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RANKINGS

QB Sam Howell - who Ron Rivera admitted he didn’t even know how good he was - moved up to QB24 after an impressive preseason (122.0 passer rating, 3 TDs, 0 INTs). Although he hasn’t lived up to the hype after his sophomore year at UNC, Howell is a dual-threat QB who rushed for 828 yards and 11 TDs his junior year. An intriguing flier in 2QB/Superflex leagues.

WR Cooper Kupp fell to WR10 after re-aggravating his hamstring injury. It’s never a good sign when you have to travel across the country to see a “body specialist”. His ceiling is still the overall WR1, but he’s a sketchy pick so early in drafts.

Correspondingly moved WR Van Jefferson to WR59, as he will be the Rams’ WR1 if Kupp misses time. Jefferson’s ceiling may not be special, but he could be a solid volume play. And don’t forget about TE Tyler Higbee.

Rookie WR Puka Nacua has been added as WR79. Sean McVay says he expects him to be an “immediate contributor” for the team (especially if Kupp misses time).

WR Mecole Hardman has dropped to WR78 after reportedly falling behind 100-year-old Randall Cobb on the depth chart. While you wouldn’t want to start either of these guys, Hardman still has a chance to catch a deep TD every now and then if you had no choice but to put him in your lineup.

We are updating these rankings 3x per week, free for all subscribers throughout the season.

STORY

Boldest Predictions in Football

Jaxon Smith-Njigba surpasses both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as Seattle's WR1 from Andrew Lalama’s Bold Predictions on Rotoballer. “Smith-Njigba was an excellent prospect who was taken 20th overall and flashed in a big way during training camp for the Seahawks. He's an unbelievable talent in terms of hands and quickness.

While both Metcalf and Lockett are good players, JSN offers a WR1 upside neither has. JSN may not achieve a huge snap share until the second half of the season. But once he finds his groove, expect him to go nuclear. Remember, Odell Beckham Jr. didn't play in the first month of his legendary rookie season.”

Rachaad White Will Outscore Travis Etienne, from Late Round Fantasy Football’s JJ Zachariason.

“In Rachaad White's lone game last season without Leonard Fournette, he ended up seeing a 21.4% target share while scoring 19.9 PPR points. We shouldn't expect that kind of production from him each week in this not-very-inspiring Buccaneers offense, but he's a strong pass-catcher who has volume upside in an unproven backfield. Meanwhile, Travis Etienne may end up being more of an in-between-the-20's kind of running back.”

D’Andre Swift finishes as a Top 10 RB, from 3 BOLD Fantasy Predictions by Peter Overzet of FantasyLife. If Miles Sanders were still in Philadelphia, where would he be going in drafts? Third round? Fourth round? Swift, a more explosive, dynamic back replaced Sanders yet is the RB29 in drafts.

“The Eagles are not going to pigeonhole Swift into touches that don’t play to his strengths. They know he is a playmaker and they appear to have big plans to use him in the passing game. Swift’s incredible 2023 is going to look so obvious in hindsight.”

Michael Thomas will finish as a Top-20 WR, from Nathan Jahnke of PFF. One of the top WRs in the NFL when healthy, Thomas ranks top-three over the last five seasons in targets (9.6), receptions (7.9), yards (89.0) and PPR points (19.6) per game among WRs.

“New Saints QB Derek Carr’s strengths match up with what Thomas does well, while his weaknesses could be a bad sign for the other wide receivers. Carr has a 94.0 PFF grade over the last five seasons when throwing a crossing route — the fourth-highest for a quarterback with at least 200 crossing attempts. Similarly, he has the second-highest passing grade when throwing slants at 92.8.”

Pat Freiermuth finishes the year as TE3, from CBS Sports’ Heath Cummings.

