🏈 Chasing after Ja'Marr

Good morning. Happy (day after) Easter, Happy (two days after) Passover, and Happy Monday to all who celebrate.

Before we get into the rookies, Aaron Rodgers is struggling without Davante: 

Today, our focus is on the WR and TE prospects. Expert takes, stats and comps. The most important factor this year will be landing spot, with the Chiefs and Packers offering a huge opportunity for a young WR. Or maybe just draft the hyped prospect who drops passes.

The 2022 Class of Pass Catchers

To keep it simple, experts split this class into three categories: 

1) Studs: players who should ball out regardless of landing spot.

2) Lottery tickets: less-hyped but high potential pass-catchers who could shine in the right situation.

3) Sleepers: you know what these are. This year's Terry McLaurin. 

Teams interested (and desperate) for WR help include the Washington Commanders (Terry McLaurin), Atlanta Falcons (Kyle Pitts and DFS Ridley), Tennesse Titans (tied for most pre-draft WR visits), Green Bay Packers (that trade), and the Jets, Eagles, Cardinals, Cowboys and Bears.

The 2022 rookie receiver class is tough to project, with a deep set of prospects capable of being fantasy studs (but with a non-zero chance of busting). Additionally, there are sleepers from the middle rounds who could emerge as key contributors this season.

Despite battling target competition at Ohio State, Wilson showed he can play outside or in the slot. His versatility, footwork, and technique make him a threat at all levels. Wilson's drawn some lofty comparisons, including Davante Adams, Ja'Marr Chase and Stefon Diggs. And Pierre Garcon, every prospect's dream.

London's college career started slowly as he battled Michael Pittman and The Sun God (Amon-Ra St. Brown) for targets at USC. Still, London dominated his junior season, accounting for 42% of USC’s receiving yardage and averaging 11 catches for 135.5 and 0.9 TDs per game. Comps: Hakeem Butler or if Mike Evans was also nice with it after the catch (either/or, not in between). Did we mention he's huge?

Previously most experts’ top overall receiver, Burks saw his draft stock plummet after a poor showing at his pro-day and combine (4.55/40). We're buying the dip. Burks' hit a top speed of 22.6 MPH last season - no NFL player reached a top speed higher than in 2021 and only Raheem Mostert did in 2020. And guess what A.J. Brown ran at the combine? 4.55 and 4.57. Plus there's the intangibles:

After a 2021 season where he posted 79 catches for 1,572 yards and 15 touchdowns, a healthy Williams may have been a top-10 pick in this draft class. Williams' speed keeps him in the mid-first round conversation, despite the chance he's less than 100% until late in 2022. Comp: Scott Barrett says Williams is Will Fuller on steroids (which is HIGH praise, Fuller was filthy for those 8 games in 2020).

Per Scott Barrett, from 2019-2020, Olave ranked: 2nd in YPT (11.8), 3rd in YPRR (3.36), 2nd in TDs per target (0.14) and 1st in first downs per target (0.58) (Among all 130+ qualifying Power 5 WRs, minus WRs already drafted in Round 1).

This tier of prospects could put up big numbers in the right landing spot:

• Jahan Dotson – Dotson is a small NFL WR and didn’t have a great combine. Still, scouts have him as a possible late first-rounder and the former team captain projects as an outside pass catcher with legit 4.4 speed. He has good hands and competitiveness. Think: Sterling Shepard. Arizona is interested.

• Christian Watson – A physical freak, Watson is one of the best pre-draft testers at the WR position ever (4.36, 136-inch broad jump, 38.5 inch vertical). And he’s huge (6’4” 208). An expected 2nd rounder who could slip into the first. Think: a flexible Chase Claypool. Watson's dad was drafted by the Packers, who need a WR.

• George Pickens – Considered one of the best prospects in the country before tearing his ACL in his junior year, Pickens was dominant as a true freshman at Georgia. His drop rate (2.1%) is the lowest in the class. No expert knows what to make of Pickens, but he’ll likely be drafted after round one. Think: JuJu Smith-Schuster without TikTok. Washington is a rumored destination.

• Skyy Moore – The 5’10” 195 WR is a beast at breaking tackles and adds significant yards after the catch. Moore had the highest graded season by a WMU WR since Corey Davis in 2016. Not a sexy pick, Moore could quickly develop into a QB favorite. KC at 50th overall seems a popular destination. Mahomes can make anyone fantasy viable.

This tier is difficult. Someone could shock us all, but most are likely just underhyped John Ross clones (irrelevant). There are also a few value-mart Deebo Samuels listed below.

John Metchie – Metchie tore his ACL in December but still comes from an impressive crop of Alabama receivers. A solid pro ready player who's not afraid to put ‘em on skates.

Wan’Dale Robinson – Robinson is an undersized receiver (5’8” 178) which typically doesn't translate to fantasy production. Nevertheless, Robinson was a very productive gadget-type at Kentucky. 

Calvin Austin – Speaking of undersized guys, Austin is another 5’8” prospect and only measured at 170 pounds. He was a five year player at Memphis who will be 23 before the season begins. Many experts question his ceiling in terms of fantasy production.

Alec Pierce –Pierce profiles a potentially one-dimensional outside deep threat. He's 6’3” 211 and had an impressive combine showing with a 4.41 and over 40 inch vertical. Martavis-Bryant lite. 

David Bell – Bell may belong in the previous tier but many have doubts after a lackluster combine. Some have him compared to Keenan Allen, so Bell could be a high-floor type late in fantasy drafts. And the measurable comps are there with Jarvis Landry and Anquan Boldin.

Jalen Tolbert – At 6’1” 194, he has the profile to be an outside deep threat and the ability to mix into the slot. Here's all you need to know about Tolbert.

Justyn Ross – Ross is a 6’4” receiver who had a rollercoaster of a career at Clemson. He had a successful season as a freshman, then fell off as a sophomore and struggled with injuries. If he falls in the draft, his fantasy ceiling may be pretty low (but he would be the perfect fit to reunite with Legolas in Jacksonville).

A few teams have obvious holes at TE: Colts, Chargers, Bengals and Broncos (who pick 63 and 64 in the draft, respectively). Here are the TEs likely filling those slots:

• Greg Dulcich – A former no star WR that walked on at UCLA, Dulcich had a similar role as C.J. Uzomah in Cincinnati. While at UCLA, Dulcich gained 40 pounds of muscle (and hair) and became one of the most exciting tight ends in college football.

• Trey McBride – McBride is a more prominent pass-catcher than Dulcich, with 90 receptions for over 1,100 yards last season. If McBride is still on the board, Denver could figure to give Russell Wilson another weapon after trading Noah Fant to acquire Wilson.

Other TEs to keep an eye on include Isaiah Likely, Jelani Woods, and Brock Bowers (Bowers (class of 2024) was one of only two Power 5 TEs who avg'd +2.00 Rec Yards per Team Pass Attempt in 2021, the other being Greg Dulcich).

Must-Read WR Content

NBC Sports Edge’s 2022 Pre-Draft Rookie Wide-Receiver Ranks and Profiles, Part 1, 2, and 3 by Pat Kerrane, who is back again this week with his in-depth analysis of rookie WRs (no paywall).

Marvin Elequin shared a thread on his 2022 Rookie Wide Receivers model, which factors in production, efficiency, and projected draft capital (and was used in the graphic above).

As always, highly recommend the rookie profiles at Establish The Run by Anthony Amico - the Treylon Burks article is a must.

Today is a great day to be great - and don't forget, we have a podcast on Apple and Spotify!

- Jake, Eddie, Coach Wehler & Matt

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