🏈 Buying Tua & Aaron Jones

Investigating Amon-Ra, Christian Kirk continues to ball, and a positional review.

September 21, 2022

Good morning. Hopefully yours is going better than Steelers OC Matt Canada's yesterday. His entire offense said he sucks as a play caller:

Tomlin has never fired a coordinator in-season before - but an exception should be made. Just don't replace him with a Matt (Nagy or Patricia) or Adam (Gase).

Today, you've got some insights on Tua, a review of Aaron Jones' big day, and a position by position breakdown. Like every Wednesday morning.

MARKET

Darren Waller is playing a bigger role in the Raiders offense than Kyle Pitts is (and that's not saying much). As Nico pointed out to us, Tyler Higbee is the only TE exceeding expectations.

There aren't 10 WRs I'd rather have than Amon-Ra St. Brown. There's nine. And then there's Darnell Mooney:

QUARTERBACKS

TUA TIME

Tua Tagovailoa was QB1 in PFF rating (85.2) and QB2 for fantasy after posting 40+ points. He leads the NFL in pass yards (749) and tied for first in TDs (7). In an explosive Dolphins offense featuring Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, we believe Tua's QB1 reign of terror continues.

  • Despite the loss, Lamar Jackson carved up the Dolphins and became the first player in NFL history with a 75+ yard passing and 75+ yard rushing TD in the same game. He also had a perfect passer rating against the blitz, a concern before the game.

  • Jalen Hurts is 10th in the league in rushing yards, ahead of CMC, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook. He's also the highest graded passer this season.

Is it time to panic on Russell Wilson? A loaded Denver offense has only 32 points in two weeks and was boo'd at home this weekend. Wilson struggled, with only a career low 59% pass completion and his run game is non-existent (5 rush yards total).

Through two games: Joe Burrow has a 3:4 TD:INT ratio, sacked 13 times (most in the NFL) and lost to Mitch Trubisky and Cooper Rush. This video highlights what's gone wrong:

RUNNING BACKS

Keeping Up With Jones

True to their word, the Packers got Aaron Jones more involved last week. He finsihed with more rushing yards than Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Najee Harris and Austin Ekeler combined (132). Jones leads the league in broken tackles and is currently RB4 overall. If Aaron Rodgers heaping praise is any indication, Jones will be the focal point of their offense going forward.

Tony Pollard was the 2nd-most targeted Cowboy last week (7), which translated into 4 catches & 55 yards. He was also more efficient than Zeke on the ground (4.8 YPC compared to 3.5 YPC) and scored a rushing TD.

Jerry Jones, who must have a personal vandetta against me (I have Pollard rostered everywhere) said he'd like the Cowboys to continue to give Elliot the load and he'd like to see both back's usage go up. Can't anyone tell this guy no?

  • While the Steelers offensive line has taken a lot of criticism to start the season, Najee Harris is struggling with his vision, even when his line does appear to be opening up lanes for him.

  • Jeff Wilson finished with 103 total yards and tied for 2nd in touches in the redzone (4) last week. Positive TD regression incoming. Start.

  • Breece Hall played only 29% of the snaps but scored his first TD and was more efficient than Michael Carter. He led all rookie RB’s in yards per carry in week 2 with 7.1!!

And this:

WIDE RECEIVERS

What Can Brown Do For You

Amon-Ra St Brown is averaging 26.4 PPR points in his last 8 games - more than Cooper Kupp's record-breaking 2021. St Brown now has 8+ catches in 8 straight games, tying Michael Thomas and Antonio Brown's record. He has cemented himself as a clear WR1.

Stefon Diggs has a 157.4 passer rating when targeted this year, highest in the NFL. Diggs is also the highest-graded WR per PFF (90.9) and is finally connecting on the deep balls with Josh Allen. Finishing as WR1 overall is very possible.

  • The Dolphins are supporting two top 5 fantasy WRs in Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. The dynamic duo made history as the only teammates to each have 150+ receiving yards, 10+ receptions and 2+ receiving TDs in the same game.

  • Curtis Samuel has 20 targets through two games (Terry Mclaurin: 12 and Jahan Dotson: 10). They've all been productive but Samuel looks like the WR1. Samuel has 10+ fantasy points in his last 10/12 games when seeing over 40% snap share.

  • Tee Higgins saw 10 targets for 6 catches, 71 yards and a TD. In the last 11 games, Higgins has 90 targets, one more than (ADP of 3 rounds earlier) Ja'Marr Chase.

A.J. Brown has been Jalen Hurts’ first read target on 42.5% of his attempts, the second-highest rate in the league per @FantasyPtsData. Only Cooper Kupp (46%) has been a first-read target more often.

The Jaguars are getting their money's worth with Christian Kirk, who is single handedly saving my fantasy season:

TIGHT END

Kyle Pitts stinks. But don't give up. Yes, Pitts is TE15 in total targets. Yes, HC Arthur Smith shot a stray at fantasy football for his inability to get Pitts the ball. But read these:

Hopefully the Falcons figure it out. @adamlevitan & @evansilva discussed team-by-team takeaways and answer "what to do about Kyle Pitts" in this podcast yesterday.

  • Here are the top 5 leaders in targets for TEs. Kelce, Waller, Schultz and Pitts did not make the list. Just like we all predicted this offseason. I hate fantasy football.

CONTENT

Y'all got any more of that content?

Quality reads/listens for your fantasy fix - all without paywalls:

QUICK SLANTS

  • 49ers signed Marlon Mack to their active roster. He will compete with Jordan Mason for the RB2 job behind Jeff Wilson.

  • Pete Carroll said that the they need to give Geno Smith more opportunities in the passing game and to make sure the ball goes to DK Metcalf down the field. Buy DK?

  • Jerry Jones believes Dalton Schultz's knee injury is not long term but he will miss this week. It's hard to trust Dr. Jerry Jones.

  • Buccaneers signed Cole Beasley to their practice squad and he is expected to be elevated to their active roster. Given virtually all the Bucs WR's are either injured or suspended, Beasley could be utilized right away. Stash in deep PPR leagues.

  • A great article on Jimmy G's Seinfeld-ian journey this offseason, which resulted in him sticking around & a $250K bonus per start.

Thanks for joining us this morning - see you tomorrow!

Jake Eddie, Matt & Coach Wehler.

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