Good morning. It's Thursday. Another day for me to disappoint my mother, and another chance for the NFL to disappoint you. Carson Wentz and the 1-4 Commanders vs Justin Fields and the less total completions than Cooper Kupp has catches Bears.

The one glimmer of hope: Marshawn Lynch is joining the Amazon TNF pregame, with his debut coming this week.

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MARKET

📈 Breece Hall has cemented himself as the RB1 in NYJ while Rhamondre Stevenson has the bell-cow, three-down back role for the foreseeable future.

AJ Dillon's backfield touch rate has declined since Week 1 (maybe buy low?), meanwhile Tyler Lockett has proven to be Geno Smith's favourite target. JuJu forgot how to catch a football.

DEEP DIVES

The idea is you pick up a player the week before everyone wants to grab them off the waiver wire. This column wins leagues like no other. Last week, the perfect pickup was Khalil Shakir (nailed it). This week's players, available in almost every league, worth considering:

• Kyren Williams - Available in 99% of leagues, Williams is returning from an injury to become the Rams RB3, but he might be the best runner on the team. Prior to Week 1, Adam Schefter basically called Williams this year's Elijah Mitchell.

• Deejay Dallas (1.5%) - It is expected that Kenneth Walker will receive the bulk of the carries with Penny out for the season, HC Pete Carroll said that Deejay Dallas will see an increased workload as well (passing downs). Travis Homer will also be in the mix but isn't eligible to return until Week 8.

• Tevin Coleman (3.7%) - Kyle Shanahan has loved Coleman since his Falcons days. Tevin was promoted to the 49ers active roster after going off for 67 total yards and 2 TDs in Week 5 and is the clear RB2 behind Jeff Wilson. Jimmy G called Coleman "Mr Reliable." With highlight plays like this, Coleman proved he can still contribute.

• Joshua Kelley (3%) - Kelley has cemented himself as the Chargers RB2, after out-touching Sony Michel 12-1 and out-snapping him 27-2. A Chargers beat-writer described Kelly as "confident, decisive and explosive." While Ekeler is clearly the RB1 option, Kelley appears to be the next man up and has flex appeal if he continues his strong play. "It was only a matter of time until the Chargers started to feed Joshua Kelley."

Also, why is no one talking about Deon Jackson? He was the only bright spot for the Colts running for 62 yards on 13 carries and catching 4 passes for 29 yards. Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines are both still questionable to play but Jackson is worth stashing regardless given his production last Thursday night.

To be honest, we only included Deejay Dallas so we could show you his team photo. 

THURSDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

IT CAN'T BE WORSE THAN LAST WEEK

Yup, the Washington Commanders take on the Chicago Bears tonight. We can do this. "If you’re considering a bet on Chicago, your biggest concern is the Bears’ bottom-tier offensive line mitigating Washington’s front in pass protection, particularly in the interior. If you’re betting on Washington, you’re betting on Wentz to play well against a beatable Bears team."

Passing:

• Carson Wentz - Despite HC Ron Rivera throwing blaming the losses solely on him, Wentz has been a solid fantasy QB this year (QB9). Wentz will be without Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas, Dyami Brown is questionable, and Wentz has at least 1 turnover in every game this season. Don't expect miracles.

• Justin Fields - Fields is coming off his best game of the season (by a mile) in Minnesota last week. His 39 rushing yards per game doesn't make up for his lack of passing stats. No reason to play him here.

Rushing:

• Brian Robinson - Robinson saw 75% of the team's total share of carries last week and out-touched Gibson 9-3. Chicago has given up 170 yards per game on the ground. Flexing here.

• Antonio Gibson & J.D McKissic - Please don't start Gibson, who was firmly relegated to backup duties. McKissic has fringe value as the pass-catching back but no reason to think the Commanders will be down big and throwing often.

• David Montgomery: While it wasn't pretty (1.67 YPC), Montgomery saw the bulk of the work (72% of snaps) in his return from injury last week. He also added 62 receiving yards and a TD. Start.

• Khalil Herbert: In the 3 full games that Montgomery played, Herbert is averaging only 6 touches with a 25% snap share. While he could see some more work in a short week to keep Montgomery fresh, don't bet on it.

Receiving:

• Curtis Samuel - After a strong start to the season, Samuel cooled. He's failed to score double digits in 3 straight games and hasn't received a carry since Week 3. He still leads the team in targets and routes ran (5th in the NFL) giving him a high floor/high upside.

• Terry McLaurin - Leads the Commanders in receiving yards (326) but hasn't scored a TD since Week 1. Still, McLaurin's had double digit performances in 4/5 games. With Commanders pass-catchers injured, McLaurin is tempting. But Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson could be shadowing Terry (Next Gen Stats has Jaylon Johnson with zero *targets* (!!) allowed in 51 coverage snaps, best in NFL).

• Darnell Mooney - Mooney is WR80 on the season.

• Cole Kmet - Despite running routes on 75% of plays over the past 3 weeks, he hasn't scored a TD since NFTs were fun (2020). His season high of yards is 45 last week.

QUICK SLANTS

• Kennan Allen was participating in individual drills on Wednesday, progressing towards finally playing on Monday night. He hasn't played since Week 1.

• Despite being in a walking book after the game on Sunday, Tyreek Hill is expected to play Sunday against the Vikings.

• Eno Benjamin TIME: Although it was just a walkthrough, James Connor did not participate on Wednesday and Darrell Williams has already been ruled out.

• Amari Cooper has a 35% target share when facing man coverage. Browns face the Patriots in Week 5 who play man 4th most in the NFL. Startttt.

• Jaylen Warren out-snapped Najee Harris in Week 5, but Adam Levitan noted Harris had a 12-1 touches edge in the first half. Warren played more in the second since the Steelers were down by so much.

The Miami Dolphins team captains decided to get serious. They removed the ping-pong table in their locker room to focus on the game. Miami by 50 this week.

Thanks for joining us this AM! Go be GREAT!

Jake, Eddie, Matt & Coach Wehler

Tweet of the Day

You best believe I got Enjo Benjamin though!!