Good morning. If you expected this newsletter to be the most entertaining thing you’d see today, you forgot Johnny Manziel was an NFL quarterback.

Last night, a behind scenes documentary on Manziel’s career aired on Netflix. Among other things, Manziel admits he never watched any game tape. Not a second. And then there’s this:

But the full documentary is more than crazy stories. It gives a window into the mental health struggles of the man they called Johnny Football.

You can watch the trailer here.

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STORY

What’s Happening in the Colts Backfield

Jonathan Taylor isn’t participating at Colts training camp due to an ankle injury. This ankle injury can only be fixed with a long term, guaranteed contract. Or a trade.

Back in April, everything was fine. Taylor even said the following:

"I'm under contract here for four years. I put the pen to the paper, so that's where I'm at right now. I have an obligation to them, and an obligation to me, but things will happen naturally." Shortly after that quote, Taylor hired a new agent…

So besides the new agent, how did we get here?

First: Taylor is one of the NFL's most underpaid players. Taylor has one year remaining on his four-year, $7.82 million contract that pays him an average annual salary of $1.98 million annually. His market value is a four-year deal with an average annual salary of just over $13 million, according to Spotrac.

Last season: Taylor suffered an ankle injury in the fourth quarter against the Titans in October. Taylor missed the next two games. According to ESPN’s Stephen Holder, the franchise urged Taylor to play through the injury, which he did.

The next two months led to Taylor returning to the lineup only to re-injure his ankle twice.

This offseason: Taylor's anger was fueled by a request for him to report early for a medical assessment. Taylor saw the request as another effort to pressure him to return to the field, despite his stance that he needed time to recover.

It also hurt that the Colts considered placing him on the non-football injury list, which would have resulted in his salary not being paid for the season, per Holder’s article on ESPN.

In response to the team saying it does not plan to sign him to an extension until after this season, Taylor’s trade request was made public.

Meanwhile, the team continues to insist that Taylor’s absence from training camp is medical-related. “If you guys don’t see him out here, it’s part of his rehab,” per Colts HC Shane Steichen. NFL insider Ian Rapoport reported that Taylor will “be away from the team for a little bit” while healing. Rapoport also said that Taylor’s future in Indy is still up in the air.

Kareem Hunt to the rescue?

Running back was expected to be a position of strength for the Colts, but it is looking rough.

Backup Zack Moss is expected to miss six weeks with a broken arm. The Colts signed veteran running back Kenyan Drake late last week, but Drake is practicing behind fifth-round pick Evan Hull.

Hope on the way? Yesterday, ESPN’s Diana Russini reported the Saints were expected to sign RB Kareem Hunt. The only hurdle left to clear was a physical before the signing was announced. Or so they thought.

Just two hours later, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Hunt was on his way to meet with the Colts. Hunt was called by Indy before he stepped foot on the Saints’ field and was offered more money, per ESPN’s Dianna Russini.

Hunt is a 28-year-old former rushing champ coming off his least efficient season, but with the possibility of landing in the best situation available. If the signing is confirmed and Taylor remains sidelined, Hunt becomes an incredible value for anyone who stole him late in drafts. It also hurts Taylor’s potential this season, as Hunt will likely siphon snaps as he did to Nick Chubb in Cleveland.

As for why the Colts don’t want to pay Taylor, maybe they saw this chart?

MARKETS

Kellen Moore Unleashes Mike Williams?

📈 We’re drafting Mike Williams. New OC Kellen Moore has the Chargers experimenting with lining up Williams across field to get him more targets, including in the slot. Per @TrueMediaSports, over 2021-22, Williams played just 13.4% of his snaps in the slot, the third-lowest percentage among receivers with at least 100 receptions. Williams produced 16/261/1 on just 25 slot targets over two years. With Williams potentially in the slot role in the Chargers offense, he might be a massive steal at ADP.

👀 We’re fans of Calvin Ridley, but tapering expectations. The offseason hype is there, but Ridley hasn’t seen an NFL field since 2021. In Ridley’s breakout season, Julio Jones missed half the year and Ridley’s competition for targets was Hayden Hurst and Russell Gage. He’s now on a Jaguars team where Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Zay Jones and Marvin Jones all saw over 80 targets last year.

Be sure you want to spend a 3rd-4th round pick on a player who’s been out of football almost two full years and now joins a new team with plenty of playmakers.

📈 We’re reaching for Chris Olave. Coming off a historically good rookie season, Olave’s situation is even better in 2023. Olave will be catching passes from Derek Carr, who has been top 5 in deep ball rate and deep completions the past two seasons: complimenting Olave’s big play ability perfectly.

