🏈 NFL Offseason Recap

Get caught up on the fantasy implications of everything that has happened this NFL offseason

April 03, 2023

Yes, like Brian Urlacher's hair, we're back. Back finding and delivering fantasy football alpha. Back ignoring our responsibilities and families. Back in your inbox.

Welcome to our annual NFL draft special. This edition of the Morning Huddle catches you up with the offseason & fantasy implications, in five minutes. We're following this schedule until the Draft on Thursday, April 27:

  • Weekly newsletter on Monday mornings @ 6:00 AM ET covering all things NFL off-season (the draft, trades, memes, and Aaron Rodgers' meditation retreats).

Then we go back to our day jobs and you won't hear from us until August, when the real fun begins. As always, if you enjoy the newsletter and have some league-mates who love fantasy football - don’t share it with them. You don’t want them improving, and neither do we.

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Thank you to the The Athletic for sponsoring this edition of the Morning Huddle. The greatest draft guide on the planet, The Beast, drops next Monday. Stay tuned...

Quarterbacks

Former MVPs on the Move

Aaron Rodgers will be a Jet as soon as the teams agree to compensation. Per Yahoo, the Jets are expected to move two 2nd rounders: one in 2023 and one in 2024, which could graduate to a first-round pick with performance escalators. Sources point to April 17 as the next key date, when clubs open their facilities for team activities.

  • Daniel Jones got a bag from the Giants on a 4 year-$160M deal. He has QB1 upside with his running ability & acquisition of Darren Waller, but a weak WR room and Saquon Barkley still a focal point, put Jones in tier 3.

  • Derek Carr is the newest Saints QB, an upgrade for skill players named Olave and Kamara, who've had to rely on Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston.

  • Geno Smith signed an incentive-laden, three-year deal to stay in Seattle.

  • Baker Mayfield is sitting in Tom Brady's shoes after signing with the Buccaneers.

Jimmy G is headed to Las Vegas to be their QB1. If the reports can be trusted, he may be more excited about the off-field activities: Jimmy Garoppolo Offered 'Free Sex For Life' From Las Vegas Brothel Workers.

Kyle Shanahan said that "Sam Darnold will get just as many opportunities in the offseason program as Trey Lance". Not great to hear “the guy who saw ghosts” splitting time with the former No. 3 overall pick and my dynasty QB.

Lamar Jackson officially requested a trade. Jackson was unable to agree to a long-term deal with the Ravens, who franchise tagged their superstar QB. Possible destinations?

  • Lamar Jackson wants to be a Patriot, per Meek Mill. Belichick did not commit to Mac Jones as the Patriots starting QB next season.

  • Falcons coach Arthur Smith said the team "absolutely'' examined the idea of trading for Lamar Jackson, but declined, per @NFL_DovKleiman.

  • Ron Rivera suggested Lamar Jackson doesn't fit what the Commanders want to do - the Commanders will not pursue Jackson.

  • The bookies are leaning Colts

Running Back

Pollard is Finally Free

Jamaal Williams joins the New Orleans Saints on a three-year deal, where he'll take on the 1B role vacated by Mark Ingram. But with Kamara’s suspension possible, Williams has RB1 potential. Williams is a red zone monster who had more rushing TDs in 2022 than the entire Saint's offense. His introductory press conference is must watch TV.

  • The Lions replaced JWill with former Bear David Montgomery, who could see a 50-50 split with D'Andre Swift, or be the focal point himself. Now all the Lions need is Lamar.

Fantasy owners prayed for Khalil Herbert to be a workhorse RB1 when Montgomery left... until the Bears signed D'Onta Foreman. Foreman is currently drafted 22 spots behind Khalil Herbert (RB32) and could be a Thomas Jones-like figure in Chicago.

  • Ezekiel Elliott is out in Dallas, clearing $11m in cap space and leaving Tony Pollard as the clear-cut RB1. Elliott made a wish-list of teams that appear to want nothing to do with him.

  • Miles Sanders (2022 Pro Bowler) joins a Panthers team full of questions and a weak O-Line.

