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š Finale
Deeep dives as we approach the end of the regular season. Someone say playoffs...
Good morning. Welcome to the final week of the regular season. Where the same NFL scheduling š¤” who put the Broncos in multiple primetime games decided to have six teams on a bye. In Week 14.
Needing a win to clinch the playoffs but there are SIX teams on bye
ā FantasyPros (@FantasyPros)
1:00 AM ā¢ Dec 7, 2022
There's a chance you've got players missing this week. Don't worry. Everyone does. We're all f***d, but at least we're together!
Today's newsletter has a position-by-position rundown, DEEP DIVES and updates from around the league.
QUARTERBACKS
Who Dey?
The Bengals O-Line is finally protecting Joe Burrow. The QB4 on the season, Burrow has only been sacked once in 3/4 games during the Bengals four-game win streak (he was sacked 13 times in the first two weeks of the season alone). Hereās the list of quarterbacks who have beaten Patrick Mahomes three times: Tom Brady, Joe Burrow.
Jared Goff is heating up, throwing for 340 yards and 2 TDs last week. He's thrown 0 INTs in his last 120 passes, and there's a great video where Goff learns that he's been nominated for the Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year Award from some of the Detroit students he has impacted.
Justin Fields might have one shoulder, but remains a cheat code with his rushing ability. He has at least one rushing TD in his past 6 games. Fields is borderline QB1 whenever he plays.
Deshaun Watson struggled in his first game back, throwing for 131 yards, 1 INT and 0 TDs. He also had the worst completion percentage over expectation of his career (by far). Can't say I'm surprised after two-years away from football.
Doctors concluded yesterday that 49ers' QB Jimmy Garoppolo does not need foot surgery, it is not a Lisfranc injury, and if rehab goes smoothly, he could have a chance to return in 7-8 weeks, making him a potential playoff contributor - just not for your fantasy team.
RUNNING BACKS
Dairy Sanders Returns
After splitting touches with Elijah Mitchell, Christian McCaffrey exploded without Mitchell in Week 13. CMC finished as the RB1 last week and should continue to see that volume with Mitchell out for the year and rookie QB Brock Purdy targeting CMC 10 times. Could we see beast-mode CMC? My fantasy teams hope so.
AJ Dillon had his second straight game with a TD and saw extended playing time with Aaron Jones suffering a shin injury in the second half. Dillon (like most backup RBs) historically plays better in the second half of the season, so I hope you stashed him.
To the dismay of Isiah Pacheco fantasy owners, Jerick McKinnon continues to dominate snaps when KC is inside the 5 yard line. He is still a rookie, so maybe that changes?
Samaje Perine had his second straight top 10 RB performance in relief of Joe Mixon, rushing for 106 yards on 21 carries and catching 6 passes. He's making a strong case to have a significant role in the offense, even when Mixon returns. Mixon is expected back next week.
An important RB chart:
Top rushers in yards AFTER contact in Week 13:
1) Kareem Hunt
2) Bam Knightš
3) Rhamondre Stevenson
4) Josh Jacobs
t5) Tony Pollard
t5) Daniel Jonesš¤Ŗ
7) Nick Chubb
8) Tyler Allgeierš§
9) Cordarrelle Pattersonš§
10) Jonathan Taylor
11) Jordan Masonāļø
12) Samaje Perinešā Corbin (@corbin_young21)
11:05 PM ā¢ Dec 6, 2022
WIDE RECEIVERS
Eagles Continue to Fly
AJ Brown brought a new meaning to the term "revenge game" after beating up his former team so bad the Titans fired their GM yesterday. He finished with 119 yards and 2 TDs - Brown is now WR5 overall. Teammate Devonta Smith also finished with over 100 yards and a TD.
Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf torched the Rams, combining for 17 catches 255 yards and 2 TDs. They are both top 15 WRs on the year and should continue to excel with Geno Smith still slinging it.