Olave’s 41.9% air yard share was second in the NFL last season - now he gets a QB in Carr who averaged 6.5 more pass attempts per game than Andy Dalton. Olave ranked 10th in YPRR among all WRs as a rookie, joining an elite group of rookie wide receivers:

📉 We’re passing on Cole Kmet. Kmet led the Bears in target share last year (17.5%) but Bears receivers also ranked dead last in catchable targets (15.5). Compare this to a TE with similar ADP, Evan Engram, who had a lower target share (16.3%) but was on a Jacksonville team with the 7th highest catchable targets (27.4). With stud WR DJ Moore added to the mix and the Bears unlikely to change their run-heavy scheme, Kmet’s upside just isn’t there.

😟 I’m a worried Bengals fan. There's still no clear timetable for Joe Burrow's return for his calf injury. When Ja'Marr Chase was asked whether he thinks Burrow will be ready for week one, Chase responded: “I told him I don't want him there... as long as you're there week 5 and on, we're good."

Remember, Burrow missed part of training camp last off-season and had a rocky start: in his first two games, he had 3:4 TD:INT ratio with 3 fumbles and was sacked 13 times.

Depth Charts

Rookie of the Day: Dalton Kincaid

The first TE off the board in this year's draft, the Bills traded up to grab Dalton Kincaid. In win-now mode, the Bills expect Kincaid to make a big impact this season. And so do fantasy managers.

Unfortunately for Kincaid, history isn't on his side. Out of the 211 TEs drafted since 2009, none have finished among the top 5 in points per game during their rookie seasons, and only 3 have even finished top 10 -- Kyle Pitts in 2021, Evan Engram in 2017, and Jordan Reed in 2013.

But the former Utah standout will look to change that. Known for his crafty route-running, Kincaid has been targeted consistently by Josh Allen throughout camp.

Reports suggest Kincaid is going to be used as a big slot receiver (think: Travis Kelce) rather than a true in-line TE. And that's where GM Brandon Beane thinks Kincaid is at his best. In college, Kincaid ran 58% of his routes from the slot, averaging an astounding 2.83 yards per route run (for context: Justin Jefferson averaged less (2.62) YPRR last year).

So you’re sold on Kincaid, right? It gets better. Bills OC Ken Dorsey utilized 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs) more often last year than the Bills ever had in Josh Allen's career, and Kincaid’s biggest competition for slot snaps is Khalil Shakir (who is good, but still).

If he gets the opportunity, drafting Kincaid (currently TE12) could be the pick that wins you your league.

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read Scott Barrett’s 2023 Draft Guide. Snippet on Scott’s “perfect fantasy pick” this season: 

“Trevor Lawrence (Jax, 65 ADP): With Calvin Ridley added and Evan Engram back, I don’t see how he fails after his 2022 showing. With 50 points a season using his legs so far, and his passing numbers set to take off in year two of Doug Pederson’s Jacksonville Jaguars tenure, Lawrence really is the perfect fantasy pick because he runs (but not too much), and he’s very capable of hanging with his more expensive contemporaries.”

📖 Read Late Round QBs to Target by Christopher Allen of FantasyLife. With four Seattle skill position players selected in the top 100 picks at their current ADPs, Geno Smith at QB15 is a no-brainer:

“Seattle added the consensus WR1 and a pass-catching RB with early-round capital, both of which point to Smith leading the way through the air. And with his tendency to scramble, he can slide into the top-10 fantasy QB discussion again this year.”

📖 For PFF subscribers, read Nathan Jahnke’s Perfect 2023 Draft Strategy. “Don’t be afraid of an early quarterback pick: The decline or retirement of several aging quarterbacks makes the great quarterbacks of today even more valuable.”

🎙️Listen to Episode 597 of the Establish the Run podcast where Adam Levitan and Evan Silva discuss changes in Evan Silva's Top-150 Rankings. Tank Bigsby moves all the way to 103 overall.

Per Silva: "The scouts that I know love Tank Bigsby. This dude is an absolute baller. I want to start drafting him aggressively."

🎙️Listen to Episode 786 of JJ Zachariason's Late Round Podcast. JJ and Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis are both high on Bucs RB Rachaad White, with Hribar going as far to say he’d prefer White over Najee Harris.

📺️ Watch Washington Commanders OC Eric Bieniemy explain that he’s not concerned if players think he’s too demanding: "I'm going to be their biggest and harshest critic, but also understand, I'm going to be their number one fan because I support them at all times."

This comes after Ron Rivera said some players early on were “a little concerned” about pace of practices under Eric Bieniemy. God help Commanders fans.

That's a wrap for today. Let us know what you thought of today’s edition below. And follow us on Twitter to see everything that didn’t make it in the newsletter @MorningHuddleUp.

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In August, Dalvin Cooked. Thanks for joining us this morning.

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