Good morning. We're now ten weeks into the NFL season - it’s officially time for me to give up on Darren Waller.

We've got an early start this week, with the NFL's first regular season game in Germany between the Seahawks and Buccaneers. Speaking of the Bucs, anyone who thought Tom Brady would retire soon may want to rethink that (if this is true).

BUY & SELL

Buying Amon-Ra St Brown, who had a monster start to the season but came down to earth. St Brown has seen an elite 30%+ target share in 3/4 full games he's played and now T.J. Hockenson is on the Vikings. Last year (after Hockenson was injured), Amon-Ra went nuclear and finished as WR2 overall from weeks 13-18.

Considering JuJu. Over the past four weeks, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s 22.2 PPR points per game rank No 2 among NFL wide receivers.

Starting Rachaad White, with reports that "the Buccaneers could lean on White more as the season approaches the end, and it could start this week. While the Seahawks defense against receivers is better than assumed, they are highly susceptible to pass-catching running backs", per The Athletic's Week 10 Rankings. White saw a season high 11 touches last week and is averaging 1 full YPC higher than Fournette.

Reminder:

Holding Diontae Johnson for this week, then selling. Johnson has struggled this year, with only one double digit game. He is 41st in FPPG despite ranking 11th in expected FPPG making him the most underperforming WR in the NFL. He has potential for a big game this week as he leads the team in targets, making it a perfect sell-high opportunity.

Elijah Mitchell was activated off IR this week and will play. His role is up in the air given Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel's return from his hamstring injury.

Starting Evan Engram. Engram is coming off a quiet performance but averaged 7.3 targets over his previous four games. He gets a KC defense this week that’s allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Opponents also have the third-highest pass rate when facing the Chiefs, so Engram should be busy Sunday.

Kyler Murray's hamstring: This Is Fine. "If you're holding on to hope of Kyler Murray playing this week in spite of warnings about him not being able to run, I get it. Nothing that we've heard come out of this sounds encouraging for Murray's upside cases. The idea of "getting him to game day" is rough, and I think the Cardinals may have already thrown in the towel on this week if they weren't desperate to win games." If you have another option, don't force Murray this week.

Buying James Robinson: Last week Robinson led the Jets in carries, caught one more ball than Michael Carter, and scored a TD. This looks to be a 50/50 split, with Ty Johnson a non-factor. Robinson has made a career by proving doubters wrong. He is a sneaky buy-low weekly flex play.

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Best Reads of the Day

Continue to play Jamaal Williams. Chicago is giving up 4th most points to RB's and have allowed the most rushing TD's per game. Williams has also seen 2nd most touches inside the 10 yard line and there have been no reports of Lions increasing Swift's usage.

"Expect a bounce-back week for Bears WR Chase Claypool vs. Detroit Lions. Claypool only played 35% of the snaps in his first game with his new team but saw 21% of the target share (6 targets). Justin Fields has progressed as of late and Detroit ranks dead last in passing yards and points allowed.

Fire up Tony Pollard Again. There is still a chance that Zeke plays - but is a true game-time decision. If Zeke plays, it should be in a limited fashion with Pollard seeing majority of the work in the backfield. Mike McCarthy seems to believe Pollard can be a RB1 and handle a heavy workload.

The Brian Robinson hype appears to be over. Robinson is averaging less YPC (3.3 vs 3.7) than Antonio Gibson, and has only caught 4 passes on the season. A TD dependent play for a team that is 25th in points and 27th in TD's. He has a poor matchup in W10 vs the Eagles. Sit.

Why today may be your last chance to trade for Jonathan Taylor. In this thread, @nandodifino outlines why Jeff Saturday might actually address the Colts o-line issues and be just what Jonathan Taylor needs to revive his season.

Selling Raheem Mostert. Jeff Wilson looks more explosive and is familiar with Mike McDaniels' system. Last week, Mostert saw his lowest snap share (47%) and total touches (8) since W1. If Mostert finds the endzone or has a big game in W10, you could receive high value for a RB in a timeshare going forward.

George Pickens breakout incoming. Pickens should see increased targets coming out of the bye with Chase Claypool traded. "He gets a favorable matchup this week, too. The Saints defense has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to outside receivers (where Pickens has run 90% of his routes).

TJ Hockenson looks like a top 3 TE option for the rest of the season. In his first game with the Vikings, Hock played 91% of snaps and saw 9 targets, catching all for 70 yards. He had an immediate impact on the offence and is a top-3 option in the Vikings pass-heavy offence.

The Athletic's Michael Salfino breaks down the Market share landscape among RB's and WR's in his new Market Share report. Provides valuable information on what's happening right now and what could happen going forward.

The Titans get Ryan Tannehill back in week 10 which they desperately need after they only completed 11 total passes in the two games he missed. They also get rookie WR Treylon Burks back after missing the past 4 games.

The Bills are not elevating 3rd-string QB Matt Barkley to the active roster making it likely that Josh Allen will play through his elbow injury.

QUICK SLANTS

• In Establish The Run's Ryan Reynolds' Preparing for the Playoffs: Week 10, Ryan outlines the best QB, RB and D/ST stashes for a playoff run.

• PFF released their Week 10 Best WR/CB Matchups to Target which is an essential tool in making tough start/sit decisions.

• Dynasty Superflex Rankings - wild to see how far Jonathan Taylor has fell.

Get after those wins today - treat your opponent like Eddie treats your liver: show no mercy.

Jake, Eddie, & Matt

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