Good morning and good luck Baker Mayfield. Baker filed a court petition for answers from an Austin-based investment firm that lost $12 million of Baker’s money. The problem is, this firm is where Baker’s family works… meaning he’s summoning family members to court to learn where his money went.

Good news if you drafted Tyreek Hill:

In 13 games with Tua at QB, Hill had 94 catches for 1,408 yards and 8 TDs. If we extrapolate those numbers across a full season, he would have had 369.8 PPR fantasy points. That would’ve been good for WR1 (@CamaronsEgo).

Hill’s 3.20 YPRR during the 2022 season was the best mark for WRs with min. 375 routes run since 2007, per @PFF. Per Scott Barrett, if Hill ran as many routes as Justin Jefferson last year, he would have finished with 2,208 yards. Wow.

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RANKINGS

RB James Cook moved to RB26 after again seeing almost every snap with Buffalo’s starters. An RB1 in a high-scoring offense is always valuable, especially if reports are true that the Bills are encouraging Josh Allen to run less.

WR Drake London dropped to WR30. We still love London's upside, but after further consideration of the Falcons offense, it's difficult to put London above other WRs in his tier like Terry McLaurin and Chris Godwin.

TE Sam LaPorta moved up to TE13. After securing the starting job in Detroit, LaPorta should see plenty of targets in a high-powered offense - especially with Jameson Williams suspended for the first 6 games.

RB Chris Evans replaces teammate Chase Brown at RB63 after reports favor Evans winning the backup job - largely due to his pass-catching ability.

RB Rico Dowdle replaces teammate Malik Davis at RB70 after reports from Dallas suggest Dowdle is the front-runner for the backup job. Dowdle is also competing with impressive rookie Deuce Vaughn.

Our free ranking list and printable cheat sheet are updated daily, last update in the early hours of August 21, 2023.

STORY

Do Contract Years Matter?

Should you target players in their contract year? After all, Josh Jacobs was a free-agent-to-be in 2022 before the best season of his career. Saquon Barkley played 16 games for the first time since his rookie year; it was his contract season, too.

Back in 2012, Jonathan Bales of 4for4 did a massive study on 2012 Contract Year Players and the Myth of Increased Production to determine that there was no correlation between contract-year and increased production. This offseason, Brandon Niles re-ran the study in his excellent Do Players Perform Better in Fantasy Football in a Contract Year for 4for4. Has anything changed under the new CBA, with rookies paid less? Yes, it has.

Niles looked at the last eight years of players in a contract year to determine whether or not there was a significant increase in fantasy points per game (FPPG) from the previous season. He only found one position significant enough to base a draft choice on - at an almost 12% increase.

RBs and WRs in Contract Years

Running back production is highly correlated to workload. Is a team more likely to give an RB a heavy dose of volume in their contract year, or do they scale back while looking for other options? An RB contract-year has minimal correlation to production, so next time we say “Cam Akers is in a contract year”, ignore us.

But what about WRs? This matters for WRs - the position group saw an 11.9% overall increase, almost 4x the difference for RBs.

“Corey Davis in 2020 is an example of a contract-year boon. He was labeled a bust before an 87.5% increase in FPPG in 2020 and then signed a fat new contract in New York. Likewise, Mike Williams showed up last year with a 51.2% increase in FPPG, prompting the Chargers to re-sign him to a long-term deal.”

The key takeaway: WRs with a safe position on the depth chart and without a significant change to the offense (i.e. traded star QB) are likely to see an overall increase in production - significant enough to make contract status a factor in your drafting decision.

Notable contract year WRs in 2023:

• Tee Higgins (25 years old - rookie contract)

• Gabe Davis (24 - rookie contract)

• Darnell Mooney (26 - rookie contract)

• Michael Pittman (26 - rookie contract)

• Marquise Brown (26 - rookie contract)

• Calvin Ridley (29 - rookie contract)*

• Mike Evans (30 - 14th contract)

*Ridley’s 5th year option was picked up by the Falcons in 2022 but rolled over to 2023 after he was suspended before playing a single game. He’s still technically on his rookie deal and will likely need to prove himiself before extension talks begin.

But Mike Evans and the TB Buccaneers are intending to get a new deal done before the end of training camp, so don’t count on Evans as “contract-year WR”, per Pewter Report.

MARKETS

Crowded RB Rooms

📈 RB Dameon Pierce was last preseason’s hero. Now he enters what is typically an RB’s breakout year. In the Texans preseason game, Pierce played every snap of the first two drives, including snaps on third down. Backup Devin Singletary only entered the game on the Texans third drive once Pierce called it a night. Bell. Cow.

📈 RB James Cook ADP continues to rise. Cook dominated first team snaps in the Bills latest preseason game, seeing a 86% snap share and 100% of short-yardage snaps, per Dwain McFarland of FantasyLife. Dwain flagged that Damien Harris may challenge for carries once he returns from injury, which could be as early as this week, per Jeff Mueller.

📉 Despite glowing reports, Dolphins rookie RB De'Von Achane didn't see his first offensive snap until the middle of the 2nd quarter over the weekend.

Raheem Mostert, Salvon Ahmed, and Myles Gaskin all entered preseason games before Achane. Jeff Wilson is also presumably ahead of Achane. Achane suffered a shoulder injury that could take 2-3 weeks to recover from. Hype is real, but don’t overreact.

