Good morning. We wanted to start by saying thank you. We appreciate you joining us in living our truth by neglecting family, friends and work responsibilities for fantasy football.

RANKINGS

Jordan Love drops to QB17. We highlighted Love as a regression candidate and the first-time starter has struggled since, throwing just 1 TD and 5 INTs in his last two games — including a brutal 3 INT performance on MNF.

Travis Etienne jumps to RB5 following his RB1 finish in Week 5. Etienne has as high of a ceiling as any RB in the league. The big change: he’s on pace for 60 receptions (almost double his 2022 total) and has only one game with less than 20 touches (per @FFSnoog).

Breece Hall rises to RB8. If only the Jets faced Denver every week… While negative game scripts may limit Hall’s upside, his gamebreaking speed and role “without a snap count” resulted in 177 rushing yards and an RB3 finish with elite underlying usage in Week 5.

Miles Sanders falls to RB30. For the second straight week, Chuba Hubbard has more snaps, touches, and FP than Sanders (per @17gamepace). The Panthers are bottom-10 in total scoring and yardage. No thanks.

Cooper Kupp moves up to WR7. The PPR machine picked up right where he left off, collecting 8 receptions on 12 targets for 118 yards on Sunday — proving he and Puka Nacua (7/71/1) can co-exist. He’s healthy and poised for another monster year.

🚑 Justin Jefferson (hamstring), De'Von Achane (knee), Anthony Richardson (shoulder) and James Conner (knee) are on the IR and will miss at least four games.

TRADES

5 Moves to Win Titles

If you need wins now

Tony Pollard is a league-winning acquisition. The Cowboys RBs rank first in high-leverage opportunities per game and sport a measly 3/13 TD conversion rate on goal line carries, which is bound to regress, per Chad Parson of FootballGuys.

Pollard’s scored almost 4 FPPG less than his expectation and should have four more TDs based on his touches. He’ll revert to the mean. Cowboys will be better than they looked on Sunday night.

Trades we’re seeing for Pollard:

• Alvin Kamara + WR

• Justin Jefferson

• De’Von Achane + TE

• Joe Mixon + WR

Austin Ekeler (ankle) told reporters there is a '99 percent' chance he plays Week 6 against the Cowboys. Ekeler led all RBs in XFP (23.7) and finished 2nd in fantasy points scored (26.4) in his only game this season. In that game, his snap rate (65% pre-injury) was higher than in 2022. We all know Josh Kelley is not stealing touches. It’s hard to overpay for Ekeler.

• Derrick Henry + DK Metcalf

• Alvin Kamara + Sam LaPorta

• Jonathan Taylor + WR

• De’Von Achane + WR

Breece Hall is another league winner. In Week 5, Hall hit a 76% running back rush share, a season high. His 11.5% target share? Also a season high, per @LateRoundQB. He’s back, and behind only De’Von Achane in yards after contact per rush attempt (6.16). Just watch the tape (video).

• Kyren Williams + starting WR

• Jaylen Waddle + stash RB

• De’Von Achane + Terry McLaurin

Trade whatever you have to for Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey's 26.8 PPR FPPG are more than double that of the RB22 (Joe Mixon at 12 FPPG), making CMC equal to having an extra RB slot each week.

• Saquon Barkley + Mike Evans

• Jonathan Taylor + DK Metcalf

• Keenan Allen + Alvin Kamara

• Tee Higgins + a new 2023 Ford F-150 Raptor

If you’re in a playoff position

Justin Jefferson might never be this cheap again. A win-hungry manager might need to move him. Language from Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell suggested the IR stint might be an overly precautionary move to protect Jefferson “from himself”.

As Ben Gretch’s Stealing Signals noted, managers are worried about Jefferson’s season, not helped by Adam Schefter’s tweet about the “unspoken issue” of Jefferson’s contract. Jefferson is eligible to return after Week 9, which offers just enough time for the Vikings season. You just need him healthy for the playoffs.