“Freiermuth's breakout was masked by the fact that Kenny Pickett had a 1.8% touchdown rate. Rookie QBs are notorious for low touchdown rates, but this is an extreme outlier. Even if you think Pickett is one of the worst QBs in the league, you would expect a near doubling of his TD rate, and Freiermuth, with his 30 career red-zone targets, will benefit most.” Last year’s seven TDs puts Freiermuth in the TE3 conversation, so imagine if he improves.

MARKETS

Richardson to the Races

📈 Anthony Richardson has the easiest strength of schedule among QBs, per Scott Rinear of Rotoballers. With Jonathan Taylor absent for (at least) the first four games, the entire Colts offense rests on Richardson’s shoulders. He will have ugly moments, but has 2022 Justin Fields’ rushing upside.

Great article in Sports Illustrated on how HC Shane Steichen and the Colts dug through high school and college tape, detailed out 1st-team reps, built an offense in two phases and now have Richardson ready to start Week 1.

📈 Rookie WR Jonathan Mingo saw a 20% target share in the preseason. Mingo’s competition? Adam Thielen (who ranked 4th-worst of qualifying WRs in YPRR (1.06) in 2022), DJ Chark (oft & already injured) and Terrence “underwhelming” Marshall

📉 Ezekiel Elliott has become a top-125 pick in home leagues since signing with New England. Establish the Run’s Evan Silva has Zeke has a fringe top-150 guy and the Patriots have a bottom 3 strength of schedule for RBs this season. Don’t fall for the name recognition. Go for upside.

📈 Colts RB Deon Jackson is expected to start at running back in Week 1 versus the Jacksonville Jaguars, according to sources. Zack Moss (arm) is expected to take over the starting role in Week 2. In deeper leagues, RB Evan Hull should be on your radar. The Colts rookie had a 22.4% reception share in 2022, the sixth-best mark by a Power 5 RB since 2010 - and better than Christian McCaffrey’s best college reception shares (21.1% and 20.7%). Trust me, it will be a committee.

📉 Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren 'will have their roles,' but Dale Lolley of the Steelers’ website suggests the narrative that Warren will pass Harris on the depth chart at some point during the 2023 season is 'simply not true.' Lolley expects Harris to remain the 'No. 1,' while Warren will be the third-down back.

Depth Charts

Rookie: Roschon Johnson

Stuck behind Bijan Robinson in college, Roschon Johnson is looking to create a name for himself in the NFL. One of the hardest backs to bring down in college football - his 0.394 missed tackles forced per touch is the best rate of any Power-5 RB since 2015 (per Scott Barrett) and his 4.28 yards after contact per attempt led all Power-5 RBs in this year’s draft class, beating Bijan’s 4.17 (per Ryan Heath).

While he never got the chance to shine, he made the most of his opportunities - 45 missed tackles on only 94 attempts in 2022 — almost all of them coming on this unbelievable run in the Alamo Bowl. And in his first NFL preseason, Johnson finished 2nd in the league with 8 missed tackles forced on just 28 attempts, while averaging 3.64 yards after contact per attempt (per @MattFFDynasty). The man is simply impossible to bring down.

Much like in college, volume matters. Khalil Herbert is Chicago’s starter and D’Onta Foreman is likely to be the short yardage/goal line back. But thanks to Johnson’s pass-blocking skills (2nd highest PFF pass-blocking grade in this year’s RB class) and receiving ability, he earned a 3rd down role in the Bears’ offense.

An intriguing prospect to keep an eye on throughout the season, Johnson will need more opportunities to make a significant fantasy impact. And he might just get them.

QUICK SLANTS

League. Winners.

📖 Read 5 Players Poised to be League Winners by Nathan Jahnke of PFF.

“Amon-Ra St. Brown was targeted on 28.8% of his routes and caught a pass on 21.9% of his routes, both of which ranked second at the position last season.” St. Brown is also “looking to expand his route tree by becoming more of a deep threat this season.”

📖 Read 3 BOLD Fantasy Predictions by Peter Overzet of FantasyLife.

