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π Familiar Faces
Positional Review + we break down the Seattle Seahawks
Good morning. Despite playing for (what he called) a Hall of Fame QB, Davante Adams time on the Raiders is frustrating. Just ask the Chiefs cameraman (video). For our blind readers: on his way to the locker room, Adams shoved an innocent photographer, knocking him to the ground.
But don't worry, the cameraman is taking full advantage of the opportunity to secure the bag, filing a report with the Kansas City Police Department, alleging assault. Per the report: "The injuries are preliminarily thought to be non-life threatening." He legit just fell and got up, a rookie move.
me as soon as Davante Adams push me
β JB (@doitgrip)
3:46 AM β’ Oct 11, 2022
Today's newsletter has a position-by-position rundown, some extra fantasy football content for our fellow animals and key updates from around the league.
QUARTERBACKS
Familiar Faces in the Same Places
The world returned to normal Week 5, with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes finishing as QB1 and QB2. They also lead the NFL in passing TDs (15 for Mahomes and 14 for Allen) and total TDs.
Allen and Mahomes also are QB1 and QB2 in EPA/drop back - EPA means Expected Points Added and is a measure of how well a team performs relative to expectation. EPA / dropback is a better measure of a QBs contribution to the offense than passer rating or yards per pass. Full article on EPA here.
And guess who faces off in Week 6? Bills @ Chiefs. This Sunday.
Jared Goff returned to normal too. Against the Patriots, Goff threw for 229 yards with two turnovers and only completed 54% of his passes. Goff historically struggles against Belichick, with 2:5 career TD:INT ratio. Don't panic.
Trevor Lawrence threw two picks and failed to score a TD. In the past two weeks, he has had 2 TDs, 3 INTs and 4 fumbles lost, with a passer rating of 69. Nice. But inconsistent play makes Legolas hard to trust.
Tom Brady has thrown 736 yards on 104 pass attempts over the past two games. He's third in the NFL in passing yards and clearly is the biggest beneficiary of Chris Godwin getting healthier each week. Brady should put up top-10 QB numbers going forward.
Tom Bradyβs groomsmen for his next wedding
β nap time is 3pm (@RyanLeeMP)
10:25 PM β’ Oct 9, 2022
RUNNING BACKS
Nick Chubb: DAWG
Nick Chubb leads the NFL in rushing yards (593), rushing TDs (7), missed tackles (43) and rushing grade (90.3). It feels like I'm facing him every week. Making it even more impressive, Chubb is doing all this while splitting touches with Kareem Hunt.
NFL rushing leaders through Week 5
1. Nick Chubb (593)
2. Saquon Barkley (533)
3. Nick Chubb after contact (415)
4. Miles Sanders (414)
5. Dameon Pierce (412)β Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge)
7:23 PM β’ Oct 10, 2022
The Breece Hall breakout has officially arrived. In Week 5, Hall rushed for 97 yards on 18 carries and added 100 yards receiving, all career highs (197 total yards). He is 10th in the entire NFL in yards from scrimmage, despite seeing less than 50% of the snaps in his first two weeks.
With Damien Harris (hamstring) expected to miss multiple weeks, Bill Belichick said he has as much confidence as you could possibly have with Rhamondre Stevenson as a 3 down back. Giddy up.
AJ Dillon only received 6 carries in week 5, did not get targeted for the first time all season and saw a season low 32% of the snaps despite averaging 5.7 YPC. I would buy low (especially given Aaron Jones' comments after the loss), but don't start Dillon.
Joe Mixon averaged over 3.5 YPC for the first time this season (5.87) but still only saw 14 carries for 78 yards. While he ran better, Mixon still only has 1 TD on the season. Some positive TD progression should be coming. We hope.
Joe Mixon inside the five-yard line this season:
7 carries
0 TDβ Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz)
10:36 PM β’ Oct 10, 2022
WIDE RECEIVERS
Steady Seahawks
Remember when switching to Geno Smith was a negative for Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf's value? How the tables turn. Through five weeks, Lockett is WR8 and Metcalf is WR20. Lockett has the best catch rate of his career and DK hasn't missed a beat. They are safe options for the rest of the year with Pete Carroll letting Geno do what Russ can't: cook.
