🏈 Draft Week

Good morning and welcome back to another edition of the Morning Huddle - where we make you smirk (or cry) + help you win fantasy football titles.

We're all yours. And we made it, it's officially NFL Draft week!!! LFG!! And keep those hot takes to yourself, you just never know:

And hopefully you're not a Bears fan:

Pour one out for the RBs

Before we get into the rookie class, you need to know this: RBs with 1150+ touches only have a 0.7% likelihood of finishing as a top 5 fantasy RB. Their lives are short and their workload heavy. 

There are currently 6 RBs over 1150 total carries:

Ezekiel Elliot: 1938 - Derrick Henry: 1495 - Alvin Kamara: 1285 - Joe Mixon: 1275 - Dalvin Cook: 1200 - Leonard Fournette: 1182 - (Bonus) CMC: 1138

Full thread here.

2022 QB Class

Let's look at what the experts are saying about this year’s rookie QBs (click here for RBs, here for Arbys, and here for WRs/TEs).

2022 is trending towards a down year for passers, with Scott Barrett comparing this group to the 2016 class (you know, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch). It is the first year in recent memory with a non-QB likely going first overall and no team eager to move up.

Before we get into the rookies, who's looking? QB-needy teams include:

• Carolina Panthers (still hodling hope for Sam Darnold)

• Pittsburgh Steelers (despite dynamic duo Mitch Trubisky & Mason Rudolph)

• Houston Texans (Davis Mills' neck is too long)

• Seattle Seahawks (*checks depth chart, sees Drew Lock*)

• Detroit Lions (N/A)

• Atlanta Falcons (Marcus Mariota hasn't played for a reason)

• New Orleans Saints (pending Andy Dalton’s inevitable fill-in role)

Five Guys, Burgers and Fries

No tiers this week, just a look at the five guys who could land on any of the above teams and find fantasy relevance:

1. Malik Willis 

Pros: Willis is one of the best runners we’ve seen at QB (video comparisons to Lamar Jackson and Michael Vick) combined with elite arm strength (Panthers OC Ben McAdoo called it “generational”). Michael F. Florio's prospect rankings by who he thinks will be best for fantasy football QB:

1. Malik Willis

*huge gap*

2. Sam Howell 3. Desmond Ridder 4. Matt Corral 5. Kenny Pickett

Cons: Red flags include Willis' age (he turns 23 next month), his erratic accuracy, and lack of high-level competition while at Liberty. 

Willis may go as early 2nd overall (Lions) and is expected to be the first QB off the board. As a "Konami code" QB, Willis has tremendous upside if he finds his way into a starting role. He has some legendary company among college rushing QBs, placing just behind Lamar Jackson for 2nd in NCAA rushing fantasy points per game.

2. Kenny Pickett 

Pros: Scouts love his accuracy, decision-making, and athleticism. He has rushing upside despite being a traditional pocket passer, as was apparent with his rule-setting fake slide. He also broke Dan Marino's record for passing touchdowns, and after 52 games over five seasons at Pitt, Pickett is the most experienced QB in the draft.

Cons: One of the more interesting and controversial data points is his hand size, which measured at only 8.5 inches. For reference, there are currently zero starting QBs with hands under 9 inches. If you’re a hand-size truther, you may want to avoid Pickett in all fantasy formats. Also, the soon-to-be 24 year old didn’t break out until his final year of college.

A majority of mocks have Pickett landing somewhere in the first round but many speculate that he would be a day 2 pick if this was any other year. He's been compared to Jay Cutler and Derek Carr, which isn't every kid's dream.

3. Desmond Ridder

Pros: A former multi-year starter at Cincinnati, Ridder blew scouts away at the combine, posting a 4.52/40 (better than Justin Hurts, Colin Kaepernick). Even with an athletic profile, Ridder is a pocket-QB first and runner second. And he can throw it deep: Ridder's 131.4 Passer Rating on 20+ yard throws led college football. On 73 deep passes (20+ YDS) last season, Ridder recorded zero turnover worthy throws, per PFF.

