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🏈 Judging Jeudy
Prayers up for Tua... Spotlight on Jerry Jeudy. Buying Treylon but selling Gibson
Good morning. First: our thoughts and prayers go out to Tua Tagovailoa and his family. Tua suffered a horrific head injury last night, just 4 days after what looked like a bad concussion. It was difficult to watch.
The CEO of the Concussion Legacy Foundation, Dr. Chris Nowinski, tweeted this prior to kickoff:
If Tua takes the field tonight, it's a massive step back for concussion care in the NFL. If he has a 2nd concussion that destroys his season or career, everyone involved will be sued & should lose their jobs, coaches included. We all saw it, even they must know this isn't right.
Sadly, that's exactly what happened. The biggest concern is second impact syndrome, which happens when someone sustains a second concussion before the first one fully healed, damaging the brain permanently.
Last Sunday, the Dolphins team physician (in consultation with an independent neurotrauma consultant) determined Tua's gross motor instability was not neurologically caused (i.e. not a concussion) but instead a result of a back injury. A back injury???
A formal review of whether the concussion protocols were followed properly for Tua is being conducted jointly by the NFL and NFLPA, at the request of the NFLPA. Here's the concussion checklist that Tua Tagovailoa had to pass in order to return to play:
After the hit last night, Tua was taken directly to the hospital. As of publishing, the only good news is that Tua was conscious and had movement in his hands and feet. This sickening injury could be the beginning of a firestorm of controversy for the Dolphins and NFL. Hoping for the best for Tua.
Player health and safety is at the core of the union's mission. Our concern tonight is for Tua and we hope for a full and speedy recovery. Our investigation into the potential protocol violation is ongoing.
— NFLPA (@NFLPA)
3:04 AM • Sep 30, 2022
MARKET
📈 Curtis Samuel led the Commanders in targets for the third consecutive game (25%) and leads all WRs in touches (30). No WR in the entire NFL has touched the ball as much as Samuel through three weeks, per @JakeTribbey.
PROFILE
Spotlight: Jerry Jeudy
Jerry Jeudy was a highly touted prospect since high school at Deerfield Beach, where he was a 5 star recruit and 3rd highest WR in his class. He committed to Alabama and was buried on the depth chart in a crowded WR room with Calvin Ridley, Henry Ruggs III and Devonta Smith.
Jeudy broke out in his second year, leading Alabama in receptions (68), yards (1315), T-1st in TDs (14). He received first team All American and first team All SEC honors. Jeudy continued his strong play in year 3, leading many analysts to believe he was a top 3 player in the 2020 NFL draft. Drafted 15 overall to the Broncos, Jeudy's had an underwhelming career so far:
Year 1: Tied for 2nd in the NFL for most drops (12) with Drew Lock as his QB.
Year 2: Suffered a high ankle sprain in week 1 and only played 10 games on the season with 467 yards and zero TDs. 67th among 84 qualifiers in PFF's 2021 receiving grades.
Year three would be different, they said. Jeudy entered 2022 with high expectations. He had his health and a new QB in Russell Wilson. Unfortunately, injuries reared their ugly head again, forcing Jeudy out Week 2 and slowing him down in Week 3: he's only caught 3 passes for 28 yards in his last two games. The Broncos offense has also been painfully bad. Last week, Russell Wilson's uncharacteristic inaccuracy led to him missing an open Jeudy on three routes where the receiver beat his man.
Still only 23, Jeudy is a difficult player to gauge. Better real-life WR than fantasy one, at this point.
He's also not afraid to clap back to anyone on Twitter...
Jerry Jeudy was FIRED UP‼️ 😳
— Odds Shark (@OddsShark)
4:42 AM • Sep 26, 2022
BUY & SELL
The case for...
Buying Treylon Burks: The Titans rookie saw his snap share grow from 37% in Week 1 to 69% in Week 3. While it hasn't translated into production, the Titans OC said this week said they want to "get Burks more involved". Burks is an after-thought with other rookie WRs dominating, which makes him a perfect buy low. Remember, the Titans traded AJ Brown so Burks could replace him.
Selling Antonio Gibson: Gibson has scored in two of his three games and is T-2nd for most touches inside the 10. But Brian Robinson may return in Week 5. Robinson was poised to lead the Commanders backfield until his injury. Plus, J.D. McKissic still sees work on passing downs and Curtis Samuel gets several carries a game, leaving Gibson's long-term role in question.
Week 3 Commanders RBs pass game usage
- Antonio Gibson: 15 routes, targeted on 7% of them, 1 target
- J.D. McKissic: 28 routes, targeted on 32%, 9 targetsSecond week in a row. Gibson was used in passing game in Week 1 - seems he’s only used that way when WAS is playing ahead
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio)
8:37 PM • Sep 25, 2022
Selling Marquise Brown: Despite seeing 28 targets in his past two games, Rondale Moore is close to returning and DeAndre Hopkins will be back in Week 7 - Brown's role can only decrease. Brown never established himself as an elite WR in Baltimore and it's hard to imagine he will be the #1 option in a talented WR room in Arizona.
Buy Tee Higgins in dynasty. Some quick hitting thoughts on Tee Higgins dynasty evaluation as a top-5 positional asset (video).
Buying low on Austin Ekeler, now. I get it, top RBs aren't low buys - people don't sell them. The trick is that Ekeler is now even available for a trade. The Athletic's Renee Miller explains why it’s breakout time for Ekeler in this article. Hint: Ekeler has had a reasonable target share the past two games (10 and eight in Weeks 2, 3), and this week gets the Texans, the league’s best RB matchup to date.
Start Saquon?
3. Saquon Barkley has only been a favorite 9 times in his career – averaging an insane 27.4 DraftKings FPG and 23.8 Fanduel FPG in those games.
Unsurprisingly, Barkley averages 23.9 FPG in wins, but just 12.6 FPG in losses.
NYG is -3.5 in W4 with a 64% implied win probability
— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey)
6:10 PM • Sep 29, 2022
QUICK SLANTS
Despite missing practice Thursday, there is "optimism" Christian McCaffrey plays in Week 4. You'll know.
Rondale Moore was limited at practice, giving him a shot to play in his first game of the season this year.
Jake Tribbey's Week 4 DFS Study Hall (no paywall) goes in depth on every single game in Week 4, providing key stats and trends so far this season for DFS and start/sit.
Hunter Renfrow did not practice (concussion), making him unlikely to play Sunday. If you're desperate, add Mack Hollins.
Keenan Allen left practice with a trainer. Not a great sign for someone trying to return from a hamstring injury.
With David Montgomery missing practice again Thursday, all signs point to Khalil Herbert getting the start Week 4 in a favourable matchup against the Giants.
Thanks for joining us this morning. And don't forget to check out The Athletic's Fantasy Football Rankings Week 4: Sleepers, starts, sits, Russell Wilson, Elijah Moore. They make this newsletter possible & produce world-class content. We're fans.
Get after it today.
Jake, Eddie & Matt
Tweet of the Day
My wife showing off my fantasy team to all her friends
— Jeff Greenwood (@TheFantasyEng)
9:53 PM • Sep 29, 2022
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