- Morning Huddle
- Posts
- 🏈 Five Weeks Later
🏈 Five Weeks Later
Kenny "He can't be worse than Trubisky" Pickett and other waiver wire pickups for Week 5
Good morning. First, the bad news: I lost in my home league. We also lost Javonte Williams (ACL and LCL tear, out for year) and Cordarelle Patterson (procedure, on IR for at least 4 weeks). Yikes.
Good news (for Dominik): since The Athletic agreed to sponsor the newsletter, we decided to give away an NFL jersey to one of you. The lucky winner (Dominik something) is playing hard to get and hasn't responded to our email... so we might give it to someone else who’s shared the newsletter…
With injuries devastating an already-depleted RB group, zero-RB drafters (those who started their drafts Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown) are smiling. And winning.
Zero-RB drafters in 2022.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland)
12:59 PM • Oct 2, 2022
Today's newsletter covers the best waiver adds of the week, curates content you need to read to believe, and shows you just how bad Baker Mayfield is.
MARKET
It's a good day when the Morning Huddle favourites go off.
📈 Dameon Pierce currently has more rushing yards (313) than Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott , Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon.
📈 Breece Hall took command of the Jets' backfield.
For a recap of all things Week 4, check out Patrick Daugherty's recap article.
WAIVERS
RUNNER: Brian Robinson
Officially cleared after his carjacking incident, Robinson was activated this week. With Antonio Gibson struggling as a runner (2.9 YPC last three weeks), Robinson could seize control of the Commanders' backfield. And don't forget, Robinson was in line to be the team's starting RB before his injury.
If you need another reason to sell Antonio Gibson, his snap share has declined every week. Just 41% in Week 4.
A close second is Tyler Allgeier. The rookie RB led the backfield with a 44% snap share against the Browns, turning his playing time into 10/84 rushing and 1/20 receiving. You're potentially getting an RB1 until Week 9. Only concern is competition, with Damien Williams returning in W6 and Caleb Huntley scoring a TD last week. Whispers quietly: **Caleb Huntley could conceivably see just as much work as Allgeier**
Isiah Pacheco finally had extended time to make a real impact — and he delivered. 7 of his 11 carries gained at least 6 yards. He might also have carved out a small role as the hammer RB in KC.
Mike Boone: Melvin Gordon can't hold onto anything and Boone is the RB2 in Denver. Boone’s in the mix for 10+ touches, with 20-touch upside if he wins the RB1 role. Still, the Broncos love committees. See below.
Latavius Murray: Broncos signed Murray off the Saints' practice squad after losing Williams. This should be a depth add for them, but might not be. Maybe just avoid the Broncos backfield entirely...
Rachaad White: White caught all five of his targets from Tom Brady for 50 yards. While the Bucs got White going last night in a trailing game script, the fact that they feel comfortable with White on all downs and situations is very, very, very positive.
Top 12 Fantasy Football RBs in PPR:
21.4 Nick Chubb
21.0 Saquon Barkley
19.5 Austin Ekeler
18.9 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
18.0 Christian McCaffrey
17.9 Jamaal Williams
16.9 D'Andre Swift
16.6 Josh Jacobs
16.5 Derrick Henry
16.3 Miles Sanders
16.2 Aaron Jones
14.8 James Robinson— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland)
12:33 PM • Oct 3, 2022
RECEIVER: George Pickens
George Pickens is a star in the making. He shouldn't be available in your league, so it feels crazy writing this. But if he is, Pickens is the #1 add this week. 80% of FAAB. IDC. Per Adam Levitan, Pickens saw just 12.9% of Trubisky's targets. When Kenny Pickett took over, Pickens saw 35.7% of targets (in one half). A 35.7% target share would put Pickens second in the entire NFL.
Better news: Pickett avg'ed 13.2 depth of target, pushing FAR more aggressively than Trubisky. Pickens led Pittsburgh with 6/102 receiving and can be started with confidence with Pickett able to throw the ball downfield.
