Good morning. It’s Sunday morning of Week 3. Half your team is injured or underperforming. You’re considering switching your team name but can’t think of a good one. And when you open your fantasy app, you are greeted by a choice of Josh Kelley or Gus Edwards.

Good news to start your day: Nick Chubb is believed to have suffered only a torn MCL, per Adam Schefter, which will be surgically repaired next week. The fact that he did not dislocate his knee is fantastic news given the circumstances.

The full article noted that “while his ACL did sustain some damage, it was not fully torn. There is still a chance that Chubb must undergo full ACL reconstruction.” We will have more info after he gets MCL surgery.

If limited to an MCL tear, Chubb’s projected recovery is 6-8 months. There’s a good chance Chubb’s previous knee reconstruction in 2015 prevented further damage (repaired stronger than original), per Jesse Morse.

Rooting for him.

RANKINGS

Brock Purdy moves to QB16. Purdy became the 3rd-youngest player in NFL history to throw for 700 pass yards, 4 Pass TDs and have 0 INTs through three games. Only Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes were younger, per ESPN. But Mahomes threw for 13 TDs, 896 yards during those three games…

Kareem Hunt moves up to RB47 after returning to Cleveland. Hunt will have a role — especially near the goal line — but Jerome Ford is the RB1. Last year, Hunt had a unimpressive 5.7% explosive run rate and -0.09 EPA per rush (@CodySuek).

Najee Harris falls to RB24. While still the lead back in Pittsburgh, he’s steadily losing work to Jaylen Warren — especially in the passing game. Najee’s receptions have dropped from 74 in 2021, to 41 in 2022 (Warren had 28). Najee is now on pace for 25.5 receptions while Warren is on pace for 76.5.

Khalil Herbert drops to RB36 as Roschon Johnson ascends. While we have Herbert slightly ahead of Johnson (for now), the rookie is gaining steam. Johnson averages 5.8 yards per attempt this season, besting Herbert’s 3.9.

Zach Ertz moves up to TE14. A target hog (18 through 2 games) on a Cardinals team throwing from behind, Ertz has a low ceiling but a safe floor.

STORY

Start / Sit for Week 3

Start Gus Edwards as your flex. After Justice Hill was announced out of a Week 3 matchup with the Colts, Edwards joined “glad I stashed him” territory. The Ravens are TD favorites over the Colts and Gus Bus is expected to see the bulk of carries. His 5.2 career YPC ranks 4th in the Super Bowl era, behind only Bo Jackson (5.4), Jamaal Charles (5.4) and Nick Chubb (5.3).

While the Colts have a solid run defense, opponents have found success using power rushes. “Since the start of 2022, the Colts have allowed 4.1 (10th best) yards per rush on power rushes. The Ravens use power rushing at the second highest clip in the league. I’d start Gus over Najee Harris, Javonte Williams, and James Conner”, per Jacob Gibbs of Sportsline.

Sit Dameon Pierce against the Jaguars. “After losing 4-of-5 starting offensive linemen, Pierce just has nowhere to go. Among RBs with at least 10 carries, Pierce ranks 44/48 in yards before contact. 94.2% of Pierce’s total rushing yardage has come after contact – the fifth-highest rate in the league.

The Jaguars have continued to play good run defense, allowing just 1.62 YPC (third-fewest) on zone-blocking runs, and zone runs are the foundation of Houston’s ground game”, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.

Start Alexander Mattison. “Since the start of 2022, the Chargers have allowed a league-high 6.1 yards per rush on outside zone attempts. Only three teams have used outside zone rushing at a higher rate than the Vikings in 2023.

Here's where Alexander Mattison's first three opponents ranked in rush defense success rate on zone rushes in 2022, courtesy of the @FantasyPtsData Suite:

• Week 1 -- 7th

• Week 2 -- 10th

• Week 3 -- 32nd 👀 ”, per Jacob Gibbs.

Start Kyle Pitts against the Lions. Pitts has turned his four total catches (on four catchable passes) into 59 yards, but has seen a promising 34.1% air yards share. If there’s a get-right game, it’s the Lions, who are allowing a league-high 87.5 receiving YPG and the third-most FPG (18.8) to TEs - despite Travis Kelce missing the opener against them, per Tom Brolley of Fantasy Points.

Start Kendre Miller against the Packers. Miller has returned to a full practice this week and is set to start in his NFL debut Sunday, with Jamaal Williams (IR) and Alvin Kamara out this week. “Miller had numerous highlight-worthy plays in the preseason and… the Packers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs”, per Dalton Del Don of Yahoo!

