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Good morning. Welcome back to another boring Mond… oh wait, you’re reading the Morning Huddle. And there are two NFL games tonight. Let’s GOOOOO.

Congrats to everyone who mortgaged their house to grab Puka Nacua last week and are now taking a well-deserved victory lap.

Morning Huddle Update: Many of you wrote that a Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday morning newsletter would be better than our standard Mon-Wed-Fri. We agree. Going forward, we’re following this schedule.

• Tues: Waiver Wire Adds

• Thurs: Start/Sit, Takeaways and Trade Targets

• Sun: Start/Sit, Injury Updates & Best Plays

My personal schedule?

• Monday: MNF

• Tuesday: turn into an NPC

• Wednesday: more NPC activity

• Thursday: TNF

• Friday: full NPC + alcohol

• Saturday: College Football

• Sunday: RedZone/SNF

RANKINGS

Joe Burrow falls to QB8 after tweaking his calf during another lackluster performance. He’s looked uncomfortable after sitting out the preseason and may miss even more time, depending on his calf.

Kyren Williams moves up to RB23 after taking over the starting job in LA. More on him below…

Meanwhile, Cam Akers falls to RB40 after finding himself in the doghouse again. Akers was held out of yesterday’s game and is reportedly being placed on the trading block. We’re stuck in purgatory until he finds a new home.

Puka Nacua, aka Cooper Kupp Lite, continues his ascension up to WR40. Nacua has slid right into the heavily targeted slot role in Sean McVay’s scheme, and he beat Anquan Boldin’s NFL record for the most receptions (Puka: 26, Anquan’s former record: 18) for a rookie through his first two NFL games. He’s a must-start (at least) until Kupp returns.

Nico Collins moves up to WR43 after back-to-back strong performances. The 6’4 third-year receiver is the top target for C.J. Stroud, averaging 10 targets, 6.5 catches, 113 yards, and 20.8 fantasy points per game. With the Texans trailing often, expect Collins to collect garbage time stats all season.

STORY

Waivers (Tomorrow)

Keep an eye on your inbox Tuesday morning, we’re prepping a comprehensive waiver wire review. Today’s brief outline of 7 stats for players we’re thinking about:

QB Baker Mayfield is worth monitoring after he tied for the most passing yards under pressure in a game since 2020, per Next Gen Stats. His impressive start is notable because Dave Canales, Baker’s current OC, was Geno Smith’s QB coach during Geno’s 2022 transformation.

But honestly, we just needed an excuse to include that photo.

RB Kyren Williams: Without Cam Akers in the mix, Williams played 96.2% of LA's offensive snaps (@LateRoundQB).

RB Roschon Johnson was barely outsnapped by Khalil Herbert (30 to 22) in Week 2.

RB Matt Breida. After Saquon Barkley limped off with a sprained ankle that “could have been much worse” per Jordan Schultz, Matt Breida became a must-add. Even if Saquon is OK, it is likely he misses Thursday’s game against the 49ers on a short week.

WR Darius Slayton was third among WRs in Air Yards (with 132), behind only Mike Williams and Justin Jefferson (@SamHoppen).

TE Luke Musgrave: Per Next Gen Stats, Musgrave led the Packers in routes run with 23 (@LateRoundQB).

WR Demario Douglas: Only two rookie WRs drafted in rounds 5-7 checked all three categories of @fball_insights chart (below). One was Puka Nacua. The other? Patriots rookie WR Demario Douglas, who was targeted twice on his first 6 snaps, but fumbled and was banished to Belichick’s doghouse yesterday (Douglas didn't see the field again).

But Douglas looked explosive and faces minimal WR competition in New England. In Week 1, he tied for second on the team with a 13.46% target percentage (in limited snaps).

MARKETS

New RB1 in Town

📈 We’re loving Zack Moss. Moss saw a 98% snap share and was the only Colts RB to play an offensive snap in Week 2, finishing with 107 total yards and a TD. While gamescript was in his favour against a weak Texans team, Moss looks like a potential weekly RB1 until Taylor returns.

📈 We might believe in Josh Reynolds. Following a solid Week 1, Reynolds had the best performance among Lions WRs in Week 2 with 23.6 PPR points (WR9). From Week 2-5 last season, Reynolds averaged 13.25 FPPG before Jameson Williams returned. He should remain productive until Williams returns in Week 7.

👀 We’re monitoring Jayden Reed’s usage. Reed led the Packers with a 32% target share, finishing with 4 receptions on 8 targets for 37 yards and 2 TDs. No other Packer WR had more than 4 targets…

But both Christian Watson and Aaron Jones missed this game and are the undisputed top options in Green Bay. If leaguemates rush to grab Reed, let them.

📉 We’re benching Antonio Gibson. Gibson only played 6 fewer snaps than teammate Brian Robinson, but Robinson out-attempted Gibson 18 to 2. Robinson has also out-targeted Gibson 5 to 4 through 2 games. This is Robinson’s backfield, for now.

📉 We’re keeping an eye on the following key players that came away with injuries on Sunday:

• Davante Adams left Sunday’s game early to be evaluated for a concussion

• Saquon Barkley limped off the field late and did not return. X-Rays on came back negative and early reports indicate it is a high-ankle sprain. Per @SportMDAnalysis, high ankle sprains drop RB numbers up to 20% for 4 games

• David Montgomery was carted to the locker room with a thigh injury and said the injury could sideline him “a couple of weeks” (via @davebirkett)

• Anthony Richardson left the game with a concussion and did not return

• Joe Burrow said he tweaked his calf on Sunday and will take things “day-by-day”

👦 We feel for Zach Wilson. He’s really, really bad. Per @fbgchase, Wilson has 745 career dropbacks (pass attempts + completions). On those, he has completed 371 passes. That’s a 49.8% completion percentage if you include sacks as incompletions. But he’s making $35 million, so our pity is (very) limited.

