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🏈 Blowing Leads
Injury updates, must-start RBs and much more...
Good morning. Yesterday was the first Saturday with NFL football, which means your significant other didn't get "quality time" with you. But, it is a worthy sacrifice they must make for us to enjoy football all weekend long. Just in time for the fantasy playoffs.
Yes, bad news. After reportedly seeing ten!! different doctors, Jets QB Mike White will not be cleared for Sunday's game. Despite the Jets asking every doctor in New York to clear Mike White, Zach Wilson will start. There's a chance Mike White misses W16 too...
White wanted to play and has practiced but Jets doctors are not signing off.
Today's newsletter covers injury updates and starts/sits. If it works, we are geniuses. If it backfires, it's not your fault - blame us.
Who’s Out?
The Boston Globe
Patriots RB Damien Harris is out, per @FieldYates, while Rhamondre Stevenson is questionable after not practicing on Wednesday and Thursday and logging a "limited" practice on Friday. The good news? The Patriots not activating JJ Taylor is an extremely strong indicator that Rhamondre Stevenson is good to go.
RBs Pierre Strong Jr., Kevin Harris, and potentially JJ Taylor will all be in the mix for an expanded role if Stevenson misses (and even if he plays).
Quick Jonathan Taylor update:
Initial tests showed that Colts’ RB Jonathan Taylor suffered a sprained ankle during today’s loss, per source. While it is considered “nothing major”, Taylor will undergo additional testing, and with the Colts 4-9-1 record, it is uncertain when or if he’ll play again this season.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
11:32 PM • Dec 17, 2022
Russell Wilson (concussion) will not play Sunday, which means Brett Rypien starts at QB. Broncos WRs Courtland Sutton (hamstring) and Kendall Hinton (hamstring) were ruled out, leaving Jerry Jeudy as a risky but desperation play at WR.
Texans WR Brandin Cooks (calf), RB Damien Pierce (ankle), and WR Nico Collins (foot) will all sit out on Sunday against the Chiefs. Dedicated to the tank.
The Bears ruled WR Chase Claypool (knee) out for Sunday, leaving TE Cole Kmet as the top receiving option for Justin Fields, who (probably) plans to just run anyways.
Steelers QB Kenny Pickett is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game vs. the Panthers per @AdamSchefter. If Kenny sits, some Steelers fans are praying Mason Rudolph gets the call.
Eagles did not activate TE Dallas Goedert Saturday, so he is not eligible to play Sunday at Chicago. Goedert still is on track to return from his shoulder injury next week - @AdamSchefter.
Other players ruled out ahead of Sunday:
Kyler Murray
Corey Davis
Mark Ingram
Treylon Burks
Hayden Hurst
Who’s In?
Bengals WR Tee Higgins (hamstring) was a full participant in practice on Friday after being limited earlier in the week. Although officially questionable, Tee confirmed he is good to go for Sunday's game (video). But after last week's goose-egg, we need the same confirmation from Zac Taylor? WR Tyler Boyd (finger) is also listed as questionable, but practiced fully on Friday.
Other notable players who are questionable and should be monitored before lineups lock:
Q
* Rhamondre, Damien Harris, Jakobi
* Tee Higgins, Boyd, TTaylor
* Marquise Brown
* Jeff Wilson
* Goedert
* Waller, Renfrow
* DJ Moore
* Julio
* KToney
* Laviska
* Dwayne Washington, Juwan, Trautman
* David BellQ/P
* Josh Jacobs
* TLawrence
* Richie JamesIN
* Tyler Huntley— Establish The Run (@EstablishTheRun)
11:46 PM • Dec 16, 2022
Starters
Section 215
Start Zonovan Knight, who has the 5th best matchup this week per PFF and has earned an 87.5 PFF rushing grade so far, sixth among running backs with 40 or more carries this season. Knight has scored 32.5 fantasy points over the last two weeks, eighth-best among running backs over that period.
