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🏈 Olave Garden
Positional Updates and your 2022 QB1: Jared Goff
Good morning. Some good news to start your day: Bengals QB Joe Burrow announced the launch of The Joe Burrow Foundation, a nonprofit foundation to help meet the needs of underprivileged and underserved families in Ohio and Louisiana who are working to overcome food insecurity and childhood mental health issues. Love to see it.
You can learn more & donate here.
And yes, Tom Brady and Gisele Bundchen unfortunately (and reportedly) hired divorce lawyers. We wish their family the best and hope Tom and Giselle work things out.
But this morning, call us Tom Brady. We've chosen football.
Today's newsletter features a position by position review, top content around the world & some epic tweets.
QUARTERBACKS
Unlikely Heroes
Jared Goff is the QB5 on the season, just as expected. With elite numbers, Goff is tied for 1st in passing TDs (11) and 3rd in passing yards (1,126). Goff was the overall QB1 this week, despite missing his WR1 (St-Brown) & WR2 (Chark). With the league's #1 scoring offense and worst defense, Lions + Goff = a recipe for fantasy glory.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals appear to be turning a corner. Burrow has a 5:0 TD:INT ratio with 562 passing yards in his past two games. The best breakdown of the Bengals improvement can be found here (video), by Cincy Bengals Talk.
Dak Prescott owners will have to wait at least another week for his return as he has already been ruled out for week 5. Undefeated Cooper Rush will start again week 5 against the Rams.
Through four games, Geno Smith has more passing yards than Russell Wilson, a 6:2 TD:INT ratio and is QB10. Geno is completing 77% of his passes, the highest completion percentage through 4 games in NFL history! With the Seahawks defense struggling almost as much as the Lions, Geno can continue to be relied on. Here's more on Geno's impressive start:
how is Geno Smith different than Russell Wilson?
rate of early down att thrown in-rhythm:
Geno: #6 best
Russ: #33 of 42 last yr in this offenseattempting passes despite pressure:
Geno: #1 best
Russ: NFL avgmore on Geno's great start for @NFLonFOX:
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball)
6:51 PM • Oct 4, 2022
RUNNING BACKS
Trust in Jacobs
After dominating the Broncos for 34+ points, Josh Jacobs is 4th in the league in scrimmage yards (426) and HC Josh McDaniels called him "one of the best runners" he's "ever been around".
Jacobs also had the 2nd highest snap rate of any RB in week 4. Per Dwain McFarland's Utilization Report: "If [Josh Jacobs'] utilization holds, he will join elite names like Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey."
The buy-low window on Austin Ekeler closed after his 109 scrimmage yard, 3 TD performance last week. On the season he is 1st in RB targets (29), 1st in RB receptions (27), and 1st in YAC (235). Glad you bought him last week.
Rashaad Penny finally broke out with 2 TDs on 151 rushing yards in Week 4 and now my buy low window is closed. Penny is 1st in rushing yards over expected per rush on the season, an important stat the tells you how well the RB has performed. Unfortunately, he won't play the Lions again.
Damien Harris has a TD in 3 of his last 4 games and leads the NFL in rushing TDs since Week 11 of 2021. With the Patriots relying on the run until Mac Jones returns, Harris should continue to be productive. Plus he faces the Lions in Week 5.
Travis Etienne out-snapped James Robinson for the first time since Week 1, but still only had 8 rushes for 32 yards. Ouch. Are we delusional, or is Week 5 against the Houston Texans league worst rushing defense THE WEEK?
I'm not giving up on Travis Etienne in 2022. In fact, I'm all in on him in Week 5.
-HOU giving up most rushing yards and 2nd most fantasy points to RBs
-Snap% increase 2 straight weeks
-JRob Snap% decrease 2 straight weeks
-Higher Yards per Touch than JRob— Fantasy Tycoon (@FF_Tycoon)
7:53 AM • Oct 4, 2022
WIDE RECEIVERS
Lovin Olave
Even with Andy Dalton, Chris Olave was productive. 4 catches for 67 yards and a TD. His 335 receiving yards on the season is 1st among rookies and 8th in the entire NFL. He continues to dominate the league in air yards (673) which is more impressive when 2nd is Tyreek Hill (only 453). Buy from managers who don't realize what they have.
