🏈 Hey, You Ok?

Checking in after a rough Thursday night game. Buys & sells too.

Good morning. Congratulations to everyone who didn't watch the game last night. You did good. For the rest of us, these tweets hit close to home:

Even Red Zone's Scott Hanson got into the fun:

But hey, at least you listened to us and picked up/started Alec Pierce!

Today's newsletter features a Khalil Herbert spotlight, buys & sells, and a quick slant. We're still recovering from the game.

MARKET

πŸ“ˆ Brian Robinson Jr.'s stock is only going up. Robinson practiced again on Thursday and HC Ron Rivera said that seeing how Robinson's body reacted to one day of practice would be key to moving forward with his rehab. Then Robinson was spotted bursting up the middle on a handoff and ran right by Rivera. Rivera stopped the RB to give him a fist bump and was reportedly smiling "almost like, 'wow, this guy looks good." - @PeteHaileyNBCS

PROFILE

Spotlight: Khalil Herbert

Khalil Herbert has never been a highly coveted football prospect. Coming out of American Heritage High School in Fort Lauderdale, FL, Hebert didn't receive many DI scholarship offers. He went to the University of Kansas, where he started as a true freshman. 

During his four years at Kansas, Herbert averaged just 463 scrimmage yards per season. After his senior year, he joined Virginia Tech as a graduate transfer and had a breakout season. At VT in 2020, Herbert ran for 1,183 yards and 8 touchdowns on just 155 carries. Quick math: that's 7.6 yards per carry... Herbert also broke the school record for all-purpose yards in a game (358).

Looking to bolster their RB depth after injuries to Tarik Cohen, the Chicago Bears selected Herbert in the 6th round of the 2021 NFL Draft. He has impressed since.

  • Year 1: As a rookie, Herbert ran for 433 yards and 2 touchdowns on 103 carries (4.2 YPC) serving as a backup to David Montgomery. In 4 games Montgomery missed, Herbert averaged over 86 yards per game, with his best performance coming against the Packers (19-97-1).

With a new coaching staff this season, Herbert is off to a solid start. He is seeing more carries in games where Montgomery is active and has filled in while Montgomery sits. The big difference: Herbert is much more efficient this season. Through four games, Herbert is averaging 6.1 yards per carry, which ranks 2nd in the NFL (behind Aaron Jones with 6.8)

With his 20-157-2 breakout game during Week 3 against the Texans, Herbert has shown that he can be a feature back in the NFL and could continue to carve out a role for himself even when Montgomery returns. He is still only 24 years old and plays on a team that leads the league in rushing play percentage... by a lot. Buying.

BUY & SELL

The case for...

Still Curtain

Najee Harris: I know... Najee has been disappointing. But here's a guy with first round ADP at a much cheaper price tag. Adam Koffler points out in this article that Najee is no longer leading the NFL in snap share and opportunity share (like he was as a rookie), but we forget that Najee is still in the top-7 in both stats, with a 71.2% snap share and 79.3% opportunity share. This offense is bound to get better with Kenny Pickett under center. And if you're curious about his trade value see below:

Sell

Rashaad Penny: "Outside of last week's 28.7-point eruption, Penny had fewer than nine fantasy points in each of his first three games. With Penny, we need a couple of things to go right each and every game. The Seahawks need to play sub-par run defense, [Kenneth] Walker needs to not be very good, and Penny needs to score at least one touchdown" - Adam Koffler. Still, we kinda like Penny...

Check out the rest of Adam's Fantasy Football Running Back Trade Targets - Buy/Sell for Week 5 article here.

QUICK SLANTS

  • Von Miller went on Richard Sherman's podcast and said, "let's be real man, Odell's coming to the Bills." OBJ and Von Miller have been teasing this for months, but it may make more sense after the Bills lost Jamison Crowder to a broken ankle (video).

  • The Lions will likely be without RB D'Andre Swift (shoulder) for this week's game against the Patriots. The plan is still for him to return after the bye (Week 7), barring unforeseen development - @JFowlerESPN

  • David Montgomery was fully participating at the media portion of practice on Thursday. "He caught a couple of passes and looked to be at full speed" per @johndietzdh. It was officially logged as a "limited" practice.

  • Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas are "expected" to be ruled out this Sunday vs. the Seattle Seahawks - @AroundTheDome

  • MUST READ CONTENT: Week 5 Start/Sit by @ScottBarrettDGB and Week 5 DFS Study Hall by @JakeTribbey. Both on Fantasy Points, both completely free. Both are high on Tampa's passing game this week.

Thanks for joining us this morning. Now go make your best/worst trade offer for Najee. 

Jake, Eddie & Matt

Tweet of the Day

Live footage of Arthur Smith conspiring against Kyle Pitts & everyone who drafted him:

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