Good morning. It's been a few days since Kyle Pitts was placed on the IR, which means I'm almost ready to give up. The "It's Kyle Pitts so I can't sit him" pain is over. Time to take responsibility.

It's also almost your last chance to take advantage of The Athletic's deal of the year. Their typical $95+ yearly subscription is on sale for just $12. Click the image below.

Now onto the news I'd want to know, if I were you.

OUT

Ja'Marr Chase (hip) was ruled out for Week 12. Chase is expected to be back to full production Weeks 13-14.

Joe Mixon is out (concussion) but is expected to return Week 13. Fire up Samaje Perine, who faces a Titans team allowing the most Targets (9.3), receptions (7.1), and is also top 15 in yards and TDs per game to RBs.

Justin Fields is not expected to play. Listed as questionable (shoulder), it looks like Trevor Siemian will be the Bears starting QB against the Jets. According to @BradBiggs, the team doesn't want to see Fields suffer a further injury to his non-throwing shoulder - although he will warm up to test the shoulder.

The Ravens announced that TE Isaiah Likely (ankle) was downgraded to OUT and will not travel to Jacksonville, per @RoccoDiSangro.

IN

Cardinals expect WR Marquise Brown to be activated off IR and play today. QB Kyler Murray is also expected to play. Fire up both.

Five Packers players were reportedly sick after some questionable Thanksgiving cooking from Mason Crosby, but all players returned to practice Saturday and the spread of the "illness" seems under control (Aaron Rodgers sort-of explains what happened in this video).

KEEP AN EYE ON

Keep an eye on Deebo Samuel, who is TBD heading into Sunday with a hamstring injury. If he plays, you should lean towards starting him but lower expectations. SMA algorithm projects 90% production if playing. But it's his 2nd hamstring injury this season and carries 20-25% re-injury risk. Have to start if he plays.

Josh Jacobs was a late add to this week's injury report and is questionable heading into Sunday (calf). If he misses, don't bother with his handcuff and instead resort to prayer, praying that you're not facing Davante Adams. Start Jacobs if he plays.

Gus Bus Edwards - Expect to play Wk 12. RBs returning from moderate hamstrings average 90% of pre-injury production. Risky start. I’d sit.

Start & Sit

Jeff Wilson Jr SZN

Start

Rachaad White is a no-brainer with Leonard Fournette out. Despite ranking 37/48 in PFF rush grade and playing behind PFF's second-worst offensive line, you’ve held White for 11 weeks and will start him in this favorable matchup in CLE.

Jeff Wilson Jr. Look, you're starting him because teams run against the Texans at the highest rate in the league (34.6 rushing attempts per game), the Dolphins are two-score favorites, AND Raheem Mostert (knee) is doubtful. Jeff Wilson is set for nuclear.

Terry McLaurin faces the Falcons CB A.J. Terrell, who has allowed a league-high seven receiving TDs despite missing three games. McLaurin could have a huge game against the Falcons 31st ranked defense in PPR points allowed to WRs.

Start Geno Smith against the Raiders, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to QBs this season. Smith has a 13.8% big-time throw rate against man coverage (compared to just 3.6% against zone). The Raiders use man at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.

Sit

DJ Moore's season has been tough. HC Steve Wilks cited Moore's catch rate, the defensive attention, and offensive play-calling as to why Moore’s target share has decreased. This week, Moore draws shadow coverage from one of the league's best cornerbacks in Patrick Surtain II. Downgrade.

Diontae Johnson leads the NFL in targets without a touchdown this season (86!) and is facing red-hot Colts CB Stephon Gilmore this week. The Colts have allowed a league-low 26.0 PPR PPG to opposing WRs. I'm passing on Steelers WRs this week.

Aaron Rodgers has only one game as a top 10 fantasy QB this season. The Packers play the Eagles, who have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. The Eagles are also a top 4 defense in both PFF pass-rush grade and PFF coverage grade. Sit.

CONTENT

Spotlights on Vegas

The Rundown by Establish the Run compiles some of their favorite and most actionable takes. Three nuggets from @EvanSilva's Matchups:

"Raiders-Seahawks offers Week 12 shootout possibilities with Vegas yielding the NFL’s ninth-most points per game (24.2) and Seattle just barely allowing less (24.1).

Still among football’s least-contested workhorse backs, Josh Jacobs is coming off a 27-touch, 160-total-yard effort on 80% of Vegas’ offensive snaps at Denver. Jacobs was the only Raiders player to log a Week 11 carry. Seattle is giving up the league’s ninth-most fantasy points to running backs.

I’m going back to Foster Moreau as a low-end TE1. Moreau played 100% of the Raiders’ offensive snaps, and the Seahawks have allowed the league’s most fantasy points to tight ends."

Two points from @ScottBarrettDFB's epic Usage Report on FantasyPoints:

"Najee Harris really might be back from the dead. In back-to-back games, Harris has hit season-highs in both touches (20 > 24) and YFS (99 > 116). And his volume last week was basically identical to where he was in 2021, when he led all RBs in snaps and weighted opportunity points.

Christian Kirk's dream matchup doesn't look as good in reality. After scoring 21.6 and 31.5 fantasy points in his past two games, Kirk now ranks 13th (16.2) in fantasy points per game. And Kirk has another perfect on-paper matchup again this week; Baltimore ranks 2nd-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs. But this matchup may only be soft on paper; Baltimore moved their best CB Marlon Humphrey back into the slot last week. If this trend sticks, this shifts to being a bottom-10 matchup." Highly recommend the full article.

One highlight from @DwainMcFarland's great Utilization Report on FantasyLife.com:

"Tyler Higbee started 2022 on fire, with three top-eight finishes in the first five games. Unfortunately, the Rams' offensive line woes put an end to that starting in Week 6 as the veteran TE was asked to pass block more often. With Cooper Kupp out of the lineup in Week 11, the Rams cut Higbee loose for an 89% route participation. A top-10 finish followed, and he now has eight targets in back-to-back weeks."

QUICK SLANTS

• 2023 NFL Free Agent Rankings: Top 10 players set to enter free agency. Lamar Jackson, Geno Smith, Tom Brady and other non-QB stud FA's to be.

• 2023 NFL Draft Order: Texans in prime position to take Alabama QB Bryce Young, Steelers hold top-10 pick.

• Reddit Adjusted Trade Value Chart - Week 12

• Rare gem: an old QB manual from the Eagles’ 2010 early install period that was put together by Marty, James Urban, and Doug Pederson. It’s just a small look into the process Andy Reid and his staffs go about developing the position within their offense.

Thanks for joining us this morning, go get those W's. And seriously, the QB Manual from the 2010 Eagles is worth a read. Same with The Athletic's sale of the year. Now, go get those W's.

Jake, Eddie, Matt

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