• Deebo Samuel + Jakobi Meyers

• Alvin Kamara + Jordan Addison

How to make more trades?

Look, those are some obvious buys. So how do you get a deal done?

1. Use a pickup line. “What's your availability for making a trade right now? Are you interested or not even remotely?” - our remix of Lil Dicky’s pickup-line.

2. Put the other side first. Think about what will make another manager’s team better. Look at their roster. Maybe they just lost Justin Jefferson for four weeks.

3. Buy their regrets. The cheapest players will be those who managers regret drafting. The ones everyone calls washed.

These principles were included in The Athletic column Jake writes highlighting 13 insights managers should know each week.

MARKETS

RB Stashes for Spoils

🔝 Michael Pittman’s 34.2 percent first-read target rate is the 11th highest among WRs and his 41 first-read targets is a top-7 mark among WRs, per Jacob Gibbs. Pocket-bound Minshew should be a positive for Pittman’s game.

🏦 Stash Jordan Mason. Mason looks poised to retain the RB2 spot on the 49ers, especially after HC Kyle Shanahan talked him up this week saying that Mason “looks like a starting RB.”

🔼 Acquire Zach Charbonnet. The Seahawks spent a 2nd round pick on Charbonnet for a reason. Impressing in limited action, PFF has graded him RB10 overall and top 10 in pass-blocking. The rookie has enormous contingent value if Kenneth Walker misses time.

📈 Trade for Josh Palmer. Palmer was targeted on 30% of his pass routes and led the Chargers with a 35.6% first-read target share (12th overall). Palmer’s role and LA’s pass heaviness (seventh in pass rate over expected) should sustain fantasy production.

🏦 Stash Trayveon Williams and Rico Dowdle. Both are handcuffs in offenses with a bell-cow RB. Williams only has played 58 snaps, but that’s more than Chase Brown and Chris Evans combined (14). Dowdle has flashed when given the opportunity and is the superior runner and pass-blocker to Deuce Vaughn.

🛑 Don’t fall for Dalton Schultz. With Tank Dell (concussion) sidelined and Nico Collins blanketed by A.J. Terrell, Schultz had his biggest game of the year. The Texans now face a Saints team that shuts down TEs and just held Hunter Henry to 0. Avoid.

REGRESSION

Dameon Fierce

Hear us out… Pierce’s 58 rushes over the past three weeks rank third among RBs and the Texans want to be run heavy; Houston has the fifth lowest pass rate over expected. In two of the past three games, they’ve been well below their expected pass rate while protecting leads, so Pierce will continue being fed.

Pierce’s -20.8 PPR points below expectation trail only Tony Pollard (-21.6) and Josh Jacobs (-27.7), per Fantasy Life’s Ian Hartitz.

The Texans’ offensive line — even now that it’s healthy — is still middling, and Devin Singletary is the primary back on passing downs. But his volume is there and Pierce’s stretch run is fantastic (although his fantasy playoff matchups (two Titans games) are rough):

Is he washed? No - there have been plenty of flashes for the sophomore RB.

Hooked on a Thielen

Now is the time to sell high on Adam Thielen? He’s currently the WR10 (PPR) despite starting the year with two catches for 12 yards against the Falcons. Since then, he has 36 catches for 382 yards and three touchdowns in four games.

Per CBSSports’ Heath Cummings, Thielen’s 82.6% catch rate is a career-high, his 8.6 yards per target is his best mark since 2020, and his 78.8 yards per game is his best mark since 2018. All at 33 years old.

Regression appears inevitable for a player Thielen’s age — which, unfortunately, might make it difficult to get true value in return for him. But checking in with a desperate team (maybe the one who just lost Justin Jefferson) is worth your time.

Bonus: Jonathan Mingo — Per NBCSports’ Denny Carter, Mingo had a 27% air yards share Weeks 1-3. Most recently, Mingo saw 23% of Carolina’s air yards in their Week 5 loss to Detroit.