Two nuggets from Joe Dolan's Week 15 Mismatch Report on FantasyPoints:
Dallas’ run defense is solid, not great, but Jacksonville has really struggled to give Travis Etienne room to run of late. He was completely shut down in a brutal matchup with the Titans in Week 14, and it’s a major issue because Jacksonville just doesn’t throw him the ball. He has just 6 targets over his last four games, and has gone without a target in two of his last three. Why?
DeAndre Hopkins (Ari) vs. Patrick Surtain (Den) — It’ll be interesting to see how much the Cardinals move Hopkins into the slot — he runs about 26% of his routes from there — to avoid Surtain, who almost never goes inside. After Davante Adams and DJ Moore combined to score 3 TD on Surtain in Weeks 11 and 12, he’s surrendered just 5 catches for 41 yards against the Ravens and Chiefs the last two weeks, including 2 catches for 20 yards against Kansas City. (One catch each for JuJu Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce.)
Some quality takes from @dwainmcfarland's rankings and tiers on FantasyLife:
"Since taking the lead early-down role in W10, Isiah Pacheco averages 16 rushing attempts and one target per game. Houston allows the most rushing attempts (33.0) and yards (165) per game in non-overtime play. Pacheco faces the Texans and has a shot at a 20-plus-touch game in a contest where KC is favored by two TDs." Borderline must-start.
"Justin Herbert has averaged 21.8 fantasy points per game since Keenan Allen's return. No other team allows more fantasy points via the passing game than the Titans, who allow 296 yards and 1.9 TDs per contest. He faces the Titans this week, making Herbert a SMASH play."
"Brian Robinson Jr. averages 17.3 rushing attempts per game and gets a great matchup against a Giants run defense, allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (147) in non-overtime play. Robinson is a low-end RB2 this week."
"Marquise Brown is questionable for Sunday. Kyler Murray is done for the season. Colt McCoy's upside is limited. The Broncos allow only 202 yards per game passing - the third-fewest in the NFL. Brown is a mid-range WR3." He's a risky start if he plays, lean towards sitting if you can.
Per @AdamKoffler, the Chiefs allow the fourth-highest percentage of total wider receiver fantasy points allowed to slot receivers at 36%. Chris Moore has run 66.4% of his routes out of the slot this season. We have a perfect storm for another eruption spot for Moore.
From Matthew Berry's Love/Hate for Week 15:
"Since Week 10, New England is allowing less than 200 passing yards per game. And on the season, only three quarterbacks have scored 17+ against the Patriots and two of them had a rushing score... Derek Carr has less than 30 pass attempts in back-to-back games." Park Carr on your bench.
"The Jaguars have allowed 100-plus yards to tight ends in 3/4 games, and a TD to a tight end in 3/4, as well. Dalton Schultz has a 20% target share in Dak Prescott returned form injury. Schultz is a top 5 TE this week." Start with confidence.
"Since Week 9, Mike Evans is just WR59 in PPG and has five straight games with less than 60 receiving yards. It likely won't get better against a Bengals team that allows the third-lowest catch rate to WRs and the second-fewest TDs to the position." Sit Evans if you can afford to.
QUICK SLANTS
The Texans placed star rookie RB Dameon Pierce on injured reserve. His season is over. - @FieldYates
After the Colts blew a 33-point lead yesterday, Matt Ryan is now on the losing end of the largest comeback in NFL history and the most iconic comeback in NFL history, when the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead to TB12.
Former WR Julian Edelman said that he's heard from three teams this year about a potential return to the NFL. Edelman turned them all down and added, "the situation would have to be in New England with a New England team that's a contender." - @PhilAPerry
1-QB Dynasty Trade Value Chart for December by @PeakedInHS_FF. Biggest jump is Christian Watson (+17).
Thanks for all your support, go eat those Ws.
Jake, Eddie, Matt
Tweet of the Day
Never change, Mike McDaniel
Somebody said Mike McDaniel coaches like his dad left town for a few weeks and he's running the business until he gets back
— Emily Staker (@Emilystaker)
6:16 AM • Dec 16, 2022
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