Good morning. Picture this: You are a bored bank teller working in a poorly ventilated office in a strip mall. Your teenage kids don’t respect you. You look up from your desk to see Chiefs superfan “ChiefAholic” walk in. Finally, something interesting.

ChiefAholic then pulls out a rifle and demands you hand over $70,000 in cash.

On Wednesday, a federal grand jury indicted ChiefAholic for robbing several banks and laundering the stolen money through casinos. He had been on the run for three months before being arrested in California and is alleged to have stole over $695,000.

Speaking as a Bengals fan, it’s only right that Mahomes is suspended for the season after this.

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RANKINGS

Alvina Kamara (RB27 to RB25) inches up with the short suspension. Would rather have Kamara’s upside than Rachaad White or David Montgomery at cost. First three games will fly by…

Cardinals rookie WR Michael Wilson added as WR74 after rave reviews during camp and a strong preseason showing with Arizona's starters. He is competing with just Zach Pascal to start on the outside…

Darren Waller (TE7 to TE5) is the best value TE in drafts this season. Waller is the rare TE (Kelce, Andrews, Pitts) likely to lead his team in targets. Just counting on his health…

Pierre Strong was removed after reports suggest he could be behind Ty Montgomery on the depth chart…

Pete Carroll (QB34) enters our rankings after his highlight tape from Seahawks camp leaked:

STORY

Upside Wins Championships

Do you merely want to win your league? Or do you want to crush your opponents, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women?

Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points wrote Upside Wins Championships, which is a must-read.

In his article, Scott introduces a draft-‘ethos’ that leagues are won not by balanced teams drafting ADP-beaters, but by teams who correctly identified a few key league-winners and rode those players all the way to a title. And by “a few," he means very few — there may only be 6-12 players who actually matter for fantasy in any given season.

Think Josh Jacobs or Travis Kelce last season.

Our goal when drafting should be trying to identify players with league-winning upside.

One key takeaway for your drafts this season:

“Every year there’s a number of players who, despite resoundingly beating their ADP, posted below average win rates for their fantasy teams. The example used last year was James White, who despite beating his ADP and returning starter-worthy production (finishing 19th at an ADP of RB25), returned a win-rate of just 7.7%, well below the league-average rate (10.0%).

Why?

Because low-end RB2 production is basically worthless. By wins-above-replacement (WAR), the RB1 in 2019 was 2.0 times as valuable as the RB2, which was 2.2 times as valuable as the RB10, which was 6.5 times as valuable as James White’s 0.11.

Over the past five seasons, the difference between starting the RB20 and the RB35 — a player you can probably find on waivers — has been nothing compared to the difference between starting the RB7 and the RB20 each week (2.8 FPG vs. 5.3 FPG).”

So when you’re making trades, always ensure you get the best player available.

Last year, Scott won Research Article of the Year from the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for his follow-up (Anatomy of a League Winner: 2022 Edition).

You can find his 2023 Edition at Fantasy Points, here. One snippet:

“Rookie Anthony Richardson (ADP: QB11) was the highest-ranked QB in our Rookie Draft Guide (from an NFL perspective)… His HC and offensive play-caller Shane Steichen helped Jalen Hurts average 23.5 fantasy points per start over the past two seasons (3rd-most), and Justin Herbert to set rookie records in passing touchdowns (31) and passing YPG (289.1).”

If you aren’t already, you should immediately visit FantasyPoints.com and follow Scott (@ScottBarretDFB) on Twitter.

MARKETS

Injury Bug Bites

📉Titans WR Treylon Burks suffered an LCL sprain during practice on Wednesday. Burks avoided a season ending injury but faces an average recovery time of 2-4 weeks, with his performance likely to suffer for the first six weeks post injury, per @SportMDAnalysis. First Hopkins signing, now this. Difficult to love Burks as a post-hype sleeper.

📈Geno Smith was 2022’s QB6. This offseason, the Seahawks drafted stud rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round and brought back all their weapons. Geno is now drafted as QB14. Despite lacking the rushing upside of the elite QBs - which is priced in at his ADP - Geno remains a value. Don’t forget that Geno led the entire league in Completion Percentage Over Expectation in 2022.

📉 Lions WRs. If you need another reason to not draft Jameson Williams (suspended for the first 6 games), he left practice with a hamstring injury which could keep him off the field until October, per @kmeinke. And since he’s suspended, Williams can’t receive treatment with the team once the season starts.

At the same practice, Amon-Ra St. Brown sat on the sideline with what looked like a minor ankle injury - this is not serious but worth monitoring.

📈Jaylen Warren is the next Austin Ekeler? Steelers beat writer Nick Farabaugh said Warren has “Austin-Ekeler like qualities”: crisp route running and good hands. Warren had the 3rd highest score in receiver tracking metrics last season behind only CMC and Ekeler.