On the season, his air yards are comparable to CeeDee Lamb and DK Metcalf. Unfortunately for the rookie, his 53% catchable target rate is the lowest rate in the league. Only Tee Higgins has a lower air yards conversion rate. If Bryce Young improves, Mingo’s production could follow.

QUICK SLANTS

Scary Matchup For Terry

📖 Read The Everything Report: Week 6 by Scott Barrett from Fantasy Points. He details why Joe Mixon has a bright future as the season goes on:

“He currently ranks 6th in red zone carries (17), having handled 100% of the team’s backfield carries inside the red zone, but only has one touchdown on the year to show for it. Better days surely lie ahead, and I’d bet on him finishing the season as a low-end RB1 at worst.”

📖 Read Fantasy Football Shadow Report by Mike Clay from ESPN. Terry McLaurin may be in for a tough week:

“When these teams met in Week 12 last season, [lockdown CB AJ] Terrell shadowed McLaurin on 12 of his 19 routes, including all 12 perimeter routes… McLaurin was limited to a 4-48-0 receiving line on six targets in the game.”

“The larger concern for McLaurin is a lack of volume and production, so with the tough matchup in mind, the speedy receiver is no more than a flex option in Week 6.”

📖 Read The Utilization Report by Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life. George Pickens has been dominating:

“The second-year WR leads the Steelers in targets against zone (23%) and man coverage (30%) per PFF data. And when he gets his opportunities, he is making the most of them. Of WRs with at least 40 targets, only Tyreek Hill averages more yards per catch (18.1) than Pickens (17.9).”

🎙️Listen to Feel It or F@#K It with Bob Harris and Matt Waldman, where they explain why the 49ers might’ve drafted Trey Lance over Brock Purdy. They talk Justin Fields’ improvement and Zack Moss, Breece Hall, among others.

📺️ Watch 49ers LT Trent Williams 1v1 reps vs. Micah Parsons breakdown by Brandon Thorn.

Creator of the Day

Josh Larky

In this new series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Josh Larky (@JlarkyTweets) is the Director of Fantasy Football & Betting at The 33rd Team. He left his analytics job with the San Diego Padres to join PlayerProfiler. His biggest article was a guide to stacking QB & WRs that he wrote for PlayerProfiler: “Work smarter, not harder”.

Josh’s weekly content includes 🔥 articles and a 15-minute podcast, the ‘Player Prop Happy Hour’, discussing well researched bets they like. His big take for the rest of the season? Marquise Brown might win leagues:

Week 6 Rankings

Matthew Stafford | QB6 - Josh has Stafford as the premiere streaming option this week. Pacing for over 4,900 yards but only 17 TDs - Kupp’s return should change his fortune and the Cards have given up at least 34 points in consecutive weeks - this is a great environment for Stafford.

Rhamondre Stevenson | RB25 - The Patriots have a 50-50 committee between Dre and Zeke, and Josh believes we should bench Rhamondre until he separates.

DeAndre Hopkins | WR16 - Hop is only averaging 12.3 points to start the season, but he had 22 PPR FP in Week 5, proving that his underlying usage suggests better days ahead (14.xPPR). He’s yet to score a TD, despite six red zone targets… it’s coming.

Tweet of the Day

Bill Belichick and the Patriots moving on? The Athletic reported this week that an increasingly frustrated Robert Kraft is open to dismissing Belichick if New England's struggles continue.

This is the first time since Kraft bought the team that the Patriots lost two games by 30 points in the same season. And they did it in back to back weeks.

Could Bill 'Fantasy Football Doesn't Mean Anything to Me' Belichick leave the Pats?

Thanks for joining us, get after it today. And remember: if David Njoku can play an NFL with these burns to his face, you can do anything! Seriously though — get well soon, Chief!

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean

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