“Garrett Wilson finishes as THE WR1. The path to an elite season for Wilson is actually fairly obvious on the surface:

• Wilson is an elite prospect who crushed as a rookie with truly horrendous QB play

• He now gets a huge QB upgrade with Aaron Rodgers, who has a long history of aggressively targeting an alpha WR

• He faces essentially zero target competition with the rest of the depth chart looking less like an NFL WR room and more like a 2021 Packers reunion dinner”

📖 Read 2023 Underrated Upside: Wide Receivers by Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points ($).

“Calvin Ridley was the WR4 in FPG back in 2020 – the last time he played anything close to a full season. He did it on a 23.6% target share and 2.44 YPRR (7th-best). That matters — a lot. One of the simpler (but also better) arguments for a player’s upside will always be that they have displayed it before. Past fantasy points are highly predictive of future fantasy points.

The Jaguars ranked 11th in pass plays per game last season (36.7) and 14th in early-down pass rate (61%). You’re potentially looking at Ridley in a high-volume role not unlike what he had as a Falcon – a potential WR1 you can draft at the beginning of Round 4.”

🎙️Listen to the Last-Minute Fantasy Draft Advice from the FantasyLife podcast where Ian Hartitz and Chris Allen discuss late preseason trends and player takes. On how to navigate the inflated prices of high-end QBs and TEs this season:

“Keep in mind the opportunity cost when drafting these players… If you want to have the highest output at RB and WR, you have to draft them in the early rounds. That’s why you should lean towards one or the other; take an elite QB or an elite TE. It allows you the flexibility to have an elite player at one of the onesie positions, and you’re still able to build a strong core without sacrificing too much at the other positions.”

Creator of the Day

Dr. Edwin Porras

In this new series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Dr. Edwin Porras (@FBInjuryDoc) is a Doctor of Physical Therapy and Medical Analyst at Fantasy Points. He was one of the first to sound the alarm on Todd Gurley’s knee back in 2019, and has since become one of the most trusted names for injury news.

Injury Prone?

A fan of the Morning Huddle, Dr. Porras was kind enough to share with us his magnum opus, the Injury Prone Draft Guide and Playbook ($). It answers the questions like is injury prone real? and when should I handcuff? or are rushing QBs more likely to be injured? And the Guide is constantly updated.

Two highlights below - this is the type of guide that helps you figure out when it’s time to sell Zeke and buy Tony Pollard.

Keenan Allen: Injury Worry?

For this first time in his career, Edwin considers Keenan Allen sneaky risky.

The worst case scenario is 2020 Julio Jones, when Jones fought through hamstring injuries until he couldn’t play anymore - the beginning of the end. And since 2018, Keenan Allen is one of just two WRs aged 30+ to miss at least four games due to a hamstring strain. The other? Julio Jones, in 2020…

Keenan Allen is also entering Year 10, a year where a clear drop-off in production occurs. WRs in Year 10 regress to 77.2% of their career baseline production. If that typical regression were to take place, it would move Allen from a 16.7 PPR points per game baseline (last six years) down to 13.0 FPG this season.

Cooper Kupp: Fade the Hammy?

WRs of Kupp's profile who missed time due to a repeat hamstring strains missed an average of 1.55 games. This setback was always in the cards as the NFL has a 30% recurrence rate for hamstring strains. Although he should be back by Week 2 or 3, the Rams may decide to take it slow with the 30 year old as his setback could be because his rehab was too fast.

Kupp not returning until Week 3 or 4 is certainly in the cards and Week 1 is a true coin-ip. Additionally, given his age and this initial recurrence so early, Kupp remains at risk for re-injury the rest of 2023.

Understand that the overall floor outcome (not most likely to happen but a plausible floor) is the Rams slip into irrelevance by midseason, Kupp has another recurrence, and he gets shut down).

You need to read the full Injury Prone Draft Guide here.

Tweet of the Day

Long walks on the beach, smoked brisket, winning a fantasy title and tweets like that.

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