📈 Marquise Brown is a borderline must-draft WR. Brown was WR10 in expected fantasy points per game with Colt McCoy last season. WR10!! His current ADP? WR32. With Hopkins traded and McCoy back in the saddle, Brown is the undisputed #1 option for a team throwing from behind most games. And if Kyler comes back, even better.

Last year, Kyler Murray led all QBs last season in fantasy points per game while trailing (13.9 FPG), per Ryan Heath (using Fantasy Points Data); Brown will be the beneficiary of those points. Brown was WR5 with Murray behind the helm…

📉Jets RB Zonovan Knight put up RB2 numbers when the Jets were thin at RB. Knight was expected to see early season volume with Breece Hall's health in question, but the Jets signed Dalvin Cook. Knight is now battling for a roster spot. With rookie RB Israel Abanikanda likely to make the roster, all signs point to Knight being the odd one out. Teams do not roster five RBs. Avoid.

📈Jake Ferguson is locked in as TE1 in Dallas. He played 100% of starter snaps against the Jaguars and rested with the starters this past weekend. The departure of Dalton Schultz leaves 6 targets per game. With Dak Prescott calling Ferguson close to being a big time playmaker, expect the TE to have a valuable role in the Cowboys high-scoring offense.

Depth Charts

Rookie: Zach Charbonnet

After a strong preseason, rookie RB Zach Charbonnet is carving out his role in Seattle's backfield. Expect the second rounder to start behind Ken Walker, but Charbonnet’s ability in the passing game and Madden-like truck stick should earn him some passing down and goal line work.

Like me, Charbonnet doesn't have any elite traits. The difference is Charbonnet is the complete package - he does everything well:

• The best vision out of all RBs in this year's class, per PFF

• The 5th highest PFF receiving grade and tied for 1st in receptions per game (3.7) among his RB draft class, per Andrew Erickson

• Led the 2023 RB class in the percentage of runs that were deemed positive outcomes (57.4%) and in Expected Points Added per play at 0.238, per @FootballStock

Charbonnet is the ideal "FLEX with benefits" -- a phrase coined by the Fantasy Footballers' Mike Wright -- meaning the Seattle RB has standalone value in your FLEX spot, but also RB1 upside if anything were to happen to Walker. This upside, combined with the potential of Seattle's offense (7th in yards/play and 9th in points/game last season), make Charbonnet a strong bet in the middle rounds of your fantasy draft.

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read Jake Tribbey’s Consistency Series on FantasyPoints.com. He highlights why Austin Ekeler should be the RB1.

“It’s surprising that Ekeler (ADP: 7.3) isn’t in the RB1 conversation this season, with ADP greatly preferring Christian McCaffrey (ADP: 3.5).

Remember, Ekeler has a higher rate of top-10 weekly finishes (58%) than any other RB over the last two seasons. He scored over 30.0 fantasy points four times last season – twice as often as McCaffrey. And Ekeler’s floor was better; he recorded double-digit fantasy points in 94% of his games last year, while McCaffrey only hit that mark in 82% of his games with San Francisco.

And Austin Ekeler is not competing with Elijah Mitchell for touches.”

📖 Read Jake Ciely’s Six Bold Predictions for Fantasy Football in 2023, which includes Darren Waller dethroning Travis Kelce 👀, among other spicy takes available on The Athletic.

“This would take Kelce having a “down” year and Waller bouncing back to his 2020 season. Kelce’s three low marks would still finish first in some seasons, but not in 2020, as Waller had 14.2 FPPG.”

“Waller blew away the field with a 27.7% share of his team’s targets (Kelce was second at TE with 23.7%) - Waller could repeat this with the Giants.'“ At receiver, the Raiders had nothing (Nelson Agholor and Hunter Renfrow). The Giants have nothing (No. 2 and 3 options fighting for spots), which means Waller can monopolize Daniel Jones’ targets… if healthy.

📖 Read Tyler Dunne on how Dan Campbell turned the Detroit Lions into NFC contenders by vanquishing the bad juju. The non-paywall aspect touches on why things were so bad under former Lions HC Matt Patricia. Snippet:

“Those who spoke up were ejected from the building. Prime example: Quandre Diggs, a team captain, a rising star. Thirteen months into a three-year, $18.6 million pact, the Lions safety was deemed an insubordinate and shipped to the Seattle Seahawks for pocket change.” GoLongTD.com

🎙️Listen to Adam Levitan and Evan Silva discuss their least favorite picks in each round of fantasy drafts in the EstablishtheRun podcast. They touch on a surprising reason why you want to avoid Jonathan Taylor (hint: nothing to do with contract drama):

"With lack of involvement in the passing game, Taylor is somewhat reliant on touchdowns. At the goal line, Shane Steichan is going to run the 'tush push' with Anthony Richardson a lot. On top of that, we have team level concerns with their overall scoring environment." Listen on Apple and Spotify

📺️ Watch Dan Orlovsky explain why he’s “seen enough” and thinks that Trey Lance can’t play in Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers offense.

Tweet of the Day

4th and 36 inches. And I thought I was optimistic about size. Should a team be charged a timeout for making them measure this?

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