Over the last 2 weeks, Romeo Doubs has quietly led the Packers in targets (16), routes run (63) and first read target share (29.5%). Buy buy buy.
Through Week 4, Gabe Davis only has 14 targets on 149 routes run, 2nd lowest TPRR % in the league. Sell to someone who watched Week 1.
It was only a matter of time before Deebo Samuel went off. He now leads all WR's in YAC (200) and had some words on Jalen Ramsey trying to tackle him in the open field: “Yeah I don’t know what he was doing out there. I went right by him. He was just backpedaling, I was like ‘what is going on?’” (video).
Cooper Kupp's numbers look pretty similar through 4 games as they did last year when he went won the Triple Crown. We just expected it this time:
Cooper Kupp through 4 weeks: 🤯
2021:
- 30 catches
- 431 yards
- 5 TDs
- 102.6 PPR Points2022:
- 42 catches
- 402 yards
- 3 TDs
- 106.2 PPR Points— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy)
9:15 PM • Oct 4, 2022
TIGHT END
TJ Hulkenson
George Kittle's lack of involvement continues to break my heart. Under-utilized in the 49ers offense, Kittle only had 2 catches for 24 yards. The main problem is that HC Kyle Shanahan plays him like a left tackle. The Manningcast should have Kittle on as a guest during passing downs.
Darren Waller is TE3 in air yards (273), he's just not converting. TE2, with 346 air yards? Kyle Pitts, our #1 buy of the week. Here's a thread on buying Pitts in dynasty, and why Kyle Pitts will be just fine (thread).
After a slow start to the season, TJ Hockenson exploded for 39+ fantasy points in Week 4. He had more yards (179) than Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, and Darren Waller combined. But maybe Hockenson's breakout is a sign to buy Kyle Pitts?
Kyle Pitts last year
Week 1-4: TE20
Week 5-17: TE4Kyle Pitts this year
Week 1-4: TE22
Week 5-17: ???Still *extremely* early and we just saw a worse player in TJ Hockenson jump from TE15 to TE3 in one week. Don’t give up on Pitts
— Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon)
4:35 PM • Oct 4, 2022
CONTENT
Y'all got any more of that content?
Quality reads/listens for your fantasy fix.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Usage Report: FantasyPros
Week 4 Recap: Injuries, RB Snaps, Team Notes - @PatMayo
Week 5 Waiver Wire + Players to Drop - @KyleYates
Week 4 fantasy risers and fallers: Miles Sanders is a RB1, Darren Waller busts again and more. The Athletic's @MichaelSalfino outlines everything he saw in Week 4. If you're not yet subscribing to The Athletic, you can today for just $1. Just consider the upside of winning your league & proving you're better than your friends.
QUICK SLANTS
The Chargers are still listing Keenan Allen as day-to-day, saying they're going to "be careful." Doesn't sound optimistic for Week 5.
Broncos OC said that Melvin Gordon will "carry the load" against the Colts this week. This could be short-lived if he doesn't stop fumbling.
“I definitely do plan to play but if you can’t go you can’t go" - Jonathan Taylor. Colts are still hoping Taylor plays Thursday against a tough Broncos D. You'll have to start him if he plays, but have backup options.
Gus Edwards will return to practice this week after being activated off the PUP list. He's a Week 8-18 type of player this year.
Giants are working out various QB's due to Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor both being injured. Remember, the only Giant worth starting is the one with massive quads.
If you're up for a great read, Adam Harstad recommended this excellent piece in the Atlantic on Andy Reid studying the tape of what has been known as the greatest game in football history (Colts-Giants).
Thanks for joining us this morning - see you tomorrow.
Jake, Eddie, Matt
Tweet of the Day
Please watch this video.
Dad really tried to scramble
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports)
2:14 PM • Oct 3, 2022
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