Start Jayden Reed against the Saints. Expect Romeo Doubs to struggle against the press-heavy Saints defense. “No team uses press coverage more than the Saints (83%). Doubs career YPRR declines significantly against press coverage (0.90) compared to when he’s not pressed (1.65). We could see Jayden Reed -- one of the most-targeted players in the NFL on a per-route basis -- continue to shine in this matchup”, per Jacob Gibbs of Sportsline.

Other starts: Adam Thielen (Andy Dalton upgrade), Elijah Moore (vs TEN pass-funnel).

Other sits: Jerome Ford (see below) and James Conner (facing Cowboys with Cardinals' implied total at 15.5 points).

More questions? Send us an email with your start/sit questions and we’ll get back to you ASAP.

HOSPITAL VISIT

Kadarius Toney’s Home Tent

OUT

Austin Ekeler (ankle) was ruled out for Sunday but may miss more time: "He’s working hard to get back. We’ll see how it goes here in the next few weeks” - Chargers HC Brandon Staley. Seems like best-case scenario for Ekeler is a return Week 6 vs. DAL.

Jaylen Waddle (concussion) is out but should return in Week 4 without any impact to his performance upon return.

Zay Jones was ruled out in Week 3. Zay out means Christian Kirk gets on the field more in 2WR sets, but slides into slot again in 3WR sets. HOU gets torched in man coverage (and is missing their starting slot CB). Kirk torches man coverage and had a strong Week 2 after the Jags gave him a league leading 5 designed targets on 14 total targets against the man-heavy Chiefs.

Bryce Young has been ruled out for Sunday’s game vs. the Seahawks, and is uncertain for next Sunday’s game vs. the Vikings. Andy Dalton starts in his place.

Jamaal Williams was placed on IR and will be out next 4 games. Alvin Kamara returns next week.

CHECK-IN

Joe Burrow is expected to be out for the Rams game on Monday Night Football, his teammates believe. Big downgrade for all Bengals skill players and fans, if so. Some believe Burrow is leaning towards playing Week 3 (which comes with a 20% re-injury risk).

Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are "getting closer" to returning but both will be "close calls" for Sunday. It sounds like true game-time decisions, per ESPN's @JFowlerESPN.

DeAndre Hopkins (ankle) said he plans to travel with Titans to Cleveland but his status is TBD. Hopkins missed practice Friday with the injury. Avoid Hopkins even if he plays.

Kadarius Toney is expected to play for the Chiefs today, but shouldn’t play for your fantasy team.

PLAYING

Amon-Ra St. Brown will play with a steel plate in his cleat against Falcons. The steel plate is in place to limit excessive stress on his toe+ligaments as he runs. Don’t consider sitting him, but reinjury risk (~10-15%) is the biggest issue, per @jmthrivept.

D.K. Metcalf, listed as questionable for Sunday due to a rib injury, is expected to play vs. the Panthers, per Adam Schefter.

Isiah Pacheco, listed as questionable for Sunday due to a hamstring injury, is expected to play vs. the Bears.

Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers are both playing for the Raiders and are not expected to see any performance impact due to injury.

Check Adam Schefter’s account for updates this AM.

MARKETS

Next Week’s Jerome Ford

🏦 Tyjae Spears is a stash this week. Seriously. He must be added everywhere. Derrick Henry has turf toe (he’s ok, but still), while Spears has already carved out a role in this offense (46% of snaps and 98% of 3rd & 4th down snaps). He’s averaging an impressive 6.9 nice YPC, is RB4 in yards after contact per attempt and has the 2nd-highest elusive rating among RBs in the NFL.

🏦 De’Von Achane is a must add. Depth-chart filler Salvon Ahmed is out Week 3 (Ahmed was seeing around 30% snaps) meaning Achane has a chance show his 4.32 speed in this explosive Miami offense. Only behind Mostert, Achane could be next week’s Jerome Ford.

🚀 We’re trading for Amari Cooper right now. “Cooper ranks 11th of 88 qualified WRs in @PFF receiving grade. Career-high target per route run rate in 2022. He's in his prime. Browns offense likely unable to lean on the ground game and pass even more going forward. When on the field, Cooper has been an alpha target hog with a 33% target share and 50% air yardage share. Now he gets a Week 3 matchup vs. TEN pass-funnel defense”, per Jacob Gibbs.

👀 We’re buying low on Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco saw 63% of the Chiefs rush attempts in Week 2 and has been more involved in the pass game, seeing route rates of over 41% in both games. He’s a sophomore RB1 on one of the NFL’s best offenses and a borderline must-start against a Bears defense in shambles.

We’re holding Jerome Ford. No defense in the NFL has been better against the run over a 17-game stretch since 2007 than this Titans unit. Over their last 17 games, the Titans have allowed just 2.9 YPC to opposing RBs. Ford could be a league winner, but might be best served on your bench this week.

