Good morning. Welcome back to another edition of the Morning Huddle - where we ignore our families to compile fantasy football news in a mildly comedic newsletter. Think of us like a group of worse-looking, less athletic, and lazier versions of 2022 Tom Brady👇

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RANKINGS

Eagles RB D'Andre Swift dropped to RB35 after the Eagles listed 5(!!!) RBs as co-starters, while Vikings RB Ty Chandler moved to RB65 after a strong preseason showing as Minnesota's clear RB2.

Broncos TE Greg Dulcich moved to TE14 given former Saints TE Adam Trautman is being used in 1TE sets by the Sean Payton-led Broncos. We still like Dulcich, but there’s more upside with Dalton Schultz and Dalton Kincaid.

Texans WR Tank Dell was added as WR66. His momentum and the lack of a clear alpha could lead to Dell thriving in Houston. Remember: shortly after he was drafted by the Texans, CJ Stroud told team leadership that he wanted them to draft Tank Dell — and they did just that.

After showcasing his elite playmaking - his first touch was a 62-yard TD - we moved DJ Moore from WR28 to WR23. The overall pass volume in this attack is still a concern, but maybe Justin Fields does for DJ Moore what Jalen Hurts did for AJ Brown?

More adjustments to follow this week.

STORY

The Return of Ross

Some good news to start your day: Justyn Ross played his first NFL game (and scored a TD) this weekend. Why is that so special?

Justyn Ross was a generational prospect, and his 2018 season set records that remain untouched (better than DeVonta Smith, Ja’Marr Chase):

Dane Brugler, NFL Draft Analyst for The Athletic, said that a healthy Justyn Ross would be WR1 in the 2022 NFL Draft (ahead of Drake London, Chris Olave, etc). Ross went undrafted in 2022 and was signed by the Chiefs.

One hit changed everything. During practice at Clemson in 2020, Ross was tracking the ball while running a slant across the middle. He didn’t see the linebacker barrelling toward him. The collision knocked Ross down, with numbness and tingling in his arms, per Andrea Adelson of ESPN in her article.

After the hit, Clemson took Ross for routine tests to his neck and spine. Days later, he felt fine and was joining practice when he was summoned to coach Dabo Swinney’s office.

When Ross arrived, he found the entire Clemson medical team there, along with Swinney. Ross’s mom was on speakerphone. Then the doctors started explaining what they saw on the scans. Ross was stunned.

“They told Ross he had a congenital fusion in his spine, a condition he was born with called Klippel-Feil syndrome. Though he had stingers in the past, the scans on his neck and spine revealed the condition to both Ross and his mother for the first time.”

They told him he may never play football again. People with this condition should avoid activities that can injure the neck. Multiple neurosurgeons refused to clear him to play, saying the risks included paralysis or even death. Despite that, Ross never gave up.

The Recovery

So yesterday, when Ross played in an NFL preseason game and scored a touchdown, it was a beautiful thing to see.

Justyn Ross is available for free in most drafts. Justyn Ross plays with Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs love him. Here’s Justyn Ross yesterday:

MARKETS

Running Wild in Dallas

📈 Deuce Vaughn led the Cowboys in rushing with 50 yards and a TD in their first preseason game. Despite Tony Pollard, it looks like Deuce could have a significant role in the Cowboys offense. He’s small, but shifty and virtually risk-free in drafts. Watch Vaughn’s touches in this video from @ZKantzFF.

📉 One of our favourite deep dives last year, Khalil Shakir was an up-and-coming Bills WR who now appears be fifth on the team’s depth chart. In his first preseason game, Shakir only played outside (not great on a team with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis), while Deonte Harty is early favorite for the slot WR role. It is also reported that Trent Sherfield has given the Bills more juice at that position in practice, while Dalton Kincaid lurks as another threat.

📉 Christian Kirk was restricted to the slot in preseason action. Kirk played 89% of snaps in 12 personnel last season, with Zay Jones playing 65%. Most expected Kirk to remain in 12 personnel with new WR addition Calvin Ridley, but it was Jones playing in 12 personnel with the first team on Saturday.

📈 The Kenneth Gainwell off-season hype is in full effect. After surprising reports that he’s been promoted to a “feature back role”, the Eagles first preseason game seemed to confirm this as Gainwell was given the night off while Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift both played. We are still proceeding with caution drafting RBs from this crowded and unpredictable Eagles backfield.

🫡 We warned you that Chargers rookie WR Quentin Johnston was dropping passes at camp. Johnston dropped 3 more passes in his NFL preseason debut, including a long shot down the field. Preseason drops don’t matter (see Ja’Marr Chase), but many managers overreact. Buy the dip.

