Good morning. One word to describe this NFL season? Unbelievable. Three mind-blowing stats:

• Raheem Mostert has the most touchdowns through six games (11) since Shaun Alexander (12) won MVP.

• I haven’t won a game in my 16-team league this season despite drafting what two leaguemates called a “pretty good” team.

• The Browns are the first team in NFL history to defeat Brock Purdy in a regular season game that he started. They allowed just 1,002 total yards in five games, the fewest since 1971. The Cleveland Browns might be… good?

Good news to start your day: Damien Harris (neck) was released from the hospital and “is going to be fine” long term after suffering a scary head injury on Sunday night.

MARKET CHECK

RANKINGS

Adam Thielen rises to WR25. Everyone expects him to fall back to Earth, but the 33-year-old doesn’t quit. Since a forgettable Week 1, he’s averaging 11.4 targets, 9.4 receptions, 99 yards and almost 1 TD per game. He’s the WR3 overall and the WR6 in PPG. Only risk is the Panthers adding a “true WR1” as they’ve said they will.

Jahan Dotson falls to WR47. Despite playing 80% of the snaps, Dotson only saw one target. While he and Curtis Samuel both have 31 targets, Samuel has twice as many FP (75.5 compared to Dotson’s 37) and is the WR2 to own in Washington.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

WAIVER WIRE ADDS

Week 7 RBs

Our top adds prior to Week 7, ranked in order of preference by position. Unsure how much FAAB to spend? Follow this thread on reddit.

Chuba Hubbard has been listed here for weeks. Hubbard put together the best rushing performance by a Carolina Panthers running back this season and could be the long-term starter.

Jeff Wilson Jr. and Roschon Johnson were picked up everywhere last week, but just check. You never know.

Zach Evans. Thankfully, our Week 6 waivers got you a week ahead - as Zach Evans had “the highest ceiling of any longshot running back” and recommended him as an add. Both Rams RBs Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers are expected to miss Week 7. ESPN’s Sarah Barshop believes Zach Evans is “likely” to be the Rams starting running back in Week 7.

Elijah Mitchell was the primary back in SF in 2021 and earned 17+ touches in 11 games. His straight line speed is a great match for Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and we expect him to at least form a committee with Mason if CMC misses time.

Jordan Mason didn’t dominate in snaps or opportunities (out-touching Elijah Mitchell just 5-2), but was the preferred back after CMC left with an oblique injury. Mason quietly recorded a 92.5 PFF grade over the last two seasons, second-best among all running backs.

• Kareem Hunt started for Cleveland and was heavily involved in the run game. He could overtake Ford as the Browns' lead back.

• Craig Reynolds should have the David Montgomery role after the Lions starter suffered a rib injury. Jahmyr Gibbs was reportedly close to playing this week and will return to the change of pace role.

• Devin Singletary played ahead of Dameon Pierce, taking the majority of the available snaps and early down work in Week 6. Singletary also outplayed Pierce, averaging 4.8 YPC to Pierce's 2.6.

• Keaton Mitchell was activated from IR but didn’t enter the running back rotation. He might be their best runner, so stash where you can.

• If the Rams don't sign a veteran (like Sony Michel), Royce Freeman could split the workload with Zach Evans, but Evans is the priority.

You’ll probably be OK without Emari Demercado, who disappointed with two carries for 11 yards and caught only one pass for six yards. Damien Williams and Keaontay Ingram each handled 8 and 10 carries. This looks like a committee. Gross.

Wide Receivers

Jaxon-Smith Njigba is not available but worth checking. As their starting offensive tackles return to health, the Seahawks ran more three-receiver sets (and less two-TE sets), evidenced by the 10th-most 11-personnel at 71.4% in Week 6. In Weeks 1-5, the Seahawks ranked 23rd in 11-personnel at 53.2% (@corbin_young21). He’s getting more opportunities and rookie WRs improve by over 50% in the second half of the year.

Josh Downs is the clear WR2 in Indy and has scored double-digit FP in 3 of his last 4 games (the majority with Minshew at QB).

