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What's gone wrong with the Colts o-line, buys & sells before w9 & much more...
Good morning. Last weekend, while at my cousin's wedding, a second-cousin (always a red flag) was talking to me about sports. "Oh yea football's great" and the usual banter. Then he starts dragging fantasy football through the mud with "some people take it so seriously, like come on man." Come on man?!
Thankfully, none of us take fantasy football too seriously.
Today's newsletter features buys & sells, the best of the best, and quick slants that Michael Thomas won't be running.
BUY & SELL
The case for...
NewYorkJets.com
Buying low on James Robinson, who had a relatively quiet Jets debut last week. The Jets have the second-easiest remaining schedule for RBs, including the easiest in the fantasy playoffs. Robinson is averaging 4.2 YPC and the Jets didn't trade for Robinson to not play him. 12-18 carries and a few targets make him a potential RB2.
Buying Davante Adams, who you'll never really buy low - but he's at least available. Adams caught one pass for 3 yards on 5 targets in last week's dud. Adams was on a streak of three games with 90+ receiving yards before Week 8. Adams was upgraded to full participant in Thursday practice and should rebound.
Selling Kyle Pitts, who finally put up a solid game last week against the Panthers. PFF's Nathan Jahnke explained that Pitts is relied upon heavily when the Falcons are losing - but their schedule is the second-easiest going forward. With the Falcons likely to be run-heavy, this could be the biggest haul you'll get for Pitts.
Buying low on DeVonta Smith, who still maintained a 27.6% targets per route run and the Eagles have one of the easiest remaining schedules for WRs. He's also a dual threat. lol.
DeVonta Smith, TE2
â Footballism⢠(@FootbaIIism)
6:36 PM ⢠Nov 1, 2022
CONTENT
Best Reads and Listens of the Day
Cleveland.com
"Justin Fields could be a top 12 [fantasy] QB with Chase Claypool. Fields is what everyone wanted Malik Willis to be last week." - Adam Levitan on ETR's Rest of Season Top 150 podcast.
Start Joshua Palmer everywhere you can. "The Falcons have been getting pummelled by opposing wide receivers lately, allowing 45.9 more PPR fantasy points to the position than any other defense over the past three weeks alone (172.7). DBs Casey Hayward (shoulder) is on injured reserve until at least Week 11, while A.J. Terrell (hamstring) missed Week 8 and is questionable for this contest" per ESPN.
More Palmer hype. Chargers WR have "by far the best matchup, worth in real terms +13.0 FPG over their expectation" this week against the Falcons, per this free Fantasy Point's article by Jake Tribbey.
"Joe Mixon is bad in pass protection and running the football. Mixon ranks 65th out of 67 backs with a pass protection grade of just 24.3 and leads the league with 3 sacks allowed. Mixon's elusive rating is also down (51/54 RBs) and yards after contact average ranks 53/54 RBs."
Meanwhile, backup RB Samaje Perine has yet to allow pressure this season (88.7 grade)." Per @JoeGoodberry in this Twitter thread.
"Raheem Mostert faces the 28th-ranked Bears defense in rushing aFPA. Chicago should be worse this week, as they're playing without Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn. Mostert's speed and vision will get him to the second and third levels of the Bears' defense before he is even touched." - Fantasy Football: Five Week 9 matchups to exploit by Jeff Hicks of 4for4.
"Darrell Henderson's 0.21 fantasy points per snap is the lowest figure for a RB this season. The Rams face the Buccaneers, who have allowed the 6th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Not a great option because of the matchup, even riskier considering the competition in the backfield." from Jahnke
Cincinnati Bengals miss JaâMarr Chase: "It was concerning to see how badly the Bengals' offense struggled without the star WR, as they generated a season-low -0.199 EPA per play against the Browns in Week 8." By PFF.
Regarding Chase's injury (hip fracture) - less than 3 weeks is highly unlikely.
Trevor Lawrence should bounce back this week. The Jags sophomore has a dream against the Raiders, "who have seen all seven opposing quarterbacks score 17+ fantasy points against them, including Davis Mills (18.08 in Week 7) and Andy Dalton (17.16 in Week 8)" per ESPN.
Trevor Lawrence has the top matchup for opposing QBs (+7.2), while slot WR Christian Kirk has by far the best matchup among slot WRs (+7.0) per this free Fantasy Point's article.
"If Christian Watson doesnât play in Week 9, Packers WR Samori Toure is a mildly interesting. He played on 72% of GBâs snaps on their final two drives of Week 8, and could push for a bigger role in Week 9 given Green Bayâs health issues at WR" via Tribbey's Week 9 DFS Study Hall.
Colts Disaster
Coltsâ offensive line struggles: Where has it all gone wrong? The Athletic's Zak Keefer examines how the Colts went from arguably the best front in football for three years post Quinten Nelson pick, to this year's disaster.
"Outside of the obvious â the Colts should have never started the season with Matt Pryor at left tackle and Danny Pinter at right guard â tangible answers have been hard to come by. Thereâs also the notable absence of Jack Doyle, the trusty tight end who sprung so many of Taylorâs big runs last season."
QUICK SLANTS
Per @jamisonhensley, Rashod Bateman will get Lysfranc surgery and it will be a season-ending injury.
Saints HC Dennis Allen told reporters that he does not expect WR Michael Thomas to play again this season. Thomas has played in 10 games in the last three seasons.
Jonathan Taylor didn't practice again for the second straight day - @AdamSchefter. For what it's worth, Taylor said his ankle feels much better in comparison to the ankle issue he had earlier this season. Friday's practice status will be telling for his status.
According to ProFootballTalk, the Rams didn't "turn down" trade offers for Cam Akers from other teams; the Rams were desperately making proposals to other teams and couldn't find a taker. Despite the efforts to split up, Akers returned to Rams practice on Thursday.
Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy on RB Isiah Pacheco as the starter: "Well, first of all, all of those guys are going to play. . . It doesn't make a difference who starts the game or who finishes the game. When they're in there they are going to contribute."
Thanks for joining us, and not taking fantasy football (or life) too seriously.
Jake, Eddie, & Matt
Tweet of the Day
I LOVE FANTASY FOOTBALL!! F*** you second-cousin!!
When your wife just left you but at least you got backup tight end Isaiah Likely off waivers for your 2-6 fantasy team.
â jeFF (@TheFantasyEng)
12:50 PM ⢠Nov 3, 2022
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