Good morning. It’s been a busy few days in the NFL world with multiple injuries to keep an eye on and Brandon Aiyuk being more indecisive than my wife flipping through Netflix.

So without further ado, let’s get right into it…

AROUND THE LEAGUE

Aiyukidding Me?

Brandon Aiyuk is going to be a Steeler!….or a 49er? I don’t even think Aiyuk knows what he wants at this point. Reports surfaced yesterday that the 49ers and Steelers have a deal in place and the 49ers just need to sign off on it. But then a later report claimed the 49ers and Aiyuk “aren’t that far apart” on a long-term deal, suggesting the WR could stay in San Fran.

So ultimately it seems like it’s up to Aiyuk… hopefully we have an answer sooner rather than later so we can all just move on.

Injury Report 🚑

• Vikings rookie QB J.J. McCarthy is expected to have surgery on a torn meniscus. Per Adam Schefter, there are two different recovery timelines, depending on if he needs a trimming of the meniscus or a full repair. A trimming could put him out for roughly 6 weeks, while a full tear could potentially end his season, per Edwin Porras, DPT.

• Chiefs WR Hollywood Brown is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with his shoulder injury, per Jordan Schultz. Meanwhile, there haven’t been any updates on a possible Rashee Rice suspension… so he and rookie Xavier Worthy get big boosts in Brown’s absence.

• Giants rookie RB Tyrone Tracy had a scary non-contact leg injury in practice and left the field in an aircast. Fortunately, though, he was diagnosed with just a low-ankle sprain and is considered week-to-week.

• Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs strained his hamstring on Monday. Per Adam Schefter, it’s unlikely Gibbs will play again this preseason, but he should be good to go for Week 1.

• Giants rookie WR Malik Nabers told reporters there’s “no doubt” he’ll be ready for Week 1, despite being sidelined with an ankle injury.

• Saints RB Alvin Kamara left practice with “back tightness,” but HC Dennis Allen doesn’t expect it to be a big deal.

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SLEEPERS 💤

QB

• Kyler Murray (QB10) has never averaged fewer than 18.2 fantasy points per game, and over his first four seasons, he finished as the QB11, QB3, QB4, and QB7, respectively (per Pro Football Network’s Jason Katz). Add in rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and emerging TE Trey McBride, and it’s easy to see how QB10 is probably his floor.
  

• Jayden Daniels (QB12): “Looking for a potential Top 5 fantasy QB with a low-end QB1 price tag? Look no further than Jayden Daniels. The electric rookie immediately becomes a threat to challenge for the league lead in QB rushing yards. He ran for over 2,000 in his two-year LSU career while producing a ridiculous 57-7 TD-to-INT ratio as a passer. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is a strong fit for Daniels stylistically, and he had fantasy success with another dual-threat QB in Kyler Murray. Daniels’ rookie year impact could be similar to that of former Washington QB Robert Griffin (QB4 overall in 2012).” — The Athletic’s Theo Gremminger.
  

• Geno Smith (QB25): While his stats were disappointing last season, Smith was quietly top 10 in success rate from a clean pocket and under pressure while leading the league in Big Time Throw% on deep passes for the second straight year, per Yahoo’s Dalton Del Don. And his new OC, Ryan Grubb, is known for slinging it downfield — which his Washington Huskies did a lot of last year. Look for Smith to bounce back.

RB

• Chase Brown (RB37) is an elite athlete with an opportunity to take over the backfield on a promising offense. Coming out of the University of Illinois, Brown posted a relative athletic score (RAS) of 9.81 out of 10, and last season he put this athleticism on display with a 54-yard TD where he reached a top speed of 22.05 mph, the second fastest speed of any ball carrier that year, per Michael OHara of Sporting News. And as we’ve outlined in previous newsletters, reports out of camp suggest Brown is in line for a big role this season.
  

• Rico Dowdle (RB44) was more efficient than Tony Pollard last season, ranking 21st out of 56 RBs (min. 100+ scrimmage plays) in PPR points per scrimmage play (per The Athletic’s KC Joyner). And now he just has Ezekiel Elliott in front of him, whose biggest training camp highlight has been looking like me getting out of bed after a night out:

• Jaleel McLaughlin (RB51) “flashed big-time upside in limited action as a rookie. PFF graded him as its 16th-highest rusher, and he also finished seventh in PFF’s Elusive Rating. Among backs with 65 attempts, McLaughlin finished fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt,” per Roto Baller’s Dave Ventresca. RBs have always been valuable in Sean Payton offenses, and with no one really separating themselves in this Denver backfield, McLaughlin could be an interesting flier late in drafts.

WR

• George Pickens (WR26): After trading Diontae Johnson to Carolina, the Steelers are ready to go all in on Pickens. In the four games without Diontae last season, Pickens was the WR13, averaging 14.5 half-PPR fantasy points per game and posting the 8th highest fantasy points per route ran rate (0.49) among WRs with at least 110 routes (per Fantasy Points Data). As long as the Steelers don’t end up getting Brandon Aiyuk, Pickens should shine.
  