Cons: The biggest concern for most coaches and scouts is Ridder’s ability to keep his accuracy consistent and develop into a solid NFL starter. And Jake Tribbey makes a great point here:

If one thing is certain, it’s that Ridder knows how to win games. He won 43 of his 49 starts in college and topped it off with a trip to the College Football Playoffs in 2021. He's consistently compared to Russell Wilson. Ridder is one of three players Evan Silva believes the NFL is higher on than draft twitter/draft media and thus could go earlier than expected. 

4. Matt Corral

Pros: Corral was efficient and productive during his final two seasons at Ole Miss. He led the FBS in total offense per game (384.3 yards) in 2020 and finished seventh in Heisman voting in 2021. Many scouts seem to think Corral’s game tape is the best of all the QBs in this draft. Corral’s biggest strength is his accuracy, which does not deteriorate under pressure. He also fought Wayne Gretzky's son, who looks like someone worth scrapping.

Cons: Weak deep ball, reminds people of Jimmy G, and will need an RPO or run-heavy system to succeed in the NFL. Yes, he reminds people of Jimmy G. 

It’s a little uncertain where he falls in the draft. Some mocks have Corral landing with the Lions at pick 32, with others having him as a day 2 pick. With comps ranging from Joe Burrow and Daniel Jones to Jimmy G, Corral may be worth a look in fantasy in the right landing spot.

5. Sam Howell 

Pros: Howell is a capable scrambler with the potential to add yards on the ground. He can challenge defenses as a deep passer and is in a very elite group of QBs that not a lot of people know about - 80+ Passing TD Early Declares. This impressive list puts Howell in the company of Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and others.

Cons: An early candidate as the top 2022 QB prospect, Howell struggled after losing his supporting cast (Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, Dyami Brown). This led to a poor 5-7 season for Howell and UNC. One of Howell’s biggest red flags is the large number of sacks he takes. Likely a day 2 pick, Howell may not get much opportunity in his rookie year. And then there's this:

Best Fantasy Content This Week:

Establish The Run's podcast covers the prospect outlooks of this year’s QB class (and RBs) with NBC’s Thor Nystrom. Important quote from the pod: "The biggest concern I have with Kenny Pickett is that he was a 'one-year-wonder'".

Tom Pelissero of NFL.com gathered pro execs, scouts, coaches to break down the 2022 QB class. An NFC coordinator said this about Malik Willis: "Now, there's some holes in his game. [But] to me, he's a better prospect than Trey Lance was a year ago and a better prospect than Justin Fields was a year ago."

Pat Kerrane delivers with his 2022 Pre-Draft Rookie Quarterback Ranks and Profiles for NBC Sports Edge. "Matt Corral played within his system as a passer, regardless of the situation. An NFL team may view that, understandably, as an asset. But a consistently conservative quarterback isn't the most thrilling archetype for fantasy."

Dwain McFarland wrote a great article on reverse engineering an adaptable, winning 2022 draft plan. And you won't want to miss the below article:

Quick Slants

• The Jets are “all in” on using pick No. 10 to acquire Deebo Samuel, while the Giants are apparently looking to trade WR Kadarius Toney. Toney took to Instagram and said, “If you believe everything on the internet, you gullible.”

• JJ Arcega-Whiteside of the Eagles is pulling a Kelvin Benjamin and moving from WR to TE. Popeyes biscuits will do that to a man.

• D'Andre Swift was asked if he ever thinks about what it's going to be like to run behind the Lions offensive line. He was smiling before the question was finished, then said: "That thought crosses my mind at least once a day."

• Word on the streets of Foxboro is that Jakobi Meyers is looking jacked, added 15 -20 lbs of mass/muscle. Did exactly what coaches asked him to do for off-season.

Best of luck to all of your favorite teams, fantasy big boards, and prop bets, with the draft this week. The draft takes place Thu, Apr 28, 2022 – Sat, Apr 30, 2022. Kevin Costner is ready - now you are, too.

Thanks for joining us this morning. And don't forget to check out our podcast by Coach Wehler!

- Jake, Eddie, Coach Wehler & Matt

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