Good morning. It’s August 2nd and already Cooper Kupp has left practice with an undisclosed injury.

But here’s some good news to start your day: State Farm Unveils an Insurance Policy That Protects Customers Against Jackson Mahomes.

“Residents in the Kansas City area, as well as in cities where the Chiefs’ divisional rivals play, are at high risk of an unexpected expense after being affected by Jackson Mahomes,” said State Farm spokesperson Delia Gregg, adding that State Farm would advertise the policy in a new commercial that features a Jackson Mahomes lookalike who is seen dabbing at a bar before he turns around and punches a fellow patron in the face.”

It’s about time. Thank you, The Onion.

Kickoff Countdown

ROOKIE

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Even Pete Carroll can't slow Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose hype train has been rolling since his record-setting 2021 season at Ohio State. In a receiving corp that included Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, it was the 19-year-old Smith-Njigba who led Ohio State in target share (22.7%) and set a Big Ten record with 1,606 receiving yards to go along with 9 TDs; he was better than Wilson and Olave.

Despite being hurt for much of 2022, JSN was the first receiver taken in this year's draft and should be Seattle's starting slot receiver. You should probably draft him wherever you can.

What makes JSN special?

• Quickness: his 3.93 short shuttle and 6.57 3-cone times were the fastest in this year's combine. The only other RD1 WR’s to run sub-4.00 in the past 10 years: Ja’Marr Chase (3.99), Amari Cooper (3.98), Odell Beckham (3.94), Brandin Cooks (3.81).

• Explosiveness: he led all WRs in this year's class with 34% of his targets becoming 15+ yard receptions (per PFF)

• Versatility: while he profiles immediately as a slot receiver, he posted an 83.3% success rate vs press coverage (per Matt Harmon's Reception Perception) and should compete with the aging Tyler Lockett for snaps in 2-WR sets

• Hype: "I couldn’t imagine him not being part of the mix right from the beginning. It just comes too easy for him. We’re looking for the spots we can put him in, how to move him around, and see how much he can handle. There’s nothing that’s holding him back." - HC Pete Carroll

• More Hype: Reports say JSN has shown a “special” connection with Geno Smith and teammate DK Metcalf also said JSN will have a “special season.”

Given his ADP of WR39 (PPR) and the value of drafting rookie first-round WRs (as outlined by The Athletic's Jake Ciely), Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a name to target in the middle of your fantasy draft.

RISERS

New Faces and New Opportunities

📈 Rachaad White is the favourite to be RB1 in Tampa Bay. Bucs OC Dave Canales called White a “three down back” and ESPN is reporting they see true star potential in White, who is expanding his route tree to become a “do-it-all” option. He caught 50 balls last year and Fournette’s departure leaves behind 83 targets. Chase Edmonds and Ke’Shawn Vaughn may mix in, but are as talented as I am. And I’m writing this.

That said, did anyone on the Buccaneers actually watch White play last year?? (@JMoyerFB).

📈 Jerry Jeudy finished the 2022 season strong, ranking as the WR3 in FPPG from weeks 14-18. In training camp, Jeudy has been the focal point of the revamped Sean Payton-led offense and is unquestionably Wilson’s first read in his progressions, per Broncos beat writer Luke Patterson.

📈 After finishing as TE24 in 2022, Darren Waller should bounce-back. With no true WR1 on the Giants, Waller is locked into the #1 receiving role. He has been torching the Giants defense all training camp and his elite skill-set at the goal line should compliment perfectly with QB Daniel Jones, who led the league in completion percentage inside the 10. Waller’s teammates have been “in awe” of him this offseason.

FALLERS

Broncos WR Room in Shambles

📉 Broncos WR Depth. Over the last few days, Broncos WR Tim Patrick suffered a ruptured achilles and WR KJ Hamler was diagnosed with a minor heart irritation and is expecting to be waived. Devastating news for both players and their families. While the Broncos WR depth takes a hit, rookie WR Marvin Mims - Sean Payton’s first draft pick as Broncos coach - could see immediate opportunity.

📉 Kyle Pitts recovery. On the Establish the Run podcast, ESPN’s Stephania Bell spoke about Pitts being limited early in camp, saying, "the injury looked worse than [what was reported last season] and I suspect there was more that they didn't say. What we're seeing right now is what [the Falcons] aren't saying". Not great news: With the injury concern and question mark at QB, Pitts may not be worth the risk at his current ADP (TE5).

👀 Alexander Mattison and backup RB Kene Nwangwu were both injured at Vikings practice yesterday. Mattison was limping on the sidelines, but could be heard saying "I should be OK" as he headed into the locker room, per SI.

