Good morning. Today is Week 9, which means we'll be switching to a 3x per week format going forward. Would love to hear your feedback on the newsletter for the remaining weeks of the season. A quick, 3-minute survey to help us improve the Huddle - with an entrant being eligible to win an NFL jersey of their choice. 

Highlights

Targets, Fades & Chumps

Target Darnell Mooney vs CB Kader Kohou, Miami Dolphins. In PFF's 5 WR/CB matchups to target and 5 to avoid, they highlight how Mooney's 27.3% targets per route run rate ranks 11th, and his 2.74 yards per route run ranks seventh. 

"Three weeks ago, Chicago increased Justin Fields’ play-action rate and his designed run attempts. Since then, Fields’ big-time throw rate increased from 27th among QBs to 3.8%, which ranks 9th. Correspondingly, Mooney’s per-game targets improved from 4.0 to 7.0." Mooney is also the No. 5 player on Josh Hermeyer’s Week 9 Air Yards Buy-Low Model and faces a Dolphins secondary with a 50.6 PFF coverage grade, 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Don't be afraid to start Antonio Gibson. In Fantasy Life's Dwain McFarland's Rankings & Tiers. Week 9, Dwain explains why J.D. McKissic's absence (neck) "is huge for Gibson, who should take over all the passing down work and spell Brian Robinson Jr. on 35-45% of rushing plays." While Gibson's "route participation has been limited (33%)" - this was due to McKissic's presence. With the pass-catching role to himself, Gibson "could see double-digit targets in this contest and projects as a high-end RB2 with big-time RB1 upside."

If James Conner returns this week, how should managers expect the Cardinals' backfield to shake out? (video)

Terry McLaurin is back in the chat. In Dwain McFarland's legendary Utilization Report, he explains how McLaurin has "registered back-to-back season-highs in target share (26% and 29%) with Taylor Heinicke under center. The veteran receiver also leads the team with a 1.74 YPRR," moving back into low-end WR2 territory.

Start: Cordarrelle Patterson vs. Chargers. "By his own admission, Patterson is “90% healthy and in an amazing spot considering that the Chargers are the premier run funnel defense once again. This front seven is getting shredded to the tune of 6.07 YPC (worst)," per Fantasy Points' Week 9 Start/Sit. 

Two important injury updates:

Start: Allen Lazard at Lions. "Lazard draws a phenomenal matchup in Week 9 against a Lions team giving up the 5th-most FPG to opposing WR1s (18.8) and the most fantasy points over expectation to opposing slot WRs (+150%), which is where Lazard ran 63% of his routes in Week 7 (with Sammy Watkins back)," per Fantasy Points' phenomenal Week 9 Start/Sit article. 

Mike Evans time could be here. "The Rams have allowed 118% more FPG than expected to opposing outside WRs, suggesting Mike Evans could finally have a big game, as he’s seen position-leading usage over the last two weeks (26.0 XFP/G)," per Fantasy Points' Week 9 Chart Porn.

Jonathan Taylor hasn’t been himself; Colts believe they can change that. "Blocking, or the lack thereof, has been arguably the Colts’ most startling issue this season," per The Athletic's article.

Kadarius Toney expected to make his Chiefs debut Sunday vs. Titans. "Toney was a full participant in this week’s practices, and he appears to be fully healthy after sustaining injuries to each of his hamstrings earlier this season with the Giants. Toney could be the Chiefs’ newest punt returner, and HC Andy Reid stated Friday that the team has a few plays that involve Toney, who could help be a decoy in the team’s passing attack," per The Athletic's article. 

"[Tony Pollard] played a total of 30 plays, and I think that's his max - as far as total play count - because then the juice doesn't become the same and he's not as quick, not as fast," per Cowboys RB coach Skip Peete in this article.

More Rhamondre Stevenson hype:

QUICK SLANTS

• PFF's 2022 NFL Playoff Picture: According to PFF's model, Tampa Bay has a 70% chance of making the playoffs if they beat the Rams in Week 9. Those chances fall to 45% with a loss.

• 2023 NFL Mock Draft: Lions go with Bryce Young at No. 1, Texans make Quentin Johnston WR1, while Bijan Robinson goes to the run-heavy Falcons.

• Snyders are exploring selling the Washington Commanders. A city dreams. Again.

• Rams activated RB Ronnie Rivers from their practice squad but did not activate RB Kyren Williams; his return will have to wait at least another week.

• Alvin Kamara's legal case had a big update (the video was released). This thread is a great recap on what's happened.

Thanks for joining us this morning, let’s go get some W's.

Jake, Eddie, Matt

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