🏈 Running to the Waivers

Top adds for Week 2... + Najee’s OK? Dak‘s NOT.

Good morning. What a weekend. Nothing beats ignoring life for 7 hours every Sunday. We missed it. 

Reddit user u/aketchum339 reminds us that the fantasy season isn't decided after Week 1. Some "This time last year" facts: Ty'Son Williams was the RB9 & Austin Ekeler was the RB28. Your 0-1 start to the season is a fluke, don't sweat it.

And congrats to everyone who stashed top waiver wire pickups - Jaylen Warren & Jeff Wilson. It's now official - you're better than your friends. From deep dives last Thursday:

Today's newsletter outlines the top waiver wire pickups, with insights from the best analysts in the business.

MARKET

Losing Dak is a massive downgrade for CeeDee, while Amon-Ra St. Brown now has 8+ catches and 10+ targets in seven straight games.

We've now seen Christian Kirk make two appearances with Trevor Lawrence:

  • Week 2 Preseason: 32% target share on 8 targets

  • Week 1: 28.5% target share on 12 targets

We've made some massive adjustments to our ROS rankings - sharing the newsletter with three people gives you access.

WAIVERS

Watching the Wire

Jeff Wilson // Niner Noise

RUNNERS: Jeff Wilson Jr.

Per @AdamSchefter, Elijah Mitchell is expected to be sidelined for about two months with a sprained MCL. The depth chart behind Wilson is questionable and the 49ers love to run (they ran around 57% of their plays on Sunday, a game they lost). In the 8 games he's started in his career, Wilson averages 17.6 PPR PPG.

  • Jamaal Williams: Jamaal Williams saw only 4 less carries than Swift (15 to 11) & converted two TDs.

  • Darrell Henderson Jr: The Rams RB1, Henderson outpaced Akers in snaps (54 to 12) and carries (13 to 3), and was utilized in the passing game (5 grabs for 26 yards).

  • Jaylen Warren: The offensive line was awful, and Mitch Trubisky struggled to move the ball down the field, but I'm a sucker for good volume. Warren saw all the RB snaps once Najee left (But read Quick Slants).

  • Dontrell Hilliard: Turned four targets into three catches, 61 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Strong handcuff in potential James White role?

RECEIVER: Curtis Samuel

Samuel did his best Deebo Samuel impression, lead Washington with 11 targets (8-55-1) and 4 rushing attempts for 21.2 PPR points. Overlooked this offseason, Samuel is only owned in 8% of leagues and draws a plus Week 2 matchup against the Lions.

  • Taysom Hill is a QB, RB & WR with TE eligibility. Don’t be the guy complaining that Hill shouldn’t be a TE. Be the guy winning the league.

  • Kyle Phillips led the Titans with 6 catches and 66 yards after dominating Titans camp. Phillips had a 42.9% target rate in Week 1 (9 targets on 21 routes), almost never seen in a rookie WR. 2021 Hunter Renfroe?

  • Robbie Anderson led the Panthers in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in Week 1 against the Browns, despite being as thin as paper.

  • Zay Jones earned 9 targets against the Commanders and looks like the WR2 on high-volume passing O.

  • Jahan Dotson: Elite usage in Week 1 (88% of snaps) and 2 TDs. Every down WR worth adding.

If he's available, Julio Jones is the WR1 add. Don’t buy the hype on Devin Duvernay.

PASSER: Marcus Mariota

 Mariota ran the ball 12 times for 72 yards and a touchdown on Sunday against the Saints. Per @dwainmcfarland, he had a 22% designed rushing attempt share and 11% scramble rate. He had a decent fantasy day despite throwing 0 TDs.

The case for Carson Wentz: He put up 27.7 points in the opener & displayed chemistry with a strong WR group of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel. The Commanders have a dream matchup against the Lions next week. He's a great streaming option if you drafted Dak Prescott.

The case for Cooper Rush: Just kidding.

D/ST

Defense Wins Championships

When key offensive players are out, especially o-linemen and QBs, suddenly there are more D/ST sleepers. This week shapes up to have no shortage of viable options.

  1. Cincinnati Bengals @ DAL - Dak is out and the Cowboys offense forgot the regular season started.

  2. San Francisco 49ers vs. SEA - Great D-Line playing against a weak offense.

  3. Denver Broncos vs. HOU - Houston looked decent Week 1 but the Broncos opened as 10.5 favorites

  4. Green Bay Packers vs. CHI - Aaron Rodgers owns the Chicago Bears. And their defense should dominate a weak Bears O.

  5. Buffalo Bills vs. TEN - The Titans were slow out of the gate and the Bills are in mid-season form.

  6. Los Angeles Rams vs. ATL - Expect a bounce back performance from the Rams.

  7. Cleveland Browns vs. NYJ - Joe Flacco is the Jets QB.

KICKERS: Ban them.

Brian Daboll: Legend. 

QUICK SLANTS

  • Saquon Barkley is back. He hit 21.1 MPH on a run - the second fastest of any player in the NFL Week 1 and the fastest he's hit since 2019. (video)

  • Three RBs saw at least 90% of their team's RB rushes this week: Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor, and Derrick Henry.

  • The next player on that list (84.6% share) is Cordarrelle Patterson per @LateRoundQB. Cordarrelle doesn't care about your aging RB regression models.

  • Dak Prescott had surgery on his fractured right (throwing) thumb on Monday and will be out 6-8 weeks.

  • The Score's Jordan Schultz reports there's a "good chance" Najee Harris will play in Week 2.

  • Cowboys EVP Stephen Jones said the team is "evaluating all options" at quarterback following Dak Prescott's hand injury.

Remember: Jon Gruden got a $100 million contract for 10 years. You can do anything you set your mind to. Get after it today.

Jake, Eddie, Matt & Coach Wehler.

Tweets of the Day

Christian really drops that joke in.

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