• Christian Watson (WR39) tallied 13 red-zone targets in just 9 games played in 2023, as well as a whopping 15 end-zone targets during the regular and postseason combined (6th), per the staff at FantasyPros. And although Green Bay’s WR corps is crowded, from Weeks 5-13, Watson led them in target share (17.7%), air-yard share (36.7%), yards per route run (1.79), end zone targets (14), first-read share (22.3%), and first downs per route run (0.081), per Derek Brown of FantasyPros. Watson’s an explosive playmaker with perhaps the highest ceiling among WRs taken in this range, as in his last 15 games in total, he averaged 13.3 points per game — the same as Ja’Marr Chase from 2023.
  

• Rashid Shaheed (WR62) “reached the end zone five times on attempts of 20-plus yards in 2023, catching 12 of his 21 chances. His passer rating when targeted on deep throws was 121.5, which of course ranked among the highest in the NFL. This year, under new OC Klint Kubiak (previously the passing game coordinator for the Niners), we can reasonably expect to see the usual deep shots to Shaheed, along with more quick-hitting YAC opportunities,” per Yahoo’s Andy Behrens.

TE

• Pat Freiermuth (TE15): “Last year, Arthur Smith's Falcons actually threw more passes than the Steelers, and [Russell] Wilson is arguably the best quarterback Smith has ever had. Smith's teams have also been TE-centric, leading the NFL with a 34% TE target share last year,” per Heath Cummings of CBSSports. Look for Patty Fries to return to his previous TE1 form.

• Isaiah Likely (TE19) would be a TE1 on most teams, if not for Mark Andrews holding him back. Last year, when Andrews was sidelined over the final six games of the regular season, Likely delivered 21 receptions for 322 yards and five TDs. Extend that level of production over a full 17-game season, and you have a contender for overall TE1 status, per Yahoo’s Andy Behrens. While Likely is typically thought of as a TE-handcuff, HC John Harbaugh did say “he’s going to be a big part of what we do,” which bodes well for some standalone value for Likely.
  

• Tyler Conklin (TE20) is due for some serious positive regression — he didn’t score a single TD on his 61 receptions last season. Conklin is also one of just seven TEs to draw 80+ targets in each of the last two seasons — the others: Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, Evan Engram, David Njoku, and Dalton Schultz (per Jared Smola of DraftSharks). Add these underlying metrics into possibly the biggest QB glow-up (Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers) and you can easily make a case for Conklin to be a low-to-mid TE1.

POLL 📊

ROOKIE SPOTLIGHT 🔦

Jonathon Brooks

After sitting for two years behind Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson, Jonathon Brooks was putting together an All-American season before tearing his ACL in November. Despite the injury, he was still the first RB off the board in the NFL Draft, going in the 2nd round to the Carolina Panthers.

Brooks is an elusive runner (63 missed tackles forced in 2023, per PFF, tied for 11th among all RBs) and has excellent contact balance (732 of his 1,135 rushing yards in 2023 came after contact, per @NFL_DougFarrar). He also profiles as an every down back with his sticky hands and pass blocking chops.

With this skillset, most expect Brooks to eventually surpass Chuba Hubbard on the depth chart once fully healthy. But that might not be until halfway through the season, as HC Dave Canales suggested Brooks’ debut might have to wait until Week 3 or 4 — not to mention the few weeks he’ll need to ease into the fold and shake off the rust.

As a fantasy RB3, Brooks can provide some serious late-season boost to carry you through the playoffs. But don’t count on him as a starter. Assess whether or not your roster can handle him on your bench/IR for much of the year before drafting him.

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Why Pre-Snap Motion and Zone Defense Are Keys to Unlocking Fantasy Football Sleepers from The Athletic’s Jake Ceily. An interesting stat referenced by Ceily in this article comes from FantasyLife’s Dwain McFarland:

Last 3 seasons in NFL: WR motion routes have been worth 50% more fantasy points than non-motion routes.

📖 Already know your draft slot? Read The Roto Street Journal’s ”How to Draft From Pick __” Series, including Liam Boyle’s latest article about the 1.06 pick, which he considers his favorite slot to pick from.

📊 Check out Clayton Gray of FootballGuys’ Ultimate Strength of Schedule Chart. One thing that stands out: the Falcons are the only team with good schedules for both RBs and WRs.🧐

🎙️Listen to Fantasy Football Draft Strategies: How to Draft from an Early Draft Position from the Fantasy Life Show with Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland. The guys look at how your roster could shape up, as well as some stacks to target and sleepers to keep an eye on.

🎙️Listen to J.J. Zachariason and Rich Hribar discuss their players to avoid on the latest episode of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Lions TE Sam LaPorta is a surprise name on Hribar’s list — mostly due to potential TD regression and the high price you have to pay for him.

📺 Watch Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell ask each other if they have CTE.🤦‍♂️

TWEET OF THE DAY

If you think you have it bad, just remember: it could always be worse…

Just 22 days until regular season NFL football! Should be enough time for you to order your new favorite cologne, Parfum de Mayonnaise.

See you Friday.

- Marcus