Good morning. Congratulations to Kyle Pitts, who is on track to be the first tight end ever to finish with 100+ targets and under 8 PPR points per game.

Not the record I was hoping Pitts would break when I called my friends clowns for passing on him.

Week 11 has another four teams on bye, with a lot of fantasy ammunition on the shelf between the Dolphins, Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Jaguars all off this week.

START & SIT

Start

Start Karadius Toney, who @dwainmcfarland ranks as his WR16 (and WR8 if Toney plays 80% of routes). Toney played 44% of the snaps last week and should be in line for an even bigger role with both JuJu and Hardman out. For some, Toney feels like a trap play this week but we're going to fall for that trap EVERY SINGLE TIME.

Start Greg Dulcich, who is firmly on the TE1 radar in Week 11. The Raiders have allowed 6 receiving TDs to tight ends this season. Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson are streaming options this week.

Start Isiah Pacheco, who is the starting RB in what Vegas expects to be a high-scoring game. Pacheco is well-positioned to rack up yards and find the end zone against a Chargers defense that allows the third-most rushing yards per game (146.8). 

Start Parris Campbell, whose PPR finishes last three games with Matt Ryan are WR10, WR5, WR11. "Campbell has been the Colts' primary slot receiver, so he should match up with Josiah Scott (57.1 PFF grade) in man coverage."

Start Nico Collins as a WR3/FLEX play for rosters hurting through the bye week. Collins logged three-straight top-40 scoring weeks and plays 93% of his snaps out wide, where Washington is allowing 10.4 yards per target (30th) and a 7.1% touchdown rate (30th), per SharpFootballAnalysis.com.

Sit

Sit D'Andre Swift, who is really bugging me. Post-shoulder injury, RB ramp-ups take 4+ wks. He's had 3. We'd avoid Swift and start Jamaal Williams for at least 1 more game

Sit Gus Edwards, who is likely ready to play, but high risk to start Wk 11. Strong hamstrings protect his newly reconstructed ACL. Most commonly would see committee-type approach in Baltimore this soon after injury.

Sit Keenan Allen, who is still tbd but likely playing. Very high re-injury risk for recurrent hamstring in age 30+ players. ~20% stats hit projected, while Mike Williams also returns.

Sit Kareem Hunt, as the Browns backup hasn’t seen many touches this season and the Bills' defense is unlikely to be where he turns things around.

Sit Russell Wilson, who has finished as a top-14 fantasy quarterback only once this season. Wilson has an 8.9% turnover worthy-throw rate against man defense this season, compared to 2.5% against zone. The Raiders call man defense at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. You do the math, Jabroni.

CONTENT

Best Reads of the Day

Amon-Ra St. Brown's last 12 healthy games: 22.5 PPR points per game (would be WR4 over current Tyreek Hill - 22.2 FPG). Has seen at least 24% of targets with 9+ total targets in every game in this span, per @GrahamBarfield.

Mark Andrews is expected to play and should be at 90% production coming off an AC sprain, per @SportMDAnalysis.

Tony Pollard has started just three games in his NFL career. He's scored 24.8, 36.7, and 31.2 DraftKings points in them. Ezekiel Elliott has scored 24+ DraftKings points in just 2 of his last 38 games, per @AdamLevitan. Zeke has still had 20+ touches 13 times during that span, while Pollard's touch counts in his starts are 18, 15, 25.

If it's not too late, you might want to sell the following players (who have tough playoff schedules):

• Tua Tagovailoa, QB, MIA — 30th: BUF, GB, NE

• Joe Burrow, QB, CIN — 27th: TB, NE, BUF

• Josh Jacobs, RB, LV — 32nd: NE, PIT, SF

• David Njoku, TE, CLE — 30th: BAL, NO, WSH

Ja'Marr Chase should be back for Week 12, but will likely be fully health by W13-14. Just in time for that playoff run.

Kyler Murray's status is up in the air, as Kyler is questionable due to his hamstring injury. SMA's algorithm predicts 100% chance Kyler plays Call of Duty, but only a ~60% chance he plays football this weekend.

Speaking of the Cardinals, their WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown should play this week, and we would be firing them up wherever we have them.

The Eagles are coming off their 1st loss of the season & the Colts offense will look to exploit Philly's run defense this week. @DariusJButler breaks down how explosive Indy's run game can be with Jonathan Taylor in this (video).

Darren Waller: "People can throw me under the bus, I'm tough enough to handle it." But not tough enough to play this season...

Fantasy Managers:

Pat Freiermuth "posted a 27% target share in the first game without Chase Claypool. The second-year TE has missed some time with injury, but his 23% TPRR is in top-three territory versus historical rates," per FantasyLife.com's Dwain McFarland.

Rookie Watch

Treylon Burks arrives

Treylon Burks has played six games so far as a rookie. In those, he has earned an elite 35%-plus targets per route in three out of six, per @DwainMcFarland. On Thursday vs Packers, Burks led the team in targets (8), receptions (7) and yards (111).

Remember, as a rookie AJ Brown broke out in a major way down the stretch, but that didn’t start until Week 12. Will be interesting to see what the rest of Burks’ rookie season looks like.

After scoring 5 TDs in two games, Christian Watson became my personal hero and became the Packers' first rookie WR with multiple TD catches in consecutive games since Super Bowl I hero Max McGee. In 1954. The same year Swanson introduced TV dinners.

Kenny Pickett has been bad. Per @SharpFootball: On throws 10 yards and further downfield, Kenny Pickett is 20-of-53 (37.7%) with zero touchdowns and seven interceptions.

You should probably stash Trey McBride, who was one of the few TEs in his class who checked nearly every box: Above-Average Athleticism, 2nd Round Draft Capital, Productive Final 3 Yrs at Colorado State. Graded as a 93rd-percentile prospect & was easily @FF_MarvinE's TE1.

QUICK SLANTS

• ESPN's Dan Graziano reports the Raiders could release QB Derek Carr after the season to avoid paying the final three years of his contract. Colts are (probably) favorites to sign Carr.

• Great article on why 49ers DC DeMeco Ryans is a perfect head coach candidate this offseason.

• Micah Parsons organized a thanksgiving giveaway that included 1,000 turkeys being distributed to local families in need. Love to see it.

• After a massive snowfall in Buffalo, the Bills Browns game was moved to Detroit.

• NFL cornerback rankings ahead of Week 11: 1) Patrick Surtain II; 2) Sauce Gardner; (3) Jalen Ramsey and more

Thanks for joining us this morning. And don't forget to stash these direct backup RBs if you have a roster spot. I'd stash the following:

• Keaontary Ingram, RB ARI

• Dontrell Hilliard, RB TEN

• Trestan Ebner, RB CHI

Jake, Eddie, & Matt

Tweet of the Day

Despite 4-feet of snow, the Bills made it to Detroit.