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- 🏈 Caleb Williams, then who?
🏈 Caleb Williams, then who?
Previewing the QB and RB prospects you need to know
Good morning. Hope you enjoyed the Masters, which they call a tradition unlike any other. Meanwhile, I spent the weekend doing an egregious amount of fantasy football mock drafts… a tradition unlike any other.
Today's newsletter highlights:
⭐️ This year’s star-studded QB class
😕 A very mid RB class
📰 Jake Ceily’s Top 80
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The best tradition of all? Reading The Beast by The Athletic’s Dane Brugler. My Draft Bible, it has everything you need to sound like an expert at the water cooler:
Over 400 scouting reports
NFL-verified testing for almost 2,000 prospects
Anecdotes you can’t get anywhere else — like J.J. McCarthy telling fellow recruits if they “wanted to party and chase girls, go somewhere else” (nerd!!)
And it’s all available at The Athletic.
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PROSPECT PREVIEW
That’s my quarterback
The next Mahomes? // Kirby Lee, USA TODAY Sports
1. Caleb Williams, USC
Draft Projection: 1st to Chicago.
NFL Comp: You don’t want to compare anyone to Patrick Mahomes… but Caleb comes close.
Pros: A generational prospect, Williams is a big play waiting to happen — He accounted for more plays of 20+ yards (134) and 50+ yards (20) than any other college player over the last two seasons, per Brugler’s The Beast.
With college football’s highest PFF grade when moving beyond his first read (90.6), Williams has the escapability and arm strength to make highlight-reel throws from anywhere on the field.
Cons: Williams has the tendency to play “hero-ball” too often — passing up easy completions in favor of trying to make the big play. He also led college football in fumbles (33) over the last three seasons and has the highest self-allowed pressure rate (29%) of any college QB in the last decade, per Football Insights.
2. Drake Maye, UNC
Draft Projection: New England at 3.
NFL Comp: Value-Mart Justin Herbert
Pros: Maye has prototypical size (6’4” 223 lbs), a big arm (the most “big time throws” in college football, per @JoshTaylorFB), and is a great athlete (1,147 rushing yards and 16 TDs over the last two seasons).
He might also be the safest QB in the draft… Per PFF’s Draft Guide, Drake Maye’s “stable metrics” (grades on the most stable facets of QB play — which tend to be more predictive of future success) are elite:
No pressure grade: 99th percentile
Early-down grade: 96th
No play-action grade: 100th
Negative play % grade: 91st
Passes past the sticks grade: 100th
Cons: Similar to Caleb Williams, Maye will try to do too much — taking unnecessary sacks and forcing throws downfield. His accuracy is also inconsistent at times, as his 75.1% adjusted completion percentage ranked only 25th best in college football, per PFF.
3. Jayden Daniels, LSU
Draft Projection: Washington at 2.
NFL Comp: Robert Griffin III, before ESPN
Pros: The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner could make an immediate fantasy impact thanks to his rushing ability (over 3,000 career rushing yards and 30+ TDs).
But he’s more than just a runner — in his last season at LSU, Daniels led college football with a 99.2 passing grade and a 69.1% adjusted completion percentage on 20+ yard throws, per PFF.
Cons: Daniels takes too many sacks — per PFF, his pressure-to-sack rate was 30.8% in 2022 and then 20.2% in 2023 (NFL starters are usually 10-15%).
And due to his thin frame and unwillingness to slide, like his comp RGIII, durability is a concern (dynasty drafters be warned):
You have to be a little worried about Jayden Daniels health in the NFL.
— Boston Cream 🍩 (@itsbostoncream)
4:53 PM • Apr 10, 2024
4. J.J. McCarthy Michigan
Draft Projection: Vikings trade up to 4.
NFL Comp: A talented Kirk Cousins.
Pros: As the starting QB for the National Champion Michigan Wolverines, McCarthy is a true leader. But he’s not a modern-day Tim Tebow… McCarthy can sling it. His 80.0% adjusted completion percentage and 71.2% completion rate when under pressure are both second-highest in his class (per FantasyLife’s Ian Hartitz).
And he’s “sneaky-athletic” (especially given his comp to Kirk Cousins)… frequently extending plays with his legs and clocking a sub-4.5 40 yard dash at Michigan’s Pro Day.
Cons: At just 21 years old and averaging just 321 pass attempts in his last two seasons, McCarthy’s a mystery box. He also did most of his damage on short to intermediate throws over the middle of field (per @RaptorsHarris), only showing his big arm in flashes.
5. Michael Penix, Jr. Washington
Draft Projection: 1st/2nd Round
NFL Comp: Geno Smith after 10 seasons
Pros: A downfield pocket passer, Penix is known for his impressive accuracy and big arm. He also takes care of the ball, totalling just 20 turnover-worthy plays on 1,114 pass attempts, per PFF.
While he doesn’t run much, Penix showed out at his Pro Day, running a 4.53 40-yard-dash and jumping 36 1/2" high. If he taps into that athleticism, he could add another dimension to his game.
Cons: The biggest knocks on Penix have been his injury history, inconsistency in both mechanics and performance, and his age: he’ll be a 24 year old rookie (that’s not quite Brandon Weeden old, but still…).
6. Bo Nix Oregon
Draft Projection: 1st/2nd Round
NFL Comp: Alex Smith after the disappointment wore off
Pros: During the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Nix and his Oregon Ducks led all Power 5 schools in offensive TDs (146), yards per play (7.4), and EPA per play (+0.3), per FantasyLife’s Ian Hartitz. Nix is a well-rounded and productive player, scoring more total TDs (94) than any other Power 5 QB.
Cons: Nix is also an older prospect (24) and his success is largely attributed to Oregon’s QB-friendly scheme:
His 6.8 average depth of target in 2023 ranked 122nd out of 125 passers with 200+ dropbacks, and he threw deep on just 10.9 percent of his throws last year (122nd out of 135 passers), per The Ringer’s Danny Kelly.
Best of the Rest
Spencer Rattler (South Carolina) has all the talent in the world, but never reached his full potential in college. I hope he’s matured since high school.
Joe Milton III (Tennessee) was built in a lab… he’s 6’5” 246 lbs with a bazooka arm (tied Josh Allen’s record of a 62 MPH throw) and isn’t afraid to show it.
Sam Hartman (Notre Dame) isn’t a very exciting prospect, but he’s my wife’s favorite player…
Running Back
Jonathon Brooks // texassports.com
1. Jonathon Brooks Texas
Draft Projection: 2nd/3rd Round
NFL Comp: “Smallmondre” Stevenson (s/o The Ringer’s Danny Kelly)
Pros: After sitting for two years behind Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson, Brooks was putting together an All-American level season before tearing his ACL in November.
He’s an elusive runner (63 missed tackles forced in 2023, per PFF, tied for 11th among all RBs) and has excellent contact balance (732 of his 1,135 rushing yards in 2023 came after contact, per @NFL_DougFarrar). He also profiles as an every down back with his sticky hands and pass blocking chops.
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