🏈 The Deal with Darrell (Henderson)

Good morning. Congratulations to Shan, who won a jersey of their choice for subscribing to the Even the Odds newsletter! It’s the weekend and you want to get after it, so we’ll make this quick:

Gruden Sues the NFL

Jon Gruden resigned a month ago after those emails surfaced (w/ racist, homophobic and misogynistic language). Yesterday, his lawyers filed a 21-page complaint alleging that “There is no explanation or justification for why Gruden’s emails were the only ones made public out of the 650,000 emails collected in the NFL’s investigation of the Washington Football Team.” Honestly, it’s a fair point.

• You can read the full article here.

RBs are OUT

Paragraphs like this are why you stash RBs whenever you can:

After missing practice all week, the Saints ruled Alvin Kamara out. Other notable RBs officially missing this weekend include Chris Carson (neck), Jamaal Williams, Chase Edmonds (ankle), Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and every other Browns RB not named D’Ernest Johnson.

You’ll need to keep an eye on these players:

Tweet of the Day

Player Profile: Darrell Henderson

When Darrell Henderson was drafted, no one was sure what to make of him. The first Memphis player in 13 years to finish top 10 in the Heisman voting, Henderson averaged a 98th percentile 8.9 YPC, leading the 2019 draft class. He was also first in TDs (22) and YPG (146.85), and a solid pass-catching back - catching at least 19 passes every year in college.

The Rams had an arthritis-riddled Todd Gurley (not many realized how dire Gurley’s health was) and traded up to select Henderson 70th overall - the 3rd running back drafted (behind Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders).

• Year 1: 39 carries operating as the clear RB3 behind Gurley and Malcolm Brown.

• Year 2: Rams draft Cam Akers in the 2nd round to be their starting RB. However, Henderson was quietly effective, leading Rams RBs with 4.5 YPC and 6 total TDs on 139 carries. Cam Akers was clearly the #1 tho.

• Year 3: BOOM. Opportunity emerges for Henderson after an unfortunate Cam Akers injury (Achilles, the worst kind). After the injury, McVay said he had a “ton of confidence” in Henderson and that he was a “complete player,” before confusing everyone by trading for Sony Michel.

Could Darrell Henderson be the Rams RB1 in 2022?

Despite a one-game absence, Henderson is RB11. He’s yet to see less than 60% of snaps with at least 14 touches in every game. He will continue to be a lower-end RB1 this season - Sony Michel, while a valuable handcuff, was never a threat to Henderson’s job. Henderson has the 2nd-easiest RB playoff schedule and should be a consistent 15+ on a high-powered Rams O.

Moving forward, the biggest factor will be Cam Akers health.

• The injury could significantly impact Akers long-term outlook, as research shows that achilles tears negatively affect a player’s power score, career length, and games played. Achilles tears often lead to future injuries down the line due to overcompensation.

• The list of RBs who’ve overcome an achilles injury is horrible, meaning Henderson could continue to play the lead role.

A dangerous thought: the Rams learned their lesson (after running Todd Gurley into the ground) and could use a 50/50 committee between both Akers and Henderson? Gross. 

The case for buying…

• Tee Higgins: One of only 10 receivers in the NFL to get open over 50% of the time against single-man coverage, Higgins gets soo open (video). And Joe Burrow looks for him, targeting Tee at the third-highest rate in the NFL against man coverage (36%). As Dwain McFarland said, the levy is going to break wide-open soon. Just look at this catch (video).

• Tyler Higbee: Higbee has the 4th highest usage at TE yet is TE19 in points/game. Higbee saw 10 targets last week, ran 93% of routes per dropback (higher than guys like Deebo), the Rams are 3rd in the NFL in red-zone drives, and has zero competition for snaps at the TE spot. He’s performing at his floor and should see positive TD regression soon (had one called back last week).

Quick Slants

• Zach Wilson wants to be more like Mike White. So do I.

• Terrell Owens “That’s my quarterback”, what a great teammate (video).

• The Trade Market: Fantasy Football Targets & Players to Sell for Week 10 (FantasyPros)

• NFL Week 10 Fantasy Football: Buy Low & Sell High Targets Based on High-Value Opportunities (PFF)

• Washington DE James Smith-Williams was named the Week 10 NFLPA Community MVP after he helped buy more than $3,000 in holiday gifts for children and families of domestic violence survivors.

Again, congrats to Shan for winning the Even the Odds jersey giveaway - if you haven’t yet checked out Even the Odds, you might want to. They offer an interesting and detailed newsletter telling the stories behind the bets/parlays each day.

Thanks for joining us this AM, have a great Saturday legends!

- Jake & Eddie