We’re benching Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Per Fantasy Life’s Ian Hartitz, “JSN’s average target depth of 1.8 yards ranks dead last among 97 WRs with at least five targets. His 64% route rate is far behind both DK Metcalf (82%) and Tyler Lockett (89%).”

📉 We’re selling Deshaun Watson. Watson ranks 32nd in PFF passer grade, 33rd in passer rating, 29th in adjusted completion rate and 33rd in yards per attempt. Watson has a good matchup vs the Titans’ pass-funnel defense, which could present a selling window.

QUICK SLANTS

A Better Pollard 👀 

📖 Read Regression Session Week 3 by Jonathan Fuller of Fantasy Life.

Tony Pollard is due for positive regression, despite being RB5. Pollard “has 48 touches in two games and leads the NFL with 6 carries inside the 10-yard line. For most players, two touchdowns in two games would be a great return, but in Pollard’s case it can be considered underperforming.”

Pollard’s rushing work alone projects for 3-4 TDs and his 26.1 expected points in Week 2 paced all RBs, per Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy. Massive week incoming.

📖 Read why Joe Burrow needs 'prolonged rest' and is recommended to miss at least four-weeks. @CodyJBenjamin of CBS Sports explains:

“A trip to injured reserve would help Burrow's calf fully heal, injury analyst Marty Jaramillo said, while also aid in long-term prevention of future injuries, such as an Achilles tear. Short of this, Burrow "runs the risk of playing with this all season," and not only that, but experiencing worsened effects.”

📖 Read Rest of Season Trade Value by Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points.

Keenan Allen moves to 15th overall: “Allen is the overall WR6 in FPG and the WR5 in XFP/G through the first two games. His aDOT is up a full 2.1 yards from last season. We're looking at a very steady WR1 so long as he stays healthy.”

Anthony Richardson skyrockets to 34th overall: “Richardson has averaged 31.8 FPG per four full quarters, the best among all QBs. He trails only Jalen Hurts in designed rush attempts, stole his play-caller, and has scored the exact same number of fantasy points despite playing only 62.5% as many quarters as Hurts.”

🎙️Listen to the Week 3 Sleepers episode of the Late Round Podcast by JJ Zachariason.

Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson: “He still has an 18% target share on the season and 46% of Dallas’ redzone targets have gone Jake Ferguson’s way. That’s a top-12 number in the league.”

🎙️Listen to the Week 3 Fantasy Football Preview episode of the PFF Fantasy Football Podcast.

Chargers/Vikings matchup: “This is by far the highest over/under line of the week and everyone is expecting a shootout here. We should start all fantasy options on both sides. This should be another good matchup for Kirk Cousins, the Chargers’ team coverage is third-worst in the league.”

📺️ Watch Kurt Warner break down Justin Fields’s vision 👇️ 

Creator of the Day

Adam Levitan

In this new series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away (2005), Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) of Establish The Run began his fantasy football career writing one column per week with Metro Newspapers, a free daily paper in Philly, Boston and NYC. Fast forward 18 years and he’s now one of the biggest names in fantasy football. He was kind enough to share insights into his journey with us.

After working with Rotoworld and DraftKings, Adam built a new platform (Establish The Run or ETR) with Evan Silva. The Establish The Run Podcast is free but their site is paywalled (it was the first subscription I ever paid for - highly recommend). “Focus on what helps you win, that's it.”

During draft season, Adam (thankfully) stressed avoiding the tier of Cam Akers, Dameon Pierce, Miles Sanders and JK Dobbins. He was focused on acquiring RBs like David Montgomery, James Cook, Brian Robinson and Jaylen Warren.

ETR’s Take on Week 3

Adam and Evan share their outlook on Week 3:

Rams O: The Rams love Kyren Williams and so does ETR. Kyren and Tony Pollard are the only players in the NFL with double-digit Red Zone carries through two weeks.

Eagles RBs: Swift looked impressive against the Vikings, but the Vikings defensive scheme was to play drop coverage and allow chunk yardage through the run game. Both Gainwell and Scott were injured, and backup Rashaad Penny made crucial errors. They are likely going back to a rotation, but this week will be telling.

Lions O: Look for Gibbs to earn 16-19 touches with a safer floor and higher ceiling, but Adam is slightly worried the Lions expand the role of Craig Reynolds. The offensive line is also dealing with injuries, so be cautious. Josh Reynolds should remain valuable until Jameson Williams returns. LaPorta eats targets - catching five balls in each game with some juice. The Lion’s home/road split? At home - 2.17 TDs per game. Away - 0.87. They play the Falcons at home today.

You can follow Adam on Twitter and visit EstablishTheRun.com to learn more.

Tweet of the Day

Just win, baby. Thanks for joining us, see you Tuesday.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Matt