📉 Chargers rookie WR Quentin Johnston has reportedly been dropping passes during camp. He’s dropped as many as four passes without any coverage from DBs. 1) fade him or 2) buy and pray this is another Ja’Marr Chase “dropseason.” We’re buying.

📉 Colts backup RB and Jonathan Taylor “handcuff” Zack Moss broke his arm and will miss about six weeks. That leaves Evan Hull, Deon Jackson, Jake Funk and Zavier Scott in the RB room. Those four have combined for 81 carries, 267 yards and 2 TD’s (all from Jackson). Like my boss, none are inspiring.

But don’t sleep on Javonte Williams, who “hasn’t been limited it any capacity at camp”

DYNASTY

Najeeee

What to make of Najee Harris for dynasty? Good question.

Harris is already 25 years old in just his third season and faces increased competition in Jaylen Warren. Still, Harris owns the RB1 role on the historically run-heavy Steelers and is their undisputed goal-line back.

📹️ Check the tape: u/TheSaucePossum shares his film review of Najee on reddit, takeaways below:

“Harris is a unique RB, and has a combination of strength, lateral agility and size that nobody else in the league possesses. He doesn't have elite burst or speed, and his decision making can be inconsistent, but on tape I see these issues exaggerated by poor line play and at times, Harris not trusting his line enough.

Harris is incredibly physically talented, and has an all-pro type of ceiling.”

What do to? Per Dynasty Nerds:

Rebuilding: Wait until the season and then sell high on Harris since he will be on the wrong side of fantasy value by the time you’re ready to compete.

Contending: Buy low on his value right now, as Harris should be in for an RB1 season again.

Harris is still a top-12 running back who may see 300+ touches in a rising Steelers offense. Do what you will.

For more dynasty content, read PFF’s Bargain bin trade targets for dynasty rebuilders and contenders - their take on James Conner below.

With the organizational overhaul the Cardinals have dealt with this offseason, it is easy to overlook James Conner, especially in dynasty. Despite Arizona’s rough 2022, Conner still snuck out a top 20 RB finish. This offseason saw no major additions to the backfield, and with Corey Clement, Keaontay Ingram and Emari Demercado (who??!) rounding out the running back room, it is doubtful that Conner sees any major drop in usage. His future beyond 2023 is in question but for contending teams, trading a second-round pick for a player with easy RB2 upside seems like a no-brainer.

QUICK SLANTS

Extra Effort

📖 Read Anatomy of a League Winner: 2023 Edition by Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points. This article is a compilation of data used to identify the profile of 2023 fantasy football league winners.

“Year 5 QB Daniel Jones (ADP: QB14) stands out as a player with underappreciated rushing upside and underrated league-winning potential. Under Josh Allen’s former OC Brian Daboll last year, Jones finished 10th in FPG (18.4), and only 0.5 FPG off of the QB7.” (no paywall 🔓️)

📖 Read Ian Hartitz of FantasyLife’s Favorite Pick In Every Round article.

Round 12: Jaylen Warren. “Warren was out-performing Najee Harris in every facet of the game as a rookie… and “is one injury away from rocketing up draft boards and stands out as arguably the most valuable handcuff in football considering the Steelers’ history of leaning on workhorse backs. I love drafting Warren at this point in the draft when the WR and TE options are rather gross.”

📖 Read PFF’s Kate Magziuk on Overvalued Players to Avoid in 2023 Drafts.

Travis Etienne’s burst is off the charts, and so is the upside for this Jaguars offense. However, that might not be enough to justify his RB10 price tag based on his potential for competition in the backfield with rookie RB Tank Bigsby and competition for targets with the Ridley addition. In 2022, Etienne’s 43 red zone carries and 13 carries inside the five both ranked top-10 in the league, but Bigsby’s massive frame is expected to get him most of those valuable touches.

🎙️Listen to EstablishtheRun’s Evan Silva on why Chargers WR Quentin Johnson could be a big factor in the second half of the season (video)

📺️ Watch Josh Allen get his revenge on Peter King (video)

📺️ Watch Darrell Revis hold Megatron to just one catch for 13 yards (video)

That's a wrap for today. Let us know what you thought of today’s edition below. And follow us on Twitter to see everything that didn’t make it in the newsletter @MorningHuddleUp.

Tweet of the Day

Will Rodgers lead the Jets to the promised land, or pull a Favre (Jets collapsed and missed playoffs despite starting 8-3, after which Favre retired (again) before joining the Vikings)?

We don’t know, but we will be tuning in to find out.