Michael Wilson has a big frame (6’2” 213lbs) and big upside. He’s starting out wide for Arizona and could see increased usage in negative game scripts. @DP_NFL broke down Wilson’s two TD day against the 49ers defense (watch tape).

Curtis Samuel was second on the Commanders in targets, receptions and receiving yards. The RB/WR hybrid has scored 18.2, 18.5, and 14.2 PPR points across his last three, scoring a touchdown in each game.

Kendrick Bourne has now hit 9+ targets in half of his games this season, per @LateRoundQB. He was WR1 with most of the Pats WR room injured. Deep league only.

Wan’Dale Robinson caught 8-of-8 targets for a season-high 62 yards against a tough Bills defense. Strong PPR flier.

Darius Slayton is playing the most snaps at WR for the G-Men. Although he hasn’t shown it this year, he’s a capable deep threat (15 YPC for his career). Plus, his snap % (>80% in 4/6 weeks) at least provides him opportunities that are hard to find in deeper leagues.

We’re not falling for Rashid Shaheed, who is a boom/bust WR that will lose you weeks more often than he wins them.

QB & TE

TE Michael Mayer posted 5 catches for 75 yards in Week 6. The Raiders’ rookie has now seen a significant increase in snaps and targets each of the last two weeks. It helped that D. Adams only had 2 catches…

QB Daniel Jones might’ve been dropped in your league. He runs more than most QBs (third-most rushing yards for QBs over the first 5 games) and has a favorable matchup against a Commanders team. It’s greasy, I know.

TE Trey McBride caught four passes for 62 yards, both of which tied for the team lead. This occurred with Zach Ertz seeing a reduced role, making McBride a stash for TE-needy teams.

TE Jonnu Smith, currently the TE9 in fantasy football, is averaging 11.4 FPPG since Week 2. With Kyle Pitts playing legit WR/slot more often, Jonnu is the de-facto TE for Atlanta.

D/ST

Top: 49ers (@ Vikings in Week 7), Bills (@ Patriots), and Browns (@ Colts)

Mid: Commanders (@ Giants joke of an offensive line), Seahawks (vs. Cardinals), and Packers (@ Broncos)

Risk: Steelers (@ Rams), Patriots (vs. Bills), and Eagles (vs. Dolphins)

DEEP DIVES

Speed Kills, Just Ask Miami

The idea is you pick up players the week before everyone adds them off the waiver wire. Last week, the perfect pickups were Curtis Samuel and Jordan Mason.

NYG WR Jalin Hyatt (2.2%) played on 57-of-77 snaps in the Giants’ Week 6 loss to the Bills. With his 4.40 speed, the rookie has the potential to be a big play threat (nearly 19 YPC his last year in college). He just needs the volume (and a competent QB).

NO TE/QB Taysom Hill (4.8%) could stay fantasy-relevant for as long as Juwan Johnson (calf) is out. Without Johnson, Hill played TE and caught 7/8 targets for 49 yards. He isn’t consistent but still sees QB snaps.

TEN QB Will Levis (0.2%) is worth a stash in deep, two-QB leagues. Tannehill could miss time and Levis can’t be worse than Malik Willis. His mobility (17 rushing TDs in his college career) could at least provide a sneaky floor.

WAS RB Chris Rodriguez (0.2%) played more offensive snaps on Sunday (4) than the first five weeks combined (3). You’ll need an injury to Robinson or Gibson for him to be relevant, but he wasn’t PFF’s highest graded SEC RB for nothing — the kid has some juice.

INJURY REPORT

Yes, Your Team is Hurt

Another word to describe this season? Bloody. But some positive outlooks:

• Jimmy Garoppolo: Rushed to hospital (back) but reports are positive.

• Trevor Lawrence: A knee sprain that “is not a significant thing,” but the Jaguars are uncertain if TLaw plays in Week 7 against the Saints.

• Kyren Williams: A sprained ankle is expected to sideline him for Week 7 but is not considered a long-term injury.