Zay Jones might be listed here every week. Jones erupted for 10/85/1 receiving on 11 targets (28.2%) in Week 3 and should return against the Texans in Week 5.
Josh Reynolds has 12+ FP in three straight games and is a top WR on an injury-depleted but high-scoring fantasy team.
Skyy Moore: He saw 28% of snaps in W4, the best of his career. With an "average-at-best" WR room in KC, the Skyy is the limit for Moore to emerge as the top WR in KC (forgive the pun).
Will Dissley quietly has 12+ FP in three of his first four games and is a sneaky add at TE.
Bills WR Khalil Shakir is worth a look, per MB's Fantasy Life: "Shakir sports 4.43 speed and posted at least a 35% dominator rating or better in his last two seasons at Boise State. This offense is too high-powered to ignore stashing a prospect like Shakir." He'll be a deep dive tomorrow.
And this chart by @CoopsFB is helpful for making any deals:
xfp/game vs age:
-i can't advocate buying hollywood enough
-whoever is cheapest of diggs/adams/hill is the contender buy
-lockett, thielen, cooks all solid buys on contenders— Cooper Adams (@CoopsFB)
11:11 PM • Oct 3, 2022
PASSER: Kenny Pickett
Kenny Pickett took over at halftime when coach Mike Tomlin said "we needed a spark." Pickett went 10/13 for 120 yards with 2 rushing TDs. We highlighted Pickett last week for this exact reason. Pickett officially had 3 INTs in his NFL debut, but PFF charted him with *ZERO* turnover-worthy plays - none were his fault.
Despite a brutal upcoming slate of games (@Buf, TB, @Mia, @Phi), Pickett is a QB2 with a talented WR group and looked sharp in his debut. Add wherever you need a QB.
You know when you know. You know instantly when you see it. Kenny Pickett has IT. He will have a tough year, probably throw 13-14 picks but kid is insanely accurate and very athletic. The Steelers are a bad team and will have a bad record but they have the guy to win 7th SB.
— Ryan Burr (@RyanBurr)
8:43 PM • Oct 2, 2022
The case for Zach Wilson: Young, a massive arm, has a loaded cast of receivers and went nuclear in the Jets 4th comeback W against the Steelers. Could be a turning point for his career.
Fantasy Points's waiver article can be found here, Fantasy Pro's article here, and a photo of Nick Chubb from highschool, here.
QUICK SLANTS
Baker "unbothered by boo's" Mayfield has the lowest QB Rating in the NFL at 15.4. The last quarterback to post a QBR under 30 was Josh Rosen in 2018, and Baker's nearly 10 points worse than that so far this year.
Brian Robinson might play Sunday, about 5 weeks since he was shot. HC Ron Rivera said if everything goes fine, there’s a good chance Robinson plays.
Debate: How long before we stop viewing Clyde Edwards-Helaire as a “sell high” and instead view him as a legit RB piece for any team?
ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that tests on RB Jonathan Taylor's ankle came back negative, giving him a chance to play in Week 5 against the Broncos.
Former Ravens CB Jimmy Smith announced his retirement after 11 years in the league. Smith was drafted in the first round of the 2011 draft by the Ravens and spent his entire career with Baltimore. I'll have his rookie card in a binder somewhere.
Quick reminder to start anyone facing the Detroit Lions. The Lions and their opponents have now combined for 281 points through the first four games of the season. That’s the most ever in NFL history. Detroit leads the league in points scored at 35.0 per game and points allowed (35.3).
Another reminder: The Athletic thinks our content is worth supporting, and we can't stop reading theirs. You can improve your fantasy team and support the Morning Huddle by checking out The Athletic's offer. It's a win-win-win.
Jake, Eddie, Matt
Tweet of the Day
Found this picture of me drafting Kyle Pitts
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros)
5:30 PM • Oct 3, 2022
Reply