🏈 Elijah Mitchell, we should've known

Good morning. We're one day away from the best day of the week. Let's get into it.

Pray for Pat

As Harvey Dent said, “The night is darkest just before the dawn. And dawn is coming.” Hang in there Patrick.

Player Profile: Elijah Mitchell

Mitchell was taken No. 194 overall out of Lousiana-Lafayette, where he averaged 6.2 YPC. Louisiana’s run scheme is similar to the 49ers: outside zone with one-cut, north/south running principles. Immediately following the draft, PFF posted this:

Still, who knew Elijah Mitchell would have more value than Trey Sermon and Raheem Mostert at Week 8? Not us. And not many others. But maybe we should have.

Some preseason quotes:

• Kyle Shanahan after Mitchell’s first preseason game: "I thought he looked real good"

• 49ers beat writer: “I thought Elijah Mitchell was the most impressive back early in 49ers camp”

• 49ers writer David Liechty: “Mitchell is an ideal one cut back for Shanahan’s outside zone scheme… I believe Mitchell could prove the better of the two backs this year.”

• @ProspectorFF: “Elijah Mitchell could see a training camp/preseason hype explosion. Look at those physical traits.”

The hype train halted abruptly after Mitchell suffered a hip injury and was expected to miss the entire preseason. But, he gutted it out and only missed the first two preseason games. After that, his first two preseason carries went for 7 and 9 yards. Mitchell looked great returning kicks and laid the BOOM on a Raiders defender.

We should have known, especially after Trey Sermon was a healthy scratch Week 1.

Mitchell went off in his first NFL game (video of every play). Here’s what we wrote in our Waiver Wire issue:

So what’s next for Elijah Mitchell?

Mitchell suffered a shoulder injury in Week 2, giving the world a chance to see what Trey Sermon could do. And Sermon showed us nothing special. More importantly, he showed Kyle Shanahan nothing special:

Mitchell owns this backfield. In Week 7, he saw 66% of snaps and 75% of the RB touches for 18-107-1.

Despite being hardly used in the passing game, Mitchell is yet to go under 60% of snaps when healthy, already had his bye week, and has at least 11 touches/game. 

• SF’s schedule for the fantasy playoffs is fantastic, with matchups against the Falcons, Titans and Texans (all allowing 4.4 YPC or higher).

• The biggest wild-card is Kyle Shanahan. Exhibit A: abandoned the run in Week 7 despite Mitchell’s early brilliance (80 yards in the 1st qtr and only 93 at half).

Mitchell is easily an RB2 with volume & 49ers strong run game. But until he sees passing work, Mitchell can’t be in the RB1 conversation.

He’s a great buy for any RB-needy team and is still undervalued. Give up a bigger name WR and handcuff RB (think Alex Mattison) for a sure-fire starter with a great playoff schedule.

PFF’s Matchups to Watch

This PFF article outlines the key matchups of Week 8. Fantasy highlights:

• WR Justin Jefferson vs. CB Trevon Diggs - “Sunday Night Football provides us with a matchup between two of the most exciting young players at their respective positions. Diggs has 136 snaps in press coverage through the season's first six weeks (top-20), and no wide receiver has produced more receiving yards versus press coverage since 2020 than Jefferson (943).” Advantage, JJ.

• TE Kyle Pitts vs. S Jeremy Chinn - “Pitts has found his footing in the NFL, turning 19 targets into 282 receiving yards across the Falcons' past two games. Chinn's combination of size and athleticism makes the second-year safety a difficult matchup for TE’s, allowing only five catches on 10 tight end targets into his coverage for 53 yards this season.”

• WR Mike Evans vs. CB Marshon Lattimore - “The two have lined up across from each other on 230 pass snaps in their eight career meetings since 2017 (2nd most in the NFL), and they don’t like each other: Evans was suspended for a hit on Lattimore back in 2017. Lattimore has recently dominated the meetings. Since 2019, Evans has just one three-yard touchdown reception on seven targets in Lattimore’s coverage during the regular season.”

• This & Antonio Brown’s injury offers a great opportunity for Chris Godwin to dominate again (8 for 111 and a TD last week).

• WR Terry McLaurin vs. CB Patrick Surtain II - “Washington's passing offense revolves around McLaurin, who has seen 43 more targets than any other WFT receiver. McLaurin's one of the best WRs in the game, evidenced by his 19 contested catches (eight more than any other receiver in the NFL). The rookie Surtain has a tough challenge and has to finish plays, even if he's in position.”

Injury Updates

Our friends at Establish the Run highlight all the players OUT this week:

The “questionable” tag is more difficult and we must prepare for them to sit. Think Foster Moreau last week. Rashaad Penny remains worth an add in the off-chance Alex Collins (groin) sits (Chris Carson is still out). Two others to watch are Austin Ekeler (hip) and Dakota Prescott (calf).

ETR doesn’t sponsor the newsletter or anything, but they were the first content I ever paid for & thought I’d let you know their subscription is $70 off this weekend.

Quick Slants

• If you need a laugh, or just want one, watch this video on why Jameis Winston is the best QB (ever)

• A must-read article on fantasy football dynasty trades by @Cooper_DFF.

• DeSean Jackson and the Rams mutually agreed to explore a trade.

• Robert Tonyan tore his ACL Thursday and will miss the season. Wishing him a speedy & healthy recovery.

• Jordan Howard is expected to be added to the Eagles roster after practicing with the starters this week. His role Sunday is still unknown, but you already know he’s going to piss us all off.

The Analogy of the Day

Starting an analogy is a dangerous game and it’s often better to just not do it. Nick Sirianni’s flower analogy is a reminder for all of us (video). I’m sorry Eagles fans.

• Kevin Hart tries to explain what Nick was thinking (video - skip to 12:30).

Thanks for joining me this morning! And remember, the only way the roots grow strong is if we all fertilize and water.

- Eddie