Mark Kaboly of The Athletic wrote that the Steelers would love to give Warren 25% of the rushing share by end of season as well, making him an elite handcuff with stand-alone value. He’s a valuable dynasty stash.

📉On Episode 788 of the Late Round Podcast, JJ Zachariason and Evan Silva touch on players to avoid this season. “Since 2011, we’ve never seen a single true breakout season from a RB from a team with a rookie QB… and that’s exactly what we’re looking at with Miles Sanders with Bryce Young starting.” Prefer James Conner or Rachaad White two rounds after Sanders.

📈Tyler Higbee may be boring, but he’s the second receiving option on the Rams and is projected to have a snap share of over 90%. Matt Stafford is also back: Higbee saw at least 8 targets in 6 of the 10 games Stafford played. Currently drafted as TE13, Higbee has a higher floor than most TEs.

Depth Charts

Rookie: Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta could lead all rookie TEs in targets. The 34th overall pick is making plays in training camp and built strong chemistry with Jared Goff. LaPorta earned the starting TE job in Detroit and faces minimal competition. With a thin WR corps, LaPorta should be a top target in the Detroit passing game.

LaPorta comes from Tight End University (some call it the University of Iowa), which is known for producing TEs like George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson) with hype surrounding LaPorta’s athleticism and consistent productivity:

• 4.59 40-yard dash (3rd among TEs at this year’s Combine)

• His 299 YAC in 2022 were 2nd most in Iowa history (behind only T.J. Hockenson)

• Led all college TEs with 20 missed tackles forced in 2022

This preseason, LaPorta took 100% of the Lion's starting offense TE snaps in 11 personnel, per @DavisMattek. With St. Brown drawing the attention of secondaries and minimal competition in an offense that schemes TE touchdowns, LaPorta has an opportunity to shine from day 1.

QUICK SLANTS

Future Stud WRs

📖 Read @ZWKfootball’s thread after analyzing five years of data from ESPN’s WR/TE scores (which are based on player tracking) to see what best predicts future performance for WRs/TEs:

Open Score is more stable than the other components from year to year. So if you're trying to predict this year's Overall Score based on last year's components (for the 219 WR-consecutive-seasons), it is:

• 65% Open Score

• 19% Catch Score

• 16% YAC Score

Last season, Diontae Johnson ranked first in the entire NFL in open rate, while AJ Brown was the highest overall ranked WR (one spot ahead of Justin Jefferson). Full rankings of the best 2022 WRs at FiveThirtyEight.com.

📖 Read @AdamHarstad’s 2022 Rookie WR Production model, which is strongly predictive of career outcomes.

Chris Olave ranks 6th of 173 ranked WRs, tying Mike Evans for the best rookie season by any WR other than Beckham, Chase, Jefferson, or A.J. Brown.

Olave ranked 8th at getting open and 7th overall as a rookie, ahead of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Hardstad ranks Olave as a Top 5 dynasty WR who has a shot at one day earning the “consensus best WR in the NFL” title."

📖 Read Tristan Cockroft and Matt Bowen of ESPN’s 2022 Recap, with stories, learnings and takeaways for fantasy football success in 2023. In the article, they explain how Najee Harris joined Matt Forte as the only rookie running backs to score 300-plus as a rookie, then play every game as a sophomore while seeing their total drop by 75-plus points.

🎙️Listen to Evan Silva (@evansilva) discuss his Top-150 rankings changes with @adamlevitan on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

📺️ Watch Field Yates of ESPN discuss his RB tiers, with an explanation for why Nick Chubb is Tier 3, followed closely by James Conner in Tier 4 👀 

Creator of the Day

Jake Tribbey

In this new series, we highlight must-follows in the fantasy football industry.

You might recognize Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) from prior newsletters - we’re big fans. Jake published his first work (32 team previews for Fanvest) in 2020 and has since become one of our favorite analysts, especially after he convinced everyone to go against consensus and draft CMC over Jonathan Taylor last season.

Jake published Why WR/CB Matchups Don’t Matter for Fantasy Football, the first article to explain why WR/CB matchups were overrated by the fantasy football community. This gave managers insight into coverage schemes and a reminder that WRs are playing against more than the CB lined up across them; they are facing an entire coverage unit.

Key: attack the weakest overall pass defenses and avoiding the strongest.

On the Mic

In addition to the 178 articles he’s published, Jake recently launched a podcast with Fantasy Points, where’s he’s consistently publishing world-class DFS content.

Listen to Jake’s first episode with Scott Barrett on the best handcuffs, Kadarius Toney vs Sky Moore, and more:

• Listen on Spotify

• Listen on Apple Podcasts

And Jake’s convinced us to draft Chris Olave even earlier:

Tweet of the Day

I’ll never understand why we are the way we are.

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