Good morning. First, congratulations are in order:

1. To the hundreds of new subscribers of the Morning Huddle, congrats on your brilliance.

2. To Josh Jacobs, congrats on the raise.

3. To Chris, congrats on ruining RGIII’s day:

And congrats to Cowboys fans on the theft. Trading a 4th round draft pick for a 23-year old QB drafted third overall - with less than 700 in-game passes since elementary school - is risky, but the downside is minimal.

At least Jerry Jones thought so, because the Cowboys bought Trey Lance at a major discount. We found a screenshot of Jerry’s explanation:

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RANKINGS

WR Chris Godwin moved up five spots after he went 4/30 and a TD on two drives in the preseason. At ADP of WR31, we want to be way ahead of market on Godwin. He’s the only player who caught 100+ passes last year with an ADP outside of RD2.

WR Jameson Williams has dropped to WR60. The vibes around Williams are just terrible after multiple injuries, a suspension, and a lack of playing time. Rather not draft him.

RB Samaje Perine moved to RB39 after OC Joe Lombardi indicated Javonte Williams will be on a “pitch count” to start the season. While Perine's role should decrease as the year goes on, he's an early season flex option. Correspondingly dropped Williams to RB25.

Rookie RB Sean Tucker has moved to RB60 after receiving first-team reps last week. The rookie RB looks to have won the backup job in Tampa and could even carve out his own role with the starters.

Last year, these free rankings guaranteed you drafted Rhamondre Stevenson (+9 spots above consensus)…

STORY

Zero RB? Hero RB?

Many call Shawn Siegele’s first Zero RB article “the greatest fantasy article” they have ever read. In the article, Shawn (@FF_Contrarian) explains the Zero RB strategy. Hint: it is what it sounds like: You don’t draft running backs in the high leverage rounds. Depending on how the draft progresses, you’d have two options: draft one high upside running back in Round 4 or 5, or draft none until later.

Shawn’s argument has two parts:

1. The prediction error involved when drafting running backs is higher than for other positions.

2. Running backs carry more injury risk than all other positions.

The goal is to dominate through your WRs while you work the wire for injury fill ins and breakouts at RB. The antifragile aspect of your roster allows it to get stronger as RBs are injured throughout the year - this hurts other rosters but strengthens yours. Think of it like picking up Jerick McKinnon last season, rather than drafting CEH.

Shawn’s preferred lineup after five rounds was one stud tight end