Good morning. Football is BACK baby. Huge congrats to (potential future) Morning Huddle subscriber Dan Campbell on the W!

"I didn't learn anything. I got verification of what I already knew." - Dan Campbell after the Lions win.

Last night, David Montgomery looked like this year’s Jamaal Williams, while Jahmyr Gibbs looked like my fantasy team needs him to get more touches.

The Chiefs struggled without Travis Kelce, fielding the Bishop Sycamore wideouts instead. Seriously. Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore turned eight targets into one catch for 1 yard.

But it’s still Week 1, so don’t hit panic yet. Give it at least another week (but sit both) - read on for why...

Life Hack: if you sleep through an exam and need a medical note, no need to pull trig. Just head to the doctor’s office and look at the Chiefs receiving chart from last night.

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RANKINGS

Matthew Stafford dropped to QB23 after losing his breakfast buddy, Cooper Kupp. Stafford isn’t mobile, has a sad receiving corps led by Tyler Higbee and is 35. Pass.

Javonte Williams moved up to RB21 as his recovery from knee surgery continues better than expected. HC Sean Payton said Williams should have a “big role” in the offense — and Payton has had an RB finish in the top 15 in 10 straight seasons. Williams makes it 11.

Rashee Rice has joined the rankings at WR74 after a solid debut last night. Although he is a “package player” for now, Rice’s role in KC’s high-powered offense could grow throughout the year.

Christian Watson dropped to WR23 after suffering a hamstring injury. We were above consensus on Watson, but we tempering expectations with the likelihood of a slow start and the possibility of this injury lingering.

Tyler Higbee has moved up to TE12. He should be Stafford’s go-to target with Kupp injured. Last year, with Kupp out for the final 8 weeks, Higbee drew a 20.8% target share — 5th best among TEs.

Story

Principles to Win Your League

Four strategies for you to prove you are better than your friends. If these don’t work, get a better job. Or rent a Cadillac.

1. Upside Players Only

Scott Barrett published “Upside Wins Championships” introducing a draft strategy describing why UPSIDE IS EVERYTHING. Leagues are won and lost by teams who correctly identified key league-winners and rode those players to a Championship.

In other words, our goal when trading should be to acquire players with this upside. Last year it was Travis Kelce, Josh Jacobs, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Austin Ekeler.

Typically, that means acquiring the best running back possible in every league. Like it or not, the RB position is THE most-important position in fantasy.

Per Scott’s article on FantasyPoints, RBs make up a majority of any season’s league-winners. Over the past six seasons, 17 RBs earned their owners a Win% over 60.0%. Over the same span, only six WRs, three TEs and two QBs reached that threshold. 12 of the top-15 highest-scoring flex-eligible players (by FPG) were running backs.

While Jefferson and Chase feel safer, you’ll have a better chance of winning your league if you acquire Ekeler or McCaffrey. By Week 4 or 5, we should have a good idea of this year’s top RBs. Be ready to pounce and don’t be afraid to overpay. It’s easier to add another 8-11 PPG WR than one 20 PPG RB.

2. Trade for Rookies. Later.

Everyone is excited about rookies in the offseason. I get it. But by Week 3-4, things sour. Managers are disappointed. They are open to deals. The problem for them is that’s the time when rookies figure it out. They see more touches, earn their coaches trust. It’s a tale as old as time.

In 2014, Odell Beckham Jr. missed the start of his rookie year, not playing in training camp, the preseason or the first month of the regular season. His first game wasn’t until Week 5, and it wasn’t until Week 9 that he put up more than 44 yards. OBJ still finished as WR6 as a rookie. 

In 2018, Nick Chubb was stuck behind Carlos Hyde. Chubb didn’t have a single game with a snap percentage greater than 40% until Week 7. Between Week 6 and 7, Chubb went from 3 carries to 18. From there on out, he was a league winner - finishing as RB16 despite the slow start.

In 2020, Justin Jefferson was dropped in many leagues after finishing Weeks 1-2 with 3.6 and 5.9 points on 5 total catches. In Week 3, JJ had 27.0 points, with 7 catches for 175 yards and a TD. He never looked back.

In 2022, Kenneth Walker had less than 10 points total after Week 4. From Weeks 5-18, Walker only had two games outside the Top-24 RBs, finishing as RB16.

Christian Watson was “the guy who dropped that deep ball” until Week 10. It took 10 weeks (!!) for him to go nuclear, but from Weeks 10-14 he became a must-start and had an insane 8 TDs in a four game stretch.

Of course, we don’t know which rookie to trade for yet (*cough Quentin Johnston*) who may start slow or see less volume behind a JAG starter (*cough Jahmyr Gibbs*).

3. Win Your Waivers. Early.

Each Wednesday going forward, we’ll publish our famous Deep Dives. Famous because last season subscribes added Tyler Allgeier a week earlier than their league mates and Jerick McKinnon for the fantasy playoffs (hint: don’t share this newsletter, even if we beg).

The idea is we list three players available in almost every league, so you can stash them the week before everyone wants to grab them off the waiver wire. Imagine adding Christian Watson the week before his breakout? That’s the goal.

4. Don’t Have Fun

Don’t even think about it, Jabroni.

MARKETS

Gibbs It Up, Detroit

📈 We’re trading for Jahmyr Gibbs. Rookie Alvin Kamara finished as the PPR RB3 in 2017 despite double-digit carries in only 5 games and seeing 60%+ snaps in only 4 games, per @NoExpertFF.

Gibbs didn’t see volume in last night’s game against the Chiefs. That’s OK. What’s important is that he looked good.

