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π Darth Disappointment
Miami v Cincy for TNF - Deep Dives ft. Samaje Perine and Justice Hill. & CMC injury?
Good morning. Another day, another opportunity for my CEH shares to get discounted. ESPN's Adam Teicher believes the Chiefs backfield "is going to be more of a committee thing" going forward, because the Chiefs "still don't seem comfortable using Clyde Edwards-Helaire in most third-down situations".
Come on Adam, we're trying to sell high!!
The good news is we get to watch Bengals v Dolphins tonight, with the Bengals in their beautiful all-white uniforms. The award for most random picture of the day goes to Derek Carr holding a lightsaber - Ladies and gentlemen, Darth Disappointment:
Today's edition covers DEEP dives, the Thursday night matchups, and some quick injury reports. Let's gooooo
DEEP DIVES
The idea is you pick up a player the week before everyone wants to grab them off the waiver wire. This column wins leagues like no other. Last week's best pick was Mack Hollins. This week's players, available in almost every league, worth grabbing:
Samaje Perine (5.6%) - Joe Mixon is dealing with an ongoing ankle issue, and despite Bengals HC Zac Taylor saying Mixon "will be good to go", they had a short week. Perine is worth a stash if Mixon has setbacks. Perine stepped in for 47 rushing yards on 9 carries after Mixon exited on Sunday. Ankle injuries linger.
Craig Reynolds (3.8%) - D'Andre Swift is going to miss some time. Everyone expects Jamaal Williams to take the majority of the RB work for the Lions, and he will, but this offense was splitting RB carries before Swift's injury. Expect Reynolds to have some role while Swift is out. And it could be a big one. You never know.
Kenny Pickett (4.1%) - It's a matter of when, not if, Pickett starts. The first QB drafted in 2022 will take over as the starter in Pittsburgh, as the Steelers offense is struggling. Pickett is strong where Trubisky struggles (throwing from the pocket). He's a stash in 2-QB leagues and potentially in deeper 16+ team leagues, if you need a QB.
Justice Hill is coming off an impressive 10 YPC performance. Ravens HC called Hill "kinda the bell cow" and saying Hill "really stepped up". Available everywhere, the still 24-yr old RB has been the most productive Ravens RB this year.
Also, why is no one talking about Trestan Ebner? After David Montgomery left the game, Ebner stepped in the RB2 role and tallied 8 touches. The Bears run the ball on over 65% of their plays through 3 weeks. If Montgomery (who is still considered day-to-day) misses time, Ebner will have a role - and heβs available in your league. Here's a video of Ebner's runs.
THURSDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
CBS Sports
This Thursday's matchup is much better than last week's dud... plus white Bengal helmets. A quick preview of every fantasy-relevant player in the Bengals & Dolphins game:
Passing:
Tua Tagovailoa - Tua's availability is up in the air on Thursday. Mike McDaniel told reporters that pain tolerance, ankle and back stability will determine if the young QB plays. Tua plans to plan in the game Thursday night, but he is officially listed as questionable. I'd only start him if you're desperate, but monitor this closely.
Joe Burrow - The QB5 in Week 3, Burrow could have similar production Thursday. Miami has struggled as a pass defense this season, with the tenth highest passing touchdown rate and yards per attempt this season. Miami also ranks dead last in pressure rate on QBs - Burrow will finally have time to throw the ball.
Rushing:
Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert - Despite paying Chase Edmonds like an RB1, the Dolphins have taken an almost even split approach with these two backs. A pain in the a**, because I can't decide who to start. Edmonds has tallied 41.1% of the team's rushing attempts, Mostert is at 42.9%. The Bengals are allowing the 5th lowest rush success rate, so I don't trust either of these guys. Flex considerations at best.
Joe Mixon - All reports indicate Mixon should be good to go tonight. Mixon's usage (23.6 touches per game) and O-Line have been great so far. If he's active, start your studs.
Receiving:
Tyreek Hill - Hill leads the Dolphins pass catchers in slot routes this year. Bengals' slot corner Mike Hilton has allowed a 70.6% catch rate and 85.4 passer rating to receivers this season. So yeah, we're starting Tyreek. Even if Tua sits.
Jaylen Waddle - Bengals perimeter defenders are struggling and Waddle runs 75% of his routes on the perimeter. I'm no genius, but there's a good shot Waddle continues his hot start. Yes, even if Tua sits.
Ja'Marr Chase - Despite recent inefficiency, Chase is 13th in the league in target share (27.8%) and 17th in air yard share (35.2%). Keep starting with confidence.
Tee Higgins - Higgins left last week's game after a huge hit but reportedly doesn't have an injury designation heading into tonight's game. Start him. But wish him well, Tee's been through the ringer.
Hayden Hurts - Former 1st rounder is worth an add everywhere. From Bengals OC Brian Callahan: weβll take 5 catches for 50 yards from TE Hayden Hurst every game. 10 PPR points, heck yea.
HOSPITAL VISITS
Stop us if you've heard this before: Christian McCaffrey is on the injury report. Matt Rhule said CMC has a quad issue that they didn't know about until after the Saints game. The Panthers HC wouldn't speculate on CMC's status for this week - @josephperson.
The Saints are preparing to pivot at QB, with Jameis Winston missing practice on Wednesday. Andy Dalton was taking first team reps and Taysom Hill took reps as the backups backup. Per @JeffDuncan, "This is different then past weeks." This makes Taysom Hill a must add everywhere - TE eligibility at the QB position is a cheat code.
"Zach Wilson has been cleared by the doctors. He is back." - @BrianCoz. It was a good run for Joe Flacco, who the NFL called a young stud.
Jonathan Taylor was added to the injury report with a toe injury and did not practice Wednesday. - @MySportsUpdate. We'll monitor.
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Week 6 is "the most realistic" return date for Dak Prescott (thumb).
QUICK SLANTS
Dwain from Fantasy Life's legendary Utilization Report covers waivers, sell highs, and buy lows. He explains why Breece Hall offers a low-end RB2 utilization score, but the rookie has a top-12 talent profile and could explode down the stretch. You can read the full report on FantasyLife.com.
This chart by Sam Hoppen explains why Brandon Bolden is confirmed in the James White role for the Raiders.
Through 3 weeks, this chart outlines the leaders in target share for their teams. Hint: Mark Andrews is first (insane 36%), with Cooper Kupp closely behind. Rookie WR Drake London is third in the entire NFL.
Matthew Berry explains why if there was every a week for Travis Etienne, this is it - in this video.
Thanks for joining us this AM! We'll have some fun announcements later this week. Enjoy your day. Or don't.
Jake, Eddie & Matt
Tweet of the Day
Play with your kids, so Peyton Manning doesn't.
STILL the best thing Peyton Manning has ever done
β Chelsa Messinger (@ChelsaMessinger)
2:39 AM β’ Sep 27, 2022
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