The NFL's most efficient and injury prone RB, Rashaad Penny, signed with the Eagles. Running with an elite offensive line, Penny has high-end RB2 upside IF healthy.

Catchers in the Rye

Quiet offseason for WRs?

If 2022 was busy, 2023 was mid for NFL WRs. The biggest headline was a DJ Moore trade to the Chicago Bears. Other headlines:

  • Allen Lazard signed with the Jets so they could convince Aaron Rodgers to move

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster signed with the Patriots

  • Adam Thielen joined the Panthers

  • Brandin Cooks joined the WR-desperate Cowboys

  • DeAndre Hopkins is still a Cardinal

  • Elijah Moore was traded to the Cleveland Browns

  • Jakobi Meyers, WR: Las Vegas Raiders

Darren Waller was traded to the NYG and instantly becomes their best receiving threat. Former Cowboy Dalton Schultz signed with the Houston Texans and Irv Smith Jr. is signing with the Bengals - Smith Jr. believes he's the missing piece to get them to a Super Bowl.

If you still want more off-season content, our friends at EstablishtheRun.com have their own NFL Free Agency Tracker listing every transaction that has occurred this off-season.

The Content

Garrett Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Dynasty Updates

The must read content this week:

The Athletic's 2023 Fantasy Football Rankings: Jalen Hurts QB1, Christian Watson Top 20 WR and more in way too early ranks by Jake Ciely.

Dynasty league football mailbag: What’s Jameson Williams’ trade value at this point?

Sky is the limit for Jameson Williams and I’d be acquiring more than selling. In this draft, in fact, I would have Williams as my top receiver, so trading him isn’t likely. His value to me is no less than the 1.03.

How good can Garrett Wilson be with Aaron Rodgers at QB? Our model says a top 5 fantasy WR assuming health, this is what my model spit out for Wilson:

  • 169 targets, 115 catches, 1,369 yards and 13 touchdowns

  • That’s between WR2 and WR4 overall the past three seasons

Fantasy Life's @dwainmcfarland published the NFL Rookie Super Model Tiers: WRs.

The Draft

What To Expect

QB: Unlike last year, where Kenny "Hand Size" Pickett was the only QB to go in the first round, this year's draft is all about the QBs. 3/4 top 4 picks are held by QB needy teams.

There are several impressive QB prospects, with CJ Stroud projected to go #1 to the Panthers. Bryce Young, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson are also projected to be top 10 picks. We'll be covering them in-depth next week.

RB: The RB position is "supposed" to be deep this year, especially with teams realizing it is better to draft an RB than pay one. However, Fantasy Points' Scott Barrett said that he would have zero exposure to any RB's not named Bijan Robinson, who looks like the only Bell Cow.

WR/TE: PFF has described 2023's WR draft class as "arguably the weakest in half a decade." That does not get the people going, but we'll give you background on the rookies over the coming weeks.

RANKINGS: The NFL Draft 2023 Big Board: The Athletic’s updated top 100 prospect rankings is now live. Included in each player card is a prospect profile written by one of The Athletic’s NFL draft analysts, a key stat highlighting a notable player strength, the prospect’s pre-draft measurements as well as how those measurements compare to players drafted at their position since 2010. Click here to see how high Anthony Richardson ranks.

Other draft material we are reading:

QUICK SLANTS

  • Calvin Ridley published A Letter to the Game where he explained his life since his suspension. "All I want is for people to understand that, when I made those bets, there was a hell of a lot more going on with me".

  • NFL released their NFL Player Report Card that was done last off-season where over 1300 players graded their teams on several categories. Unsurprisingly, Commanders were dead last overall with an F- for treatment of families.

  • The “Push Play” that Jalen Hurts made famous went unchallenged by the Competition Committee. Will remain legal in 2023, no rule change, per Adam Levitan.

  • There are rumours Dalvin Cook gets cut. He's 28 and carries a significant injury risk.

Tweet of the Day

We missed you guys. Thanks for joining us this morning, we'll see you next Monday (when The Athletic's The Beast drops).

Jake, Eddie, Matt

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