• Deebo Samuel: May have suffered a mild AC sprain. Team believes he “will be fine”.

More concerning:

• Justin Fields: X-rays negative but an MRI upcoming, surgery possible.

• Ryan Tannehill: Injury to same ankle he had surgery on last year. MRI upcoming. Tannehill should be considered iffy, at best, to play in Week 8 following the Titans’ Week 7 bye.

• David Montgomery: He "will miss some time" and has bye in Week 9. Could return after.

• Christian McCaffrey: He may miss the next 2-4 games, per Twitter doctors, but Kyle Shanahan said McCaffrey (oblique) “hopefully” will play in Week 7 against the Vikings.

• Anthony Richardson: “probably” going to miss the rest of the regular season and could undergo shoulder surgery in the next week or so, per Schefty.

• Philadelphia Eagles Fans: After a brutal loss to the Jets, Eagles fans (ego) are questionable for Week 7.

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read Care/Don’t Care by Matt Harmon of Yahoo Sports. Matt doesn’t care much for the Ravens passing game hype:

“Odell Beckham may never recapture the explosive element in his game, and any momentum Rashod Bateman built earlier in his career has been thrown asunder more often than we can count. It’s left the Ravens in a position where they need to count on Nelson Agholor, who was signed to be a depth piece.”

📖 Read @LateRoundQB’s Weekly Thread, a great resource for takeaways of the past week. Two points JJ touched on:

• Bijan Robinson saw a sub-50% running back rush share for a second straight week in Week 6.

• Devin Singletary out-snapped Dameon Pierce 31 to 21 in Week 6. Pierce had a 50% running back rush share, a season low.

📖 Read Dynasty, in Theory: Age vs. Mileage by Adam Harstad of FootballGuys ($). Adam explains why age is a better predictor than workload when assessing when a running back will begin to decline.

🎙️Listen to Players To Add And Drop Before Week 7 by Alfredo Brown and Dave Kluge of FootballGuys.

📺️ Watch all of Jonathan Taylor’s touches in Week 6

Creator of the Day

Mark Dankenbring

In this series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Mark Dankenbring (@MarkDank) currently leads Player Projections & Props at Establish The Run, spending his life trying to understand the game, player usage and how it flows through the player projection numbers.

He published his first fantasy football article in 2016 with SportsHandle.com - breaking down the DraftKings Millionaire Maker in 2016. Earlier this season, Mark filled in for Evan Silva and co-hosted the Establish The Run Week 3 Recap podcast alongside one of our favorites, Adam Levitan.

Each Wednesday, Mark and the ETR team update their Rest of Season Top 150 Rankings and release a podcast discussing the ranking movement and providing trade advice. Some moves they suggested from last week:

Shop DJ Moore. He’ll work all year as a volume play, but Mark and the ETR guys have him ranked 45th ROS and expect his efficiency to drop significantly. ETR suggests targeting: Waddle. Pittman. Olave. DK. Puka. Evans. Smith.

Trade for Achane (if you’re top of your league). The chance is high that the Achane owner in your league needs wins and would be willing to trade him for some production. If he’s healthy, he’s a top-12 RB. ETR suggests moving: Gibbs. Pierce. Pacheco. Ford. Jones.

Target Jaxon Smith-Njigba. It’s looked bleak, but coming out of their bye, he was in on 71% of the snaps and 81% of Geno’s dropbacks. Ran the same number of routes as DK and Lockett. If anything happens to DK or Lockett, he’s a smash.

Mark also realized that the “Mr. Unlimited” video from Russell Wilson sounded like Andre from The League… we haven’t been able to unhear it since. 

Tweet of the Day

Kamara looks so sick of Jameis Winston 😂 

Before we go, text that friend who started Justin Fields thinking he’d go off for another 30 points, only to have him dislocate his thumb and finish with 4.9 FP. Sheeeesh.

Thanks for joining us.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean

PS. Don’t forget to share the newsletter twice. Once you do that, we’ll roast a team in your league mercilessly.