Khalil Shakir rewarded everyone who read the Morning Huddle with 3 catches, 75 yards and a TD. He had a 14% target share and ran only 4 less routes than Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs.
Gabe Davis was WR1 in week 5 with 171 yards and 2 TDs, on only 3 catches. Diggs also had a top 10 WR finish and is 4th in the NFL in receiving yards. Start Bills WRs.
Since Alec Pierce returned in Week 3, he has a higher target per route run rate and yards per route run than Michael Pittman. Only Chris Olave has a higher yard per route run than Pierce in the entire NFL. Pickup Pierce wherever you can.
George Pickens led the Steelers in receiving since Pickett took over, and in Pickett's first NFL start he threw for the most passing yards by a Steelers QB since Jan 10th 2021. There's hope here. And Pickens is a dawg.
Iβm a big fan of the George Pickens method for getting open.
β Kraig Riley (@KraigRiley)
5:21 PM β’ Oct 9, 2022
TIGHT END
Taysom Time
This is why Taysom Hill is a TE cheat code: Travis Kelce scored 4 TDs in Week 5 and still scored less points than the TE who didn't catch a pass. Hill rushed for 112 yards and 3 TDs and threw a passing TD. Saints beat writers believe Hill will be heavily utilized in the offense going forward. Buy/add, like we've said all season.
Mark Andrews currently has a 33% target share. No TE has ever posted more than a 30% target share in NFL history. He also is averaging 95.7 air yards per game, more than AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase.
TJ Hockenson followed up his TE1 explosion in Week 4 with 1 reception for 6 yards last week. Pain.
If you're looking for a sleeper TE, pickup Cade Otton. The Buccaneers TE saw a huge opportunity in Week 5 and could see an expanded role going forward.
Cade Otton ran more routes than any TE in Week 5. 34% of them came from the slot where he hit a target per slot route run of 0.25
Only Mark Andrews, Tyler Higbee, and Kyle Pitts have a higher target per route run from the slot than 0.25 across the season.
β Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF)
5:03 PM β’ Oct 11, 2022
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CONTENT
Y'all got any more of that content?
Quality reads/listens for your fantasy fix - all without paywalls:
The Week 6 Utilization Report is LIVE @MBFantasyLife π€
Kenneth Walker III to the moon π
This veteran RB is in an every-down role π
Rachaad White is Tony Pollard Β©οΈ
3 ascending young WRs π
4 sneaky RB stash options π₯ΈAs always, it's free y'all π₯
fantasylife.com/articles/redraβ¦β Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland)
5:36 PM β’ Oct 11, 2022
Everyone always complains that people do waiver content for leagues they aren't in. MB Fantasy Life customized their new waiver tool by league size to help you find the right guys for your league.
Everyone always complains that people do waiver content for leagues they aren't in.
We customize our new waiver tool by league size to help you find the right guys for your league.
As with everything else @MBFantasyLife its 100% FREE
fantasylife.com/tools/waiver-wβ¦
β Eliot Crist π (@EliotCrist)
6:28 PM β’ Oct 11, 2022
QUICK SLANTS
Mike Tomin said Jaylen Warren's role will continue to grow going forward. Warren could possibly overtake Najee Harris and it's looking more like a timeshare here.
TE Dalton Schultz reaggravated his sprained PCL injury in Week 5. No new damage was reported, so if he is able to practice this week he should be ok for Week 6. Buying where I can.
Baker Mayfield suffered a high-ankle sprain and is likely to miss at least 4 games. Pray for DJ Moore. Although maybe this is a good thing?
Despite firing Matt Rhule, Jeff Howe from our friends at The Athletic reports the Panthers are not actively shopping CMC.
Thanks for joining us this morning - see you tomorrow. Jabroni.
Jake Eddie, Matt
Tweet of the Day
A moment for Geno Smith:
Geno Smith has been a mad man this year. Week 5 vs this Saints he put on a Dime clinic.
Ridiculous throw compilation.
β Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield)
7:39 PM β’ Oct 10, 2022
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