Good morning. Anyone else miss the part of the fantasy football season where we were drafting and full of optimism? 

QUARTERBACKS

Captain Kirk

Kirk Cousins was QB3 in passer rating (118.9) and QB4 in PFF Rating (80.7). All Kirk Cousin's does is outplay his ADP (by a wide margin) each season, but we struggle to buy in. If he's available and you need a QB, I'd pounce.

• Jalen Hurts dropped back 42 times Week 1, a sharp increase from a 32.7 avg last year. He also led the league in fantasy points scored via the rush at quarterback this week with 15 and looks poised for a huge season.

• Geno Smith: “They wrote me off. I ain’t write back though.” You tell 'em, Geno.

As a Trey Lance owner and truther, I'm worried. The Athletic writer @LombardiHimself hand-tracked all 49ers QBs in practice this offseason - Lance had the lowest completion percentage (54.7%) in camp, behind Nate Sudfeld (73.5%) and Brock Purdy (69.3%). Yikes. Still, he runs the ball (QB2 in designed rushing attempt share at 28%). 

Jerry Jones said on 105.3 The Fan that the Cowboys won’t put Dak Prescott on injured reserve and his injured quarterback could return within the next four games.

Not feeling great about Lamar Jackson this week:

RUNNING BACKS

Quadzilla Strikes

Christian McCaffrey's workload was very un-CMC like: 11 carries & 5 targets was his lowest touch total in a game he didn't leave injured since 2018... When he did touch the ball, he was the best player on the field. GIVE HIM THE DAMN BALL, MATT RHULE (video).

If Trevor Lawrence doesn’t overthrow Travis Etienne on a wide open TD, and if Etienne caught his second wide open TD opportunity… He would’ve been RB4 on the week. On 10 touches for 24.3 points. Let a man dream.

• Darrell Henderson was one of only three running backs who played over 80% of their team’s snaps. The other two: CMC and Saquon. Elite company. Buy.

• Alvin Kamara was dealing with a rib issue Sunday, but Saints HC Dennis Allen said “I think he’s going to be fine.” Buy low.

From Week 10 on in 2021 and Week 1 this season, Aaron Jones (12.7) has averaged four less opportunities per game than A.J. Dillon (16.7), yet was drafted 3-4 rounds earlier? 

WIDE RECEIVERS

This Year's Cooper Kupp

It's official: Justin Jefferson got Kupp'd. "Last season, Jefferson saw 24% of his targets against a linebacker or safety in primary coverage. In Week 1, that number was 60% -- those targets turned into 5 receptions for 148 yards and 2 TDs."

The mismatched opportunities for Jefferson is due to HC Kevin O'Connell's offensive system - one that he employed with the Rams to get Cooper Kupp similar looks in 2021. We all saw how that turned out. Big season incoming.

• Amon-Ra St. Brown now has 8+ catches in 7 straight games, one behind the all-time record held by Michael Thomas and Antonio Brown. St. Brown was targeted on a team-high 33% of his routes and looks to be in for a monster season.

• Jahan Dotson is a 100% baller and it’s not a shock. Best hands among the top prospects in the 2022 WR class & a 96th percentile (!!) success rate vs. zone coverage.

• Davante Adams saw an insane 46% target share in his first NFL game with Derek Carr.

With Keenan Allen unlikely to play in Week 2, make sure Josh Palmer isn't on your waiver wire. Palmer averages 15.8 fantasy points if he starts and sees 6+ targets. And start Mike Williams, who has averaged 20.2 FPG (~WR4), 8.0 targets per game, and 74.8 YPG in his 4 career games without Keenan Allen (@JakeTribby).

Treylon Burks went 3-55 on 5 targets and 13 routes (4.23 YPRR). All other TEN WRs: 1.58 YPRR. He's a clear BUY or HOLD. Video of all 13 routes per @2hats1mike.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is a buy right now. "He had 8 first half targets and went 6-79 (another deep target not counted due to penalty)."

Justin Jefferson is that dude, Exhibit 46:

TIGHT END

Pitts Problems?

Kyle Pitts had disappointing results but led the Falcons in snaps played and tied with Drake London for the team lead with a 22% target share, per @DavisMattek. Pitts was third among TEs in air yards and TE5 in expected fantasy points (13.0).

• Here's a list of every team's TE leader in Week 1 route rate, sorted from highest to lowest.

• Tyler Higbee (94%) had a higher route rate than Darren Waller (80%).

• Mike Gesicki played fewer snaps than Durham Smythe and ran a route only 41% of plays. Can be dropped.

CONTENT

Y'all got any more of that content?

Quality reads/listens for that fantasy fix we all deserve - without paywalls:

1. @dwainmcfarland’s Fantasy Football Utilization Report outlines why Saquon's back, Fournette is a BUY & Gabe Davis is a sell high.

2. @TBagleySports provides a team-by-team breakdown of everyone's health in his 2022 NFL Week 1 Injury Report & Recap

3. PFF's Rest of Season Fantasy Football Rankings following NFL Week 1 has Saquon too low.

For all you keeper and dynasty fiends, load up on 2023 picks:

QUICK SLANTS

• HC Mike Tomlin on rookie RB Jaylen Warren’s first game: “He didn’t urinate down his leg and that’s a great place to begin.”

• Tyreek Hill on HC Mike McDaniel: “McDaniel’s gonna need a wheel barrow for his nuts to carry them around.”

• Seattle Seahawks star safety Jamal Adams is expected to be out for the season.

• This video shows the first-ever minute of NFL RedZone from 13 years ago.

• This behind the scenes video of safety Justin Reid kicking for the Chiefs is awesome.

It's a great day to be great. Let's ride. 

Jake

Tweet of the Day

Kev hacked our monthly planner: