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Good morning. Before we get to waivers, congrats are in order:

1. To the new Morning Huddle subscribers, congrats on your 99th percentile IQ.

2. To Joshua Kelley, congrats on being the worst RB of all time. You will never be named in this newsletter again.

3. To Mike McDaniel, you’re good:

Someone reported there was a common feeling among NFL owners that the Dolphins scoring 70 points was “disrespectful” to the game of football.

We found it more disrespectful that:

• the Broncos allowed this to happen.

• the Bears stadium was robbed but the thieves left the playbooks.

• Josh McDaniels remains a HC after he decided to kick a FG in the last 3 minutes of a game down 8 points.

Yes, the Raiders trailed 23-15 and faced a fourth-and-4 from the Steelers' 8-yard line with 2:22 remaining. Instead of going for it on fourth down, McDaniels chose to kick a field goal, even though, if successful, the Raiders still would have needed a touchdown to win the game.

Week 3 Waivers produced week winners (De’Von Achane, Tank Dell, Jerome Ford) and losers (He Who Must Not Be Named).

Waivers can make or break your season, so we spent the past two days reading every waiver wire article on the internet (we found 21) to pull the best stats and insights for you.

RANKINGS

Tua Tagovailoa vaults up to QB4. The trigger man on the most explosive offense in the league is putting up 23.3 fantasy points per game despite the absence of Jaylen Waddle.

Raheem Mostert moves up to RB19 after a ridiculous performance. He has been dominant on the ground and recorded an impressive 7 catches. While he may lose snaps to De’Von Achane and Jeff Wilson (when healthy), he’s the highest-scoring RB and the RB1 in Miami.

De’Von Achane moves up to RB33. He proved his ceiling as the perfect fit in McDaniel’s wide-zone scheme. And it’s pronounced A-Chan, not A-Chain.

Davante Adams moves up to WR5 after a dominant performance on SNF (13 rec, 172 yds and 2 TDs). He continues to command targets (20 vs Steelers) and get open at will. A trade could be on the horizon: Adams said he “don’t got time to wait around” for Raiders to figure it out.

Keenan Allen moves up to WR6. And even that might be too low after Allen converted 20 targets into 18 receptions for 215 yards. While not the top-level playmaker like other WR1s, he’s the only player in NFL history to have 3 games with at least 15 receptions (per Field Yates). PPR MONSTER.

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STORY

Week 4 Waiver Wire

The must-add players to target wherever available.

Quarterback

Kyler Murray (expected to return soon - fascinated to see him play in OC Drew Petzing’s offense) or C.J. Stroud (20+ in two straight) are priority adds if available.

Russell Wilson faces a Chicago defense that ranks last or nearly last in every pass-defense metric.

Jameis Winston will take over as the Saints' starting quarterback with Derek Carr (shoulder) sidelined. Winston averaged 18.3 FPPG as a starter and has playmakers at his disposal in New Orleans. Deep/Superflex only.

Running Back

In Sunday’s Morning Huddle, we called De’Von Achane Week 3’s Jerome Ford and a must-add. We were wrong. He was Week 3’s Christian McCaffrey meets Tyreek Hill, scoring more TDs in one game than the Titans offense has scored all season. Achane had the third most points by a rookie in a single game since 2000.

De’Von Achane (16.1%) is the undisputed No. 1 add available in most leagues. After 233 total yards and four TDs, there's zero chance he reverts back to a situational player, even when Jeff Wilson and Salvon Ahmed return. Juicy matchups at home against the Giants and Panthers follow next week’s tougher Bills game.

Considering the 31-year-old Mostert's lengthy injury history, Achane could easily be this year’s league-winner. Spend what you need to, especially if you are weak at RB (40-50% FAAB).

Cam Akers is unlikely to be available, but anyone watching the Vikings game saw Mattison put the ball on the ground twice. Mattison also committed a red zone drop and was stuffed on the goal-line. Akers will get a chance and is worth a spot, for now.

Tyjae Spears (15.8%) was the Titans' backfield leader in snaps and routes against the Browns. Yes, he played more than Derrick Henry, who has averaged just 3.2 YPC, while Spears has 5.5.

Henry turns 30 by the end of the 2023 season; only Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson scored 250 or more fantasy points during their age-29-or-older seasons since 2000, per Eric Moody of ESPN. If the Titans o-line wasn’t so sh*t, Spears would be the best handcuff left.

Roschon Johnson (33.4%) played five less snaps than starter Khalil Herbert but still scored more fantasy points. Johnson has seen his snap and carry share rise in each of the past two weeks - he could lead the Bears RB committee before long. Next week, the Bears face the reeling Broncos defense that just allowed 300+ rushing yards.

Ezekiel Elliott (46.8%) faces the Cowboys in a revenge game Week 4. On a Patriots team averaging 29 rushing attempts per game behind an offensive line ranking 11th in run block win rate, Zeke is a solid flex option.

Matt Breida is typically good for 20 rushing yards and a TD (shoutout to Drew for this one). So if that’s what you need, by all means.

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen (47%), who looks younger than we remember 👆️ “has come alive in the past two weeks. He has a 27 percent target share and a 30 percent air yards share over that span. He doesn’t have the season-long upside that Dell does, but he will be much cheaper to acquire and should put up WR2/3 numbers for at least a few more weeks”, per Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports. Competing WR Jonathan Mingo is in the concussion protocol.

Tank Dell (23.3%) has been targeted 17 times in two weeks and scored 20+ fantasy points in each of his past two games. Nico Collins (3 targets) and Robert Woods (6) are clearly second and third options in Houston. Dell’s performance is sustainable. Noah Brown and John Metchie are not a threat. Add and start everywhere.

Joshua Palmer (0.7%) played 84% of the offensive snaps after Mike Williams (ACL tear, done for season) left the game. He’s the true fill-in for Williams. Last year, when Keenan Allen or Williams sat, Palmer averaged double digit FPPG (over 9 total games). Palmer in three games without Williams (but with Keenan Allen) last season:

• 8-106-2

• 5-56-0

• 7-60-0

Palmer saw 28 total targets for a 22.6% share, per @SmolaDS. Palmer is playing ahead of Quentin Johnston (see below), who hasn’t logged a snap share over 27%, per Justin Boone of The Score.

Marvin Mims (8.6%) has played only around 25% of Denver's offensive snaps, yet somehow leads the Broncos in receiving yards. The electric playmaker’s role will grow exponentially. We hope? Mims ran half as many routes as “Brandon Johnson” in Week 3…

Rashee Rice (26%) was stopped twice at the goal line, almost securing a 23-point breakout game. His 10.9 PPR points could’ve been a lot more: one catch originally called a TD and was overturned and marked at the 1, another was a 13-yard reception tackled at the 1. Buy low/add.

Wan’Dale Robinson saw an insane 56% target per route run share, “including 3 third-down targets in his first limited action (worth a stash as someone who has shown real target-earning upside in his short career)”, per Ben Gretch’s Stealing Signals.

Quentin Johnston (46.2%) is less likely to be available and will play behind Palmer in the short term. He has a higher ceiling than Palmer, but a lower floor. Anyone looking for immediate help should prioritize Palmer. Chargers HC Brandon Staley pointed out that Johnston will “have an increased role”. He was pegged as a project and has legit NFL talent, just needs time.

Romeo Doubs (27.1%) was “dealing with an injury and had his routes limited in Week 1. Since then, he has run a route on 78 and 86 percent of Jordan Love’s dropbacks. Doubs has been responsible for 20 percent of the Packers’ targets and 30 percent of their air yards. His target share may take a hit when Christian Watson returns, but Doubs is making a case to be ranked as a WR2 whenever Watson can’t suit up”, per Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports.

Jayden Reed (21.8%) saw seven targets and finished with 9.3 fantasy points, but had some missed opportunities with Jordan Love that could have resulted in a much higher output. Christian Watson is expected to miss Week 4, making Reed startable again.

Tight Ends

Luke Musgrave (13.3%) should not be available, but likely is. If Jordan Love stopped overthrowing him, Musgrave would have multiple “Sam LaPorta-in-Week-3” weeks. Musgrave recorded a season-high six receptions, eight targets and 11 fantasy points on Sunday, despite a brutal overthrow by Love. Massive game incoming (might occur against TE-friendly Lions this week).

Jake Ferguson (19.8%) scored 10 points while playing almost 70% of snaps on Sunday. Not exciting, but it’s slim pickings.

Drop list:

• A.J. Dillon struggled with Aaron Jones out and recorded double-digit negative RYOE in each of his three games. Limited upside and not a standalone starter.

• Antonio Gibson (see below), Samaje Perine, Kenneth Gainwell, Kendre Miller (had his chance, didn’t perform).

• Rashod Bateman (couldn’t get targets even with OBJ missing) and Kadarius Toney (until healthy, not worth a roster spot)

MARKETS

Relying on Ridley

📈 We’re buying Calvin Ridley. He’s had two disappointing weeks. Don’t be discouraged. Ridley has seen 15 targets over the past two games but has been hurt by drops (an NFL high 4 last week). Drops aren’t sticky and Ridley will bounce back.

📉 We’re selling Derrick Henry. “When given the opportunity to run the ball, Henry was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on seven of his 11 carries. Cleveland employed nine defenders in the box at times to stop him”, per Turron Davenport of ESPN. Henry leads all RBs in attempts with 7 or more men in the box. It may not get better. He should still command RB1 value: Rhamondre Stevenson and Kenneth Walker are good targets.

📈 We’re stashing Zach Charbonnet. The rookie RB’s snap rate has increased each game, rising to 44% in Week 3. He was 2 yards away from his first NFL TD. While Walker is the (far) better runner, Charbo’s increased usage makes him a strong stash.

📉 Sell CeeDee Lamb after his next big game. Lamb has been south of a 20% target share in two of three games to start the season. He's finished outside of the top-30 in wide receiver scoring (PPR) in both of those contests, per @LateRoundQB. You expect more consistency from your WR1.

📈 We’re buying low on Breece Hall. Jets increased Hall’s workload every week, but faced strong defences (Dallas) and stacked boxes (New England), tanking his efficiency. Even if we don’t see a QB change in NY, Hall had his four most productive games with Zach Wilson at QB in 2022. He likely won’t produce RB1 numbers this season, but a frustrated owner may sell him for RB2 cost.

📉 We’re dropping Antonio Gibson. Sunday was the best possible game script for Gibson and he still didn’t produce. He ran the ball twice for 17 yards and caught three of five targets for seven yards.

Deep Dives

Backup RBs and Austin

The idea is you pick up players the week before everyone adds them off the waiver wire. Last week, the perfect pickup was Joshua Palmer and Calvin Austin.

Calvin Austin III (1.5%) saw six targets and finished with 15.2 fantasy points. With Diontae Johnson on IR, Austin should continue to see significant targets. “He has run more routes than Allen Robinson in each of his past two outings and has a 38 percent air yards share with Johnson sidelined,” per Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports.

Rico Dowdle (2.1%) looks to be the RB2 in Dallas, out-snapping Deuce Vaughn 11 to 2 on Sunday. He showed some impressive playmaking ability in the passing game, catching his 1st career TD on one screen pass, while making the entire Arizona defense whiff on another. Dowdle is the Tony Pollard handcuff to own in Dallas.

Melvin Gordon (1%) is the next man up with Gus Edwards (concussion) being the latest victim of the Ravens injury-cursed backfield. Once Edwards left the game, Gordon largely took over early down work, with Kenyan Drake (remember him) mixing in on passing downs. Justice Hill could be back next week, but Gordon is a flier if not.

Keaton Mitchell (0.3%) is a player to watch in deeper leagues. The undrafted Ravens rookie was the 3rd fastest RB at this year’s combine — behind only De’Von Achane and Jahmyr Gibbs — and had the 5th best preseason grade among all offensive rookies, per PFF. Mitchell is currently on the IR, making him an easy stash, as he could make an instant impact in a depleted Baltimore backfield if activated in Week 5.

QUICK SLANTS

What to Do With Javonte?

📖 Read “11 Important Questions After Week 3” by KC Joyner of The Athletic ($). On holding Javonte Williams:

“The problem for Williams is that he hasn’t done much in the big play department, as his percentage of rushes of 10+ yards fell from 15.9 percent last year to only 9.1 percent this season, but the schedule portends the potential for a notable improvement… Denver has a small number of roadblocks and a lot of favorable opponents, so play the long game here and stay patient with Williams.”

📖 Read Actionable Takeaways by Davis Mattek (thread). On AJ Dillon and deep sleeper Patrick Taylor:

“AJ Dillon stinks again and earns 0 targets. He gave up passing work to Patrick Taylor (23 routes). Taylor also played the GL snaps for Green Bay. Dillon is close to droppable and certainly not startable.”

📖 Read the Data Dump by JJ Zachariason (thread). Insight into the Browns backfield post-Chubb, with Jerome Ford’s usage being exactly what fantasy managers wanted, as he played the majority of snaps on early and third downs while also taking the one goal line opportunity. RB snap shares:

• Jerome Ford: 55%

• Kareem Hunt: 21%

• Pierre Strong: 12% (note that Strong’s five carries came in garbage time)

🎙️Listen to the NFL Week 3 Instant Recap episode of the Fantasy Life podcast with Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland. 

On the Titans offense: “Derrick Henry has 3.2 yards per carry at this point in the season, he’s never even been below 4.2…I am concerned, this is one of the worst offenses in the league. I’m not crazy about playing any piece of it in fantasy. I feel fine benching DeAndre Hopkins and the rest of the passing game.”

Tweet of the Day

And if you really need a laugh, watch George Pickens miss this block and get popped (video).

Before we go, send well wishes to Mike Williams, who’s out for the season after tearing his ACL on Sunday. Williams has been dealing with injuries dating back to 2015, when he fractured the C6 vertebrae at the base of his neck at Clemson. Another elite talent plagued by injuries.

Now go be better than the Broncos today!

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Matt

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