need to Make

Good morning. I’ve been decimated with injuries and am limping to a 3-2 start in my home league. Max pain.

We’ve got a packed newsletter for you, so let's dive in.

Thursday Night Fantasy

A quick preview of every fantasy-relevant player in the Buccaneers & Eagles game, with excerpts from a free FantasyPoints article.

Passing:

• Jalen Hurts - Hurts is the only quarterback with 21+ FP in every game this season. This is the week he gets it done in the air, too.

• Tom Brady - Injured thumb? No problem. Brady has thrown for 4+ TDs in three games & is a must-start.

Rushing:

• Miles Sanders - The Buccaneers are allowing a league-low 39.6 rushing yards per game. Sanders hasn’t got it done this season, and I don’t expect that changes tonight. Kenneth Gainwell posted a combined 9/90 receiving in extremely negative scripts in Weeks 3-4 and could pull a Week 5 Myles Gaskin.

• Regular Season Lenny - Leonard Fournette has 100+ scrimmage yards and a snap share above 60% in back to back games. Solid starter here.

Receiving:

• Read below for why DeVonta Smith is a must-buy before this game. Zach Ertz is a borderline must start against a defense giving up the 6th-most FPG (17.2) to TEs.

• Per Wes Huber: The expectation is top CB Darius Slay will shadow Mike Evans, while also-good Steven Nelson will occupy most of his time on Antonio Brown

• “It’s not like you’re benching either guy, but the best matchup is in the slot for Chris Godwin, where he towers over primary slot CB Avonte Maddox (5’9).”

Scooping the Dip

There’s nothing better than buying the dip before a monster fantasy performance. Three players we’re buying (and when we say buying, that includes on Prediction Strike):

Stefon Diggs

Every fantasy football writer worth their salt is writing buy-low articles on Stefon Diggs. Luckily for you, we read them all. And we agree. BUY THIS GUY. Here’s why:

• Diggs has 1 TD so far, while Benjamin Button has 4 (Emmanuel Sanders). That’s bound to regress.

• Davante Adams (145.6) and Courtland Sutton (128.8) are the only WRs with a higher per-game air-yards average than Diggs (127.2).

• The Bills throw at the highest rate in the league, lead the NFL in points, and Diggs is leading the team in targets, yards, and receptions.

• Diggs is the WR27 in 0.5 PPR, but is WR10 in expected points. If Diggs catches 50% of his air yards, he moves to WR14.

Diggs’ share price has dropped 25% on Prediction Strike…

A.J. Brown

AJ Brown's first game back from a hamstring injury was strong on underlying usage, but bad for fantasy. Why we’re buying:

• Tannehill only had 22 attempts and AJ ran a route EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. On 22 routes, he commanded 6 targets (27% target share) and caught 3 for 38.

• As the Titans play in more competitive games, they will pass more. Their last two matchups: NYJ & JAX. Trash.

• Next two? BUF & KC.

Brown’s share price has dropped to $1.98 (down almost 34%) on Prediction Strike, and he’s now $1 cheaper than Kenny Golladay… who’s on the Giants.

Javonte Williams

Per PFF, Javonte Williams leads the NFL in missed tackles forced, with 17 missed tackles through four games, second only to Nick Chubb (18). So he’s hard to tackle, what else?

• Williams remains slightly behind Melvin Gordon in a timeshare, but the Broncos are using Williams in all situations (short, long, and 2-min offense), and he’s clearly the superior RB.

• Melvin Gordon Week 5: 3.8 YPC.

• Javonte Williams Week 5: 7.63 YPC

• Video proof he doesn’t go down easily

Rookie RBs are notoriously slow starters but often win leagues (see 2020 Cam Akers). And, after a tough early schedule, things look great down the stretch.

Javonte’s share price has risen only 7.5% on Prediction Strike - the fantasy football stock market (& a sponsor who offers our audience a free share w/ $20 deposit) - I got Nick Chubb.

OTHER BUYS

• Rondale Moore: Most yards gained after the catch among rookie WRs through Week 5 since 2007: 1. Amari Cooper (239) 2. Rondale Moore (230) 3. Julio Jones (155). That’s ELITE company, and now Maxx Williams is gone…

• DeVonta Smith: By far the top target in the Eagles passing game, Smith has a premium matchup against the Buccaneers tonight. The Buccaneers are giving up a league-high 17.2 catches per game to WRs and the second-most FPG (46.7) to WRs. Smith is one of only 9 WRs with over 40% of his team's air yards. Buy low and buy now.

• Noah Fant: When Dwain tweets, we listen:

Want more? Here’s a list of top rookie buy-lows for dynasty.

How Insiders Get Their Scoops

Adam Schefter was “caught” in the NFL email investigation. While it doesn’t appear to be anywhere near as serious as Gruden’s (Schefty just does a bit of ass kissing), what’s interesting is the illustration of how Schefter gets his insider knowledge. From the court filing, super-agent Drew Rosenhaus sends a bunch of people an email saying Navarro Bowman is available for trade, one GM forwards it to Schefter, and Shefty reports it:

The next morning:

Quick Hits

• Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) was limited in Wednesday's practice; be wary, CMC practiced last week before sitting out Sunday’s game. Matt Rule said the superstar is a game-time decision.

• Kadarius Toney (ankle) participated in Wednesday's practice, great news for his chances of playing in Week 6. In related news, Sterling Shepard (hamstring) and Darius Slayton also expect to suit up. Daniel Jones is questionable to play due to a concussion.

• The Lions losing C Frank Ragnow (turf toe) for the season is a downgrade for all Lions skill players. Ragnow was PFF's second graded pass blocking center and third graded run blocking center this year.

• The Buccaneers announced they will remove former head coach Jon Gruden from their Ring of Honor.

• T.Y. Hilton (neck) returned to practice on Wednesday, and coach Frank Reich didn't rule out Hilton playing in Week 6. Worth stashing despite taking a backseat to Michael Pittman.

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Adjusted Trade Values Week 6

u/PeakedInHighSkool comes in clutch. Our new lord and savior, Kadarius Toney, jumps 23.5 points in the rankings. While I’d make a few changes, most of the values are fair -Except Allen Robinson, who should be even lower.

This is a helpful chart to consider when making trades in 0.5 PPR:

Click here for standard scoring, and here for PPR.

Thanks for joining me this morning, have an incredible day.

- Jake

The Morning Huddle: an (almost) daily newsletter full of fantasy football news, memes, and stats - giving you the edge to win titles and the laughs to enjoy every minute of it.

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