Signal or Noise?

Pierce 📉 while Williams 🔥 

After a promising rookie season, Dameon Pierce entered 2023 with high expectations. So far, Pierce has a total of 26 carries for only 69 yards (nice, but still) and 0 TDs. The major appeal for Pierce was a bellcow role, but after sub-50% snap shares in both games this season, it’s clear this backfield is more of a committee.

To make things worse, Pierce is also running behind the worst offensive line in the NFL. With only one healthy starter left, Pierce is getting stuffed at the line on 40% of his carries. Every Pierce carry looks like a Bruce Lee fight scene — bad guys swarming him from every direction (@Fitz_FF). ¾ lineman are on the IR, meaning it’s unlikely to improve this season. Dynasty buy, regular season sell.

Meanwhile, Kyren Williams saw his usage sky-rocket after Cam Akers was a healthy scratch. This is Williams’ backfield going forward. In a tough matchup against the 49ers, Williams was the PPR RB2 overall (28 FPTS) while posting a 96% snap share and an 87% route participation (per @AlexCaruso) — that’s elite RB1 usage. And when Sean McVay has a clear starting RB, the results have been impressive:

Williams is a must-start going forward. If he’s somehow still available in your league (currently rostered in only 58.9% of ESPN leagues), sell the farm. Spend that FAAB.

QUICK SLANTS

Usage is King

📖 Read JJ Zachariason’s Week 2 thread, with numbers and data from Sunday’s slate of games. Two interesting targets:

Trade for Josh Jacobs. “The bad news: Josh Jacobs hasn't scored 10 PPR points in a game yet this year, when he did that in 12 of 17 games last year.

The good news: He's got over an 18% target share and has seen about 85% of the team's running back rushes this season. The backs with an 80% RB rush share and 15% target share so far this year are Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley.”

Trade for Rachaad White. “White played 74% of Tampa Bay's snaps, saw 63% of their running back rushes, and hit a 15.6% target share today. He now has 34 rush attempts through two games, a top-six number in the league entering tonight's game.”

📖 Read Early Waiver Wire Pickups by @tjhorgantv of FantasyPros. On why Jordan Love is worth adding:

“Love put up 20+ points without top running back Aaron Jones, top receiver Christian Watson, and elite left tackle David Bakhtiari. He deserves to be rostered as a matchup-dependent play.”

Love is currently the QB2 in fantasy football on the season and should get his best weapons back soon.

📖 Read NFL Week 2 takeaways by Mike Jones, Dan Pompei, and Ted Nguyen of The Athletic. Snippet:

“This is the second week in a row that Russell Wilson turned back into a pumpkin after halftime. His numbers will be plumped up from the Hail Mary, but he threw a bad interception and the offense was mostly ineffective in the second half. It seems when Payton’s script runs out, Wilson really struggles. Wilson seems to be playing a little better than last season, but he’s extremely limited at this point in his career. I don’t see the situation getting much better.”

📖 Read about Jake Plummer, the former NFL quarterback who wants to live forever and believes mushrooms will save the world. And no, not those mushrooms...

📺️ Watch undrafted rookie Ivan Pace Jr. show why he was the steal of the offseason (video)

📺️ Watch Patriots special teamer Brenden Schooler get a running start before blocking Jason Sanders' 49-yard field goal attempt (video)

Creator of the Day

Nick Zylak

In this new series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Nick Zylak (@NickZylakFFA) has a Master's in Sports Analytics and specializes in machine learning models and analytics, creating fantasy football videos on YouTube through Fantasy Football Advice. His first-ever video discusses the Zero RB Strategy over 8 years ago. Over the last three years, Nick has placed in the top 3 in industry-wide multi-season rankings accuracy, per FantasyPros.

Each offseason, Nick scrapes over 100,000 fantasy football teams to learn what draft strategies at each position worked best. He presents it as the historical draft strategy success project. He also gave us a sneak peek into an in-season app coming soon to his website, which will allow members to collect stats like air yards, expected fantasy points, target share, etc. in one place.

Trade Targets

In his Week 2 ‘Trade For These Players!’ video, Nick suggested we target Tee Higgins, Treylon Burks & Drake London. Thankful for Nick for that one:

• Tee Higgins: Caught 8/12 targets for 89 yards and 2 touchdowns (28.9 PPR points, WR4).

• Treylon Burks: Caught 3/4 targets for 76 yards as a serviceable flex or top-end bench piece. Target him for quality depth and spot starts.

• Drake London: Caught 6/7 targets for 67 yards and a touchdown while the team threw the ball 32 times.

We’ll be a keeping a close out for Nick’s Week 3 Trade For These Players video.

You can follow Nick on Twitter, subscribe to Fantasy Football Advice on YouTube and gain access to his industry-leading analytics here ($).

Tweet of the Day

Things that have happened with Brandon Staley as Chargers HC (@EatYourReedies):

• Blown 27-0 lead in the playoffs

• Mike Williams gets hurt in a pointless Week 18 game

• 41-29 loss against the 3-11 Texans

• Fourth-most points allowed

• Sixth-most yards allowed

Should Staley be the first coach to go this season?

Before we go, be sure to send your well wishes to Cardinals fans, who thought they might actually win yesterday.

See you tomorrow.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus, Matt & Sean

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