Drake London had a career high 95 yards in Week 13. Compared to other rookie WRs in his class, he has had a disappointing season. I blame Marcus Mariota and Arthur Smith for the Falcons offense being 31st in the passing yards, passing attempts and passing completions.
Christian Watson had 24.4 Fantasy Points Week 13 and is now WR3 in Total Points for Wks 10-13.
Diontae Johnson ranks 7th in targets (105) and 40th in receiving yards (565). Among all WRs with at least as many targets, this is the 17th-worst season by YPT (5.4) since targets became a stat, per @ScottBarrettDFB.
If Mike White continues to start, keep on firing up Garrett Wilson - a league winner. Wilson saw a career high 15 targets last week catching 8 passes for 162 yards. Wilson said after the game "there's something special about [Mike White]".
Garrett Wilson w/out Zach Wilson
11.0 targets per game
9.6 first read targets per game
117.0 air yards per game
20.1 XFP/G
20.3 FPG
94.2 YPG
1.6 MTF/GIf over the full season, those numbers would rank:
2nd-best
best
6th-best
4th-best
3rd-best
7th-best
6th-best
2nd-bestā Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB)
9:24 PM ā¢ Dec 6, 2022
TIGHT END
Dumpster Fire
The TE position is so bad this week that Noah Fant was TE#2 on only 4 catches for 42 yards and a TD. He has gone over 50 yards receiving once this year but still might be worth grabbing. We're all down bad.
Pat Freiermuth is 2nd among TEs in games with 70+ receiving yards (5) but his lack of TDs (1) limit him from being on the same tier as TJ Hockenson.
With Courtland Sutton injured (hamstring) and Jerry Jeudy (ankle) still making his way back to full strength, Greg Dulcich demonstrated the ability to dominate looks with a 35% target share in Week 13, per Dwain McFarland.
PFF credited George Kittle with just three pass-blocks Sunday. Kittle ran 42 routes on 45 QB dropbacks. But somehow only three targets for a 7% share, per @AdamLevitan.
Deep Dives
The idea is you pick up a player the week before everyone wants to grab them off the waiver wire. This column wins leagues like no other. Last week, the perfect pickup was Zonovan Knight. This week's players, available in almost every league, worth grabbing:
Trent Sherfield (2%): A week after being featured here, Sherfield showed off his big-play ability by bringing his only catch to the house for 75 yards. He has two TDs in his past three games, and if Jaylen Waddle is limited (leg), Sherfield would have an even higher upside.
Chigoziem Okonkwo (1%) led the Titans in receiving last week with 4 catches for 68 yards. He has seen at least a 20% target share in 3 of his last 6 games. A breakout game could be around the corner.
Also, more people should be talking about Rashid Shaheed. He led the Saints in receiving (4 for 75 yards) and now has 5 offensive plays of 30+ yards as a rookie on 15 touches. His snap share has increased weekly and he is quietly approaching a 2.5 YPRR on 100 rookie routes, an elite mark for a rookie WR. Trending up.
Rashid Shaheed's 9 catches in 2022:
53 yards
40 yards
35 yards
30 yards
18 yards
12 yards
8 yards
7 yards
1 yard22.7 yards per catch
ā Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball)
1:47 AM ā¢ Dec 6, 2022
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QUICK SLANTS
Darren Waller is expected to make his return in Week 15 against the Patriots. He hasn't played since Week 4 and can't be trusted. It's a trap!?
Baker Mayfield has been claimed off waivers by the LA Rams and has a chance to play as early as Thursday against the Raiders. Please don't start him.
Bronco's HC Nathaniel Hackett said the team is using TE Greg Dulcich in a WR role and has credited that in the offense being more efficient. Their offense still sucks but continue to start Dulcich.
PFF Layoffs Comes Amid Strategy Shift, Internal Unrest - excellent insight into the football giant's recent layoffs.
Thanks for joining us this morning - see you Sunday!!
Jake Eddie, Matt
Tweet of the Day
AJ Brown seeing the Titans fire Jon Robinson
ā Pickswise (@Pickswise)
5:12 PM ā¢ Dec 6, 2022
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