🏈 Stats Win Games

Good morning. How about starting the day with great news: The Patriots’ Lawrence Guy hosted a baby shower, donating over $40,000 in gifts to pregnant single mothers - including diapers, health supplies, and more.

Time for our weekly review 👇

Quarterbacks

In a week where studs (Dak, Josh Allen and Mahomes) couldn’t crack the top 10, a familiar face (Justin Herbert) finished as the QB1. Herbert passed for 382 yards and ran for 90, something no NFL QB has ever done.

Fellow 2020 alumni Jalen Hurts continues to be a fantasy juggernaut, finishing Week 11 with 3 rushing TDs. Hurts sent a Saints DE into another dimension (video) and is now the overall QB1. Hurts has the league’s highest QB rating and his teammates are raving about him.

• Taylor Heinicke was PFF’s highest-graded QB in Week 11 and leads the league in passing TDs on throws of 20+ yards.

• Joe Flacco scored more fantasy points than Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson. Combined. Sentences like that are painful to write.

• Kirk Cousins is quietly putting together a fantastic season. He’s tied with Tom Brady with 7 QB1 performances (2nd in NFL), has the lowest interception percentage in the league, and leads the NFL in passer rating in the red zone. MVP???

Running Backs

How great is Jonathan Taylor? Check the stats:

• Taylor has more runs of 30+ yards (6) than the entire NFL.

• He’s RB1 overall (with a 50+ point margin) and was the first to hit 1,000 rushing yards.

• Taylor tied the NFL record of 8 straight games with 100 scrimmage yards and a Rush TD (LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006)

• He’s on pace for 2,231 total scrimmage yards, 5.8 YPC, and 23 TD.

Coincidence that Austin Ekeler had his best game of the year after we wrote an Austin Ekeler Tribute on Saturday? We take some credit for his 4 TDs and 115 yards. And Ekeler wants to run it back next week. 

• D’Andre Swift is dominating on the ground and leads all running backs in targets. Despite Jamaal “Go Away” Williams returning, Swift controlled 73% of snaps and 80% of routes.

• Myles Gaskin isn’t a sexy pick, but he’s a good one. He has more top 12 finishes than studs like Aaron Jones, and has seen great usage the past 3 weeks:

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin ranks 3rd most snaps double covered, has no second option to get the weight off him, yet leads the NFL in contested catches (23). Next closest player? 14. Imagine if McLaurin had consistent QB play… One thing’s for certain, Scary Terry needs to make his first Pro Bowl.

• Justin Jefferson finished as the WR1 with 169 yards and 2 TDs. He is now tied with Davante Adams for most games with over 100 yards since 2020.

• Brandon Aiyuk is out of the doghouse and ballin (85 yards and a TD). Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel both have the easiest WR schedule for the rest of the year. 

• Darnell Mooney saw 16 targets while Allen Robinson sat. This led to a massive 5/121/1 performance on a 49% target share. If Robinsons sits, Mooney should see massive volume against the Lions on Thursday.

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert’s target share has increased to almost 30% since Zach Ertz left.  Speaking of Ertz, he was TE1 with 2 TDs and 88 yards. 

• The most normal thing of Week 11? The Lions losing.

• The second-most normal thing? Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and George Kittle all with top 5 TE finishes.

D/ST

Gary Davenport again breaks down the best defensive plays of week 12. A surprising inclusion: The Detroit Lions.

• “That's right—the Lions defense. The Bears managed just 13 points in last week's loss to Baltimore and sit dead last in the NFC in total offense and 29th in the league in scoring offense. The Bears have also allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to defenses and lead the league in sacks allowed. And they're playing on a short week with Andy Dalton.”

• Hey Gary, great points…

But what about Matt Nagy?

More specifically, what if he’s not coaching? Bears fans (and football fans) are counting down the days until Nagy is sent packing. Nagy lost the trust of his players during a stretch in which the Bears lost five straight, and he’s lost Chicago.

• People showed up at Nagy’s son’s high school football game chanting “Fire Nagy” (video). That’s not cool, and Nagy wasn’t impressed.

• Fire Nagy chants during a Chicago Bulls game (video).

Well, they are in luck: Matt Nagy Will Coach His Last Bears Game On Thanksgiving: Source. Hopefully. Nagy stated that it was “not accurate,” but he’s not great at evaluating situations. Or coaching football.

Quick Slants

• The Giants finally realized Jason Garrett was their offensive coordinator, and quickly fired him.

• Texans surprisingly cut Phillip Lindsay. Rex Burkhead and Royce Freeman may see extra work, while Lindsay becomes an interesting stash.

• The Adrian Peterson experiment came to an end after the Titans waived him. He leaves the team with more TD’s than Julio Jones

• Golden Tate will be called up from the Titan’s practice squad to the active roster ASAP, with hopes he can contribute right away. STASH.

• Jets placed Joe Flacco and Mike White on the Covid List, meaning Zach Wilson will start in Week 12.

Tweet of the Day

Thanks for joining me this morning! If you need any other waiver pickups (or are bored at work), check this out

- Eddie

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