Good morning. Before you read this, go find your friend who drafted Cam Akers. Check on them. Ask if they are ok. Be there for them. 

With Week 1 finally kicking off, you've got a buy/sell list, player profiles, and yesterday's headlines. As always, we read hours of content and summarized it for you in a brief, 3 minute read.

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MARKET

Lamar "hopes" JK Dobbins returns in a couple weeks, meanwhile Kenneth Walker is out with no timetable. You saw Cam Akers last night. We’re not hitting panic on Allen Robinson yet… And Gabe Davis...

ABOUT LAST NIGHT

Three tweets sum it up:

PROFILE

Spotlight: Gabriel Davis

Out of the University of Central Florida, Gabriel Davis was a mixed bag of a prospect. He ended his college career with 23 TDs (2nd in UCF history) and 2447 receiving yards (7th), but scouts were unsure Davis had the burst to excel in the open field. In the 2020 draft, Davis fell to the Bills in the 4th round.

Year 1: Competing with newly acquired Stefon Diggs and slot extraordinaire Cole Beasley, Davis had a productive rookie season (599 yards, 7 TDs and 71.6% snap share). He led the team with 17.1 yards per reception, proving his big-play ability. 

Year 2: The Bills add Emmanuel Sanders to the team and Davis falls down the depth chart. But then the playoffs hit: In the two games he played in the 2021 postseason, Gabe Davis scored five times, nearly equaling his six he scored in the entirety of the 17-game regular season.

Why so high on Davis in Year 3? 

The Bills didn't add any WR depth this offseason:

• Cole Beasley & Emmanuel Sanders = gone (184 targets available)

• Peter King mentioned Davis is "not a distant" #2 option during Bills camp and was told that Davis' last playoff game was "the start of something big"

• That playoff game: Davis torched KC for 8 catches, 201 yards, and 4 TDs. In one game.

• Stefon Diggs told us to draft him.

Sure, the Bills added Jamison Crowder - but he's a 29 yr-old slot WR behind Isaiah McKenzie.

If last night was any indication, the Gabe Davis Year 3 breakout potential is real. In the Bills first four drives, Davis didn't leave the field. But he'll need higher than a 16% target share to pay off his ADP. He'll get it.

BUY & SELL

The case for...

Buying D'Andre Swift: Before his injury in Week 12, Swift was RB5. Overall. An elite pass-catcher with 6+ targets/game and an 18.4% target share, we can expect this trend to continue. Swift said his goal this season is for 1000 yards rushing and 1000 receiving. It might be realistic: Jared Goff was fifth in check-down rate last year. Swift possess top 5 upside for a Detroit team with a borderline elite offensive line and no true #1 WR. 

Selling Najee Harris: Last season's RB4 feels risky. Big Ben Roethlisberger couldn't throw more than 10 yards, so he'd check-down to Harris. Trubisky can throw and has options in Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and George Pickens (& Pat Freiermuth saw 79 targets).

Plus, the Steelers OL is one of the worst in the NFL. Harris also admitted to suffering a Lisfranc sprain during the preseason, which has potential for re-injury. Yes, he's still a strong RB option, but the top 5 upside seems dependent on ungodly volume. If you can sell Harris for a haul, think about it.

QUICK SLANTS

• Despite not being seen at practice, Chris Godwin remains a game-time decision for Sunday night. He'll be limited even if he does suit up.

• Rondale Moore injured his hamstring and will undergo an MRI to determine the severity. With Hopkins also out, Kyler will be rely on Hollywood Brown.

• George Kittle will likely miss Week 1 with a groin injury that was described as "not good."

• Diontae Johnson won't commit to playing in Week 1 after suffering a shoulder injury in the preseason.

• Christian McCaffrey was added to the injury report with a shin injury, despite fully participating in practice. His shin got cut by a cleat during practice.

• Chase Edmonds was a full participant in today's practice after being limited on Wednesday. All signs point to him starting Sunday against the Patriots.

Tweet of the Day

The Adam Levitan narrative itself has become a narrative.

But seriously, Davante Adams might be WR#1 at the end of the year. And how about those Bills?

Thanks for joining us this morning.

Jake, Eddie, Coach Wehler & Matt