🏈 Brady's Valuable Balls

Good morning. We’ve got an epic newsletter today. But first, great news to start your day: Over 27,000 donations and $1+ million was raised in honor of Josh Allen’s late grandmother for a hospital in Buffalo. Amazing.

Time for a position by position review, highlighting everything you need to know:

Quarterbacks

A great video thread of Kyler Murray’s reads, ball control and overall dominance. Tom Brady is the overall QB1 at age 44, and Aaron Rodgers has somehow been better without D.Adams. Grab a backup QB as the Jalen Hurts benching rumors heat up - Minshew Mania anyone?

• Deshaun Watson legal update: Commissioner Goodell said the NFL is not at a point to put Watson on the Commissioner’s Exempt list - the expectation remains that Watson can play despite the civil cases, police investigation and NFL probe. But you never know.

• Deshaun Watson trade update: Houston Chronicle reported the Dolphins & Texans agreed on trade terms for Watson, but Dolphins want his legal issues resolved before finalizing a deal. The additional interest from the Panthers could force the Dolphins to make a play here.

Running Backs

Damien Harris remains underrated. Per PFF, he’s:

• 1st in runs of 20+ yards

• 2nd in 100+ yards games

• 3rd in TD's and

• 8th in rushing yards (437)

Yet you can probably trade Javonte Williams or Chase Edmonds + a WR for him right now. Speaking of trade targets, Leonard Fournette has quietly scored 15+ fantasy points in each of the past four weeks yet could still be had at a low-end RB2 price. Kyle Shanahan sucks at drafting RBs but is great at signing UDFA’s.

Some ELITE company for Khalil Herbert:

Wide Receivers

Tee Higgins might be the best buy-low in all of fantasy football. He led the entire NFL in targets Week 7 (15), Cincy remains incredibly concentrated, which bodes well for Higgins if their pass rate continues to grow, and Higgins averages 9.5 targets per game over his last four. Higgins’ strengths include contested catches, but it hasn’t translated yet this season (26.7% contested catch rate among league’s worst) - expect a regression to the norm & big games from Tee.

• Sam Hoppen put together a chart showing the concentration of targets based on a team's top three players in target share, both for the full season and for the last four weeks.

• Tre’Quan Smith was locked out of the Saints practice facility following a horrible MNF performance (video) (joking, but shouldn’t be).

• Per Scott Barrett, Cooper Kupp has the most fantasy points by a WR through 7 Games of a season all-time. Terry McLaurin has double the contested targets than the next-closest WR.

• Ja’Marr “Preseason Drops” Chase has the most fantasy points by a rookie WR in their first 7 games since 1950 and leads the entire NFL in yards per route run (with other notable rookie WRs on the list).

This thread highlights why YPRR is so indicative of Rookie WR success.

Tight Ends

Evan Silva makes life easy on us - grab Tonyan & Higbee where you can, and buy buy buy Darren Waller. Mike Gesicki has transformed into a WR. Read Evan’s entire thread on Week 7 takeaways here.

D/ST

Gary Davenport breaks down some of the best team defense plays for Week 8 of the 2021 season, including some streaming options. Interesting option:

• Los Angeles Chargers (vs. New England Patriots): “There's some sneaky value to potentially be had here. Look past the 50-burger the Patriots dropped on the Jets last week and you'll see a team that was allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to defenses entering Week 7. And a team who has beaten the Jets (twice) and Houston Texans for their three wins.”

Deep Dives

The idea is you pick up a player before everyone wants to grab them off the waiver wire. These players, available in almost every league, are worth stashing. Think of it like having Elijah Mitchell or Cordarelle Patterson before Week 1. Ownership in brackets.

• Samaje Perine (7.2%) - Perine split the carries with Joe Mixon in Week 7, totaling 75 yards and a score on 12 touches. Perine saw almost all the rushing opportunities once the game was out of hand, something that’s likely to occur early this Sunday as the 5-2 Bengals take on the 1-5 Jets. Grab Mixon’s handcuff & an almost stand-alone starter.

• Nico Collins (1.6%) - Crazier things have happened than a Brandin Cooks trade at the deadline. Tyrod returns for the Texans soon and Collins, who has 4.45 speed at 6'4" 215 pounds, is the prototypical WR in today’s NFL. Worth stashing if you have a roster spot.

• Byron Pringle (0.8%) - Despite leading the Chiefs in receiving yards in Week 7, no one is talking about Pringle. His reception totals have remained consistent or improved every single week this season, and Pringle was PFF’s highest-rated Chief against the Titans. Pringle had 121 air yards last week & will be a popular waiver add if he strings together another solid week. He also made this catch:

Also, plz pickup Antonio Gibson’s backup Jarrett Patterson. You know why.

But what about Tom Brady’s Ball?

Here’s the “law” on taking a ball home from a stadium: If a fan catches a ball, an usher will ask for it back (because teams only have 12 offensive balls per game). If the fan refuses, they will likely be ejected - with the football. That’s right, you can keep the ball but must leave the stadium with it.

This is important after a fan was handed Tom Brady’s 600th TD ball (worth over $600,000) but gave it back. Here’s what he got instead:

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Thanks for joining me this morning! If you need any other waiver pickups (or are bored at work), check out the Wolf’s list.

- Jake

The Morning Huddle: a daily newsletter full of fantasy football news, memes, and stats - we spend hours finding & summarizing the best content into a short, 3-minute read.

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