👀 Bears RB Room becomes clear: it’s the Khalil Herbert show. Herbert played 100% of the snaps with Justin Fields before the backups came in. D’Onta Foreman and rookie Roschon Johnson played with the backups. Expect Herbert to shoot up draft boards if this continues.

DEPTH CHARTS

Jordan Addison

After a strong preseason showing, which included that catch (video), Jordan Addison's stock is rising. The 23rd overall pick posted a solid 84.5 PFF grade and had the highlight of the night in his first NFL action. While Addison doesn't have elite athleticism, he creates separation with savvy route running.

Veteran K.J. Osborn is ahead of Addison on the Vikings' depth chart, but recent quotes from HC Kevin O'Connell suggest Addison's quick grasp of the offense could lead to him taking over as WR2. When that happens, he should get plenty of 1-on-1 opportunities opposite Justin Jefferson in an offense with the 4th most pass attempts in 2022.

Recent hype:

• O'Connell showed the team Addison's preseason catch and was quoted as saying "He showed up. Like he has all training camp."

• PFF's Brad Spielberger compared Addison's rookie season to Justin Jefferson's, saying he doesn't buy Addison being MIN's WR3

• Remember: A washed Adam Thielen saw 107 targets in this offense last year.

QUICK SLANTS

Best of the Best

📖 Read Ian Hartitz’s list of Cheapest Potential Workhorse RBs, available on FantasyLife.com. His list includes Cam Akers, who’s shown RB1 upside down the stretch of both 2020 and 2022. Ian is “not afraid to buy this mini-discount on a player who might just be this year’s middle-class version of 2022 Josh Jacobs if Sean McVay manages to prove that 2022’s 27th-place finish in points per game was a fluke” (no paywall).

📖 Read Fantasy Points’ Tom Brolley’s Training Camp Reports. “Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson has been the “clear No. 1” TE to start training camp with second-round rookie Luke Schoonmaker sidelined with plantar fasciitis, per The Athletic’s Jon Machota. He wrote that Ferguson is the favorite to see the majority of the targets left behind by Dalton Schultz, who saw 89+ targets in each of the last three seasons” (no paywall).

📖 Read Josh Scott’s Should You Care About That Small Wide Receiver? An excellent explanation on the correlation between height (think Zay Flowers) and weight (think DeVonta Smith) with fantasy success. Key: do not eliminate smaller WRs from your draft board, especially if we see them excel on the field and they have the requisite success rates to prove it (no paywall).

🎙️Debate what to do with Josh Jacobs with the fantasy football community on reddit. Best comment: “This is why I draft on Labour Day.”

📺️ Watch the Top Plays from Week 1 | NFL Preseason 2023 Highlights to catch up on everything you missed from Week 1 action.

Creator of the Day

Marvin Elequin

In this new series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) published his first article with Dynasty Nerds for a Rookie Opportunities series to understand which teams had vacancies for rookies to assume immediate roles. Since then, Marvin’s become our go-to source for fantasy football breakouts.

Marvin published an epic Dynasty Lifecycle series, which analyzed the career arcs for every fantasy position. This gave managers an idea when RBs, WRs and TEs breakout and when we can expect them to decline. It helps you avoid trading a player one year too early or holding until retirement.

Recommend you start with The Lifecycle of a Dynasty Running Back. One snippet below:

Touchdown Regression

In his most recent series, Marvin identifies the top TD regression (both positive and negative) candidates in the NFL. One snippet from each article below.

Running Back TD Regression Candidates:

Alvin Kamara was one of the most inefficient touchdown scorers in 2022, finishing with 4.62 touchdowns below expected. Kamara left about 30 fantasy points on the table, scoring only 4 TDs on 300 opportunities. With the addition of Jamaal Williams, expect Kamara’s rushing usage to decline. But if his touchdown efficiency regresses closer to the mean, Kamara could still provide high-end RB2 value.

Read the full article here.

Wide Receiver TD Regression Candidates:

Tyler Lockett was one of the most efficient wide receivers last season, scoring an elite +4.3 touchdowns over expected. This leaves plenty of room for regression, especially after Lockett only averaged a 22.7% target share. His expected fantasy value was only at 9.9, which would have ranked WR29 last season. If Lockett’s efficiency regresses to the mean, his volume may not be enough to keep him in WR2 territory.

Add in D.K. Metcalf (who scored a -1.98 TDOE) and the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Lockett may finally face an efficiency and volume declined this season.

Read the full article here.

Tweet of the Day

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