🏈 Almost Thanksgiving

SF dominate all positions, Cowboys are rolling, backfield shakeups and deep dives...

Good morning. Forget that work assignment, homework, or anything else you wanted to get done this week. At least that's what I'm telling myself. Because yes, we've got football tomorrow. And I might not enjoy it.

In what will be our final newsletter until Sunday morning, we want to wish you a happy thanksgiving. We (Matt, Eddie and Jake) all work full-time jobs and write these after work, so we're glad someone reads them. Seriously, grateful for you.

Now, enough of that soft sh*t, let's get to the content so you continue to dominate your league mates!!!

Today's newsletter has a position-by-position rundown, extra fantasy football content for you alpha's and updates from around the league.

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QUARTERBACKS

Chase Who?

Joe Burrow finished as PFF's highest graded QB for W11 and the fantasy QB1. After a rough 3:5 TD to turnover ratio to start the year, Burrow is now QB5 and the Bengals are now 6-4. Joey Franchise wasn't lying when he told everyone to "take a deep breath and relax". Burrow has three of the top-20 highest graded games by a QB this season, trailing only Josh Allen. His 93.1 PFF grade since Week 7 is the best in the NFL.

  • Daniel Jones is 10th in fantasy points per game, despite Darius Slayton as his WR1. Jones' rushing upside alone makes him fantasy relevant.

  • Jimmy Garoppolo now has 6 TDs and 0 INTs in his last 3 games. The CMC addition made Jimmy and the SF offense more efficient and more explosive. Jimmy leads the league in YAC EPA/play on completed passes, per Sam Hoppen's chart.

Dak Prescott finished as QB9, despite sitting out the entire 4th. Prescott-led teams lead the NFL in PPG since 2020 (31.4), better than Josh Allen (29.4) or Patrick Mahomes (29.3). Prescott told reporters yesterday that he's reached out to free agent Odell Beckham Jr. and let him know how much they want him in Dallas for the stretch run. Imagine if they didn't trade Amari Cooper for a 5th rounder...

Since getting Dak back:

RUNNING BACKS

Pollard Unleashed

Tony Pollard should be considered an RB1. He finished week 11 with 189 total yards and 2 receiving TDs. He now has 6 TDs in his last 4 with over 100+ total yards in each. He's finally out-touching and out-snapping Ezekiel Elliot. Given the fact that this is the first year he's not on my fantasy team, he's likely to be a league winner.

  • Najee Harris had more TDs last week (2) than he's had all season. After only seeing 8 carries in W9 and rumblings of Jaylen Warren taking over as the RB1, Harris turned a corner. He has seen 20 carries in back-to-back games and is 5th in rushing over the past two.

  • Jamaal Williams has 11 red-zone rushing TDs, more than 25 entire NFL teams and only one less TD (12) than the entire Broncos team TDs (13).

  • Saquon Barkley's workload may be catching up to him, with some rough splits in the second-half of his season: Avoided tackle rate: first five games: 23%. Last five games: 12%.

David Montgomery saw elite usage with Khalil Herbert on the IR.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Raiders Stink, Davante Doesn't

We don't mention him much, because he's just so elite. In the past 3 games Davante Adams has an insane 26 catches, 413 yards and 5 TDs. He joins Travis Kelce has the only other player with 10+ receiving TDs on the season. And re-watch Adams' walk-off TD catch after a nasty post-route against Patrick Surtain here.

  • Joshua Palmer finished as the WR3 last week despite Keenan Allen and Mike Williams returning. Williams left the game after re-injuring his ankle - if he were to miss more time, Palmer should see high usage. He's had 28 targets in his past 3.

  • Anyone who picked up Christian Watson got instant ROI. Watson scored another 2 TDs on 4 catches (for 48 yards). After 5 TDs in two games, he is the leader amongst rookie WRs in receiving TDs. Darkhorse contender for offensive rookie of the year?

  • Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk were both top 10 WRs and have high upside on a weekly basis. The TD scorer, Brandon Aiyuk has 11 targets in the RZ w/ 8 rec & 5 TDs.

Amari Cooper has already set a new career-high with 5 WR1 games this season. Only Diggs, Adams & Kupp have more WR1 games than Amari this year, per Ryan McDowell. And he might get better with Deshaun Watson?!

Despite Andy Dalton as his QB, Chris Olave is first among rookies in catches (51) and yards (760). He had 102 yards and a TD last week where he burnt Jalen Ramsey. Superstar in the making shares some ELITE company.

TIGHT END

The Kittle Comeback

George Kittle has 4 TDs in the past 3 games, with two last week. After missing the first two games and having a relatively slow start to the season, Kittle is TE6 on the year. His schedule looks great, as these three teams make up 3 of the bottom 5 for fantasy points allowed to TEs:

  • Week 13: Miami

  • Week 15: Seattle

  • Week 17: Las Vegas

  • Juwan Johnson continues to produce for the Saints, catching 3 passes for 47 yards and a TD. He now has a TD in 3 straight games and is now TE2 since W6. 

  • Pat Freiermuth's target share since the Chase Claypool trade is now an elite 27% and 31%. Are there five TE's that you'd rather roster? It's close.

Another crazy stat on how good Travis Kelce has been:

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DEEP DIVES

The idea is you pick up a player the week before everyone wants to grab them off the waiver wire. This column wins leagues like no other. Last week, the perfect pickup was Kendall Hinton. This week's players, available in almost every league, worth grabbing:

  • Marlon Mack (1.6%): With Melvin Gordon cut, Mike Boone on IR, and Chase Edmonds expected to miss an extended period of time, Mack will be operating as the backup to Latavius Murray in W12 and possibly going forward. Things are THAT bad in Denver.

  • Kyren Williams (11.6%): With the surprising news that the Rams cut Darrell Henderson, Cam Akers and Williams are the only RB's on the the active roster for L.A. Williams played 53% of the snaps last week and averaged over 5 yards per carry. He should have a real shot to beat out Akers.

  • DeMarcus Robinson: The Ravens best WR after Rashod Bateman was lost for the season, Robinson put up a massive 9/128 game in W11. Lamar loves to throw bombs and needs someone other than Mark Andrews to throw to. If Robinson has another big week, you'll wish you stashed him.

Also, why is no one talking about Justin Jackson? It was Jackson not Jamaal Williams or D'Andre Swift who led the Lions in rushing in week 11 with 66 yards on 9 carries. 46 of those yards came after contact and showed explosion during a 27 yard run. Swift appears to be losing the RB2 role to Jackson

QUICK SLANTS

  • With the Giants exceeding expectations on the season, the question now is should they extend Daniel Jones at $25 million? This article from ESPN lays out all the options NY has.

  • The Panthers are playing QB roulette, announcing Sam Darnold will start in W12. Darnold stinks but might be an upgrade for DJ Moore.

  • Elijah Moore trolled Zach Wilson by posting a pic of himself throwing a pass. Love it.

  • Cardinals OL and run game coordinator Sean Kugler was relived of his duties after an incident in Mexico City on Saturday night. A rough Saturday night indeed.

Thanks for joining us this morning - now seriously consider checking out The Athletic's end of year sale. $1 a month for an entire year feels like stealing. So much good content, so little expense.

Happy almost-thanksgiving.

Jake Eddie, Matt

Tweet of the Day

Melvin Gordon's "goodbye" to Broncos Country killed me.

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