Good reminder by @YZR_Fantasy that first-year RB Week 1 carries don’t matter:

• Jonathan Taylor: 9 (finished RB5)

• D’Andre Swift: 3 (RB18)

• JK Dobbins: 7 (RB22)

• Kenneth Walker: 4 (RB16)

👀 We’re starting Javonte Williams. All signs are pointing to RB2 numbers out of the gate. More cautious fantasy managers may still want to wait and see, but that’s a mistake.

📉 We’re borderline dropping Kendre Miller. Things are not looking good for Miller’s availability this week. Per @adamlevitan, the best path to Miller outperforming his ADP was to impress during Alvin Kamara’s 3-game suspension and force the Saints to keep him involved. Starting the season with a hamstring injury makes unlikely.

📈 We’re starting David Njoku. From Week 13 onwards (with Deshaun Watson at QB), Njoku saw 10 redzone targets, 3 more than any other TE in the NFL. In Week 1 he gets a Bengals team that gave up the 7th most YPG to TEs and lost both its starting safeties. Top-5 TE potential.

📉 We’re sitting Panthers not named Sanders. With DJ Chark (hamstring) unlikely to play this weekend and Adam Thielen (ankle) missing practice, rookie QB Bryce Young could be down his top two WRs in his first NFL start and will rely heavily on rookie WR Jonathan Mingo, who should be added everywhere.

👀 Keep an eye on the status of these injured players ahead of this weekend:

• Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) - added to injury report on Thursday

• Terry McLaurin (toe) - full participant on Thursday

• Zack Moss (arm) - limited in practice all week

• George Kittle (groin) - full participant and should play

• Christian Watson (hamstring) - did not practice on Thursday while teammate Romeo Doubs returned

• Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) - returned to practice and might play

• Marquise Brown (hamstring) - limited in practice on Thursday

• Mark Andrews (quad) - limited in practice all week

Depth Charts

Rookie: Marvin Mims Jr.

Rookie speedster Marvin Mims Jr. could make an early impact in Denver. Sean Payton’s first pick with the Broncos, Mims is a 2nd rounder with 4.38 speed who has a starting role after injuries ravaged the Broncos WR room.

Mims is a Texas high school football legend — gaining 2,629 receiving yards his senior year, the most by any player in the nation’s history, and ending his career with a Texas state record 5,485 receiving yards.

His success didn’t stop there… in his junior year at Oklahoma – with his 3rd different QB, his 2nd different head coach, and 3rd different WR coach – Mims had his most productive season yet, gaining 1,083 receiving yards (2.1x as much as the next-closest receiver on the team), per Scott Barrett.

Barrett’s thread on Mims (which you can read here) illustrates why he may be the 2nd best WR prospect in this year’s class — behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Most notably, Barrett highlights the fact that among all Power 5 WRs — excluding JSN — Mims ranks:

• 1st in career YPRR

• 1st in career YPRR when lined up outside

• 1st in career YPT

• 1st in career depth-adjusted YPT over expectation

With early opportunities and an abundance of natural talent, Mims could earn targets quickly in Mile High. Join the bandwagon.

QUICK SLANTS

Enough Olave Garden

📖 Read Dynasty, in Theory: Models and Rookie WRs by Adam Harstad of Footballguys ($).

Adam’s model has a great track record at identifying completely off-the-radar players before they really break out: Top 10 scores for players who were drafted outside the first two rounds included rookies like Terry McLaurin, Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Adam’s rankings for sophomore WRs (against the all-time rankings of 173 WRs) explain why you need to trade for Chris Olave everywhere you possibly can:

1. 121.9 - Chris Olave (6th best all time of 173)

2. 116.8 - Drake London (12th)

3. 113.7 - Christian Watson (19th)

4. 109.8 - Garrett Wilson (31st)

5. 105.9 - Jahan Dotson (53rd) 👀 

📖 Read Week 1 Dynasty Breakout Watch. It's Time To Buy Jordan Addison by Sam Wallace of FantasyLife. This might be the last opportunity to buy Addison at a reasonable price before his career begins.

📖 Read Week 1 Fantasy Football Start/Sit by Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points. A couple notable takeaways:

Start Raheem Mostert: “Mostert should receive the bulk of the carries and get the goal-line work against what was a very weak Chargers run defense a year ago that allowed 5.42 YPC (most). Mostert is an RB2 start with top-15 positional upside if Miami is hitting on all cylinders offensively.”

Sit Gabe Davis, who has a tough matchup against the Jets secondary: “Last season, New York allowed -8.6 (!!) schedule-adjusted FP below their opponents' average to opposing outside WRs. This was easily the toughest matchup in the league for WRs and might get even tougher this season. Davis is a boom-or-bust WR4 in this spot.”

🎙️Listen to the Team-by-Team Week 1 Preview episodes of the Establish the Run podcast. In two episodes, Levitan and Silva discuss the latest happening for every team in the league ahead of the season.

Something to watch in the Browns’ passing game: “I do not think that Elijah Moore is a lock to be ahead of [Donovan Peoples-Jones]… DPJ quietly had over 800 yards last year and his game meshes well with Deshaun Watson.” You can listen to both of the episodes: AFC & NFC.

🎙️ Listen to the Week 1 Sleepers episode of the Late Round Podcast where JJ Zachariason talks about low-rostered players to plug into your lineup if you are already impacted by injuries.

Did you draft Cooper Kupp? Consider adding Rashid Shaheed: “Shaheed, as a rookie, ended last year with an absurd 14.4 yards per target rate and one of the best yards per route run numbers that you’re going to find for a first year wideout. Rashid Shaheed can make 1 big play payoff in fantasy.”

Tweet of the Day

Seriously though. I’m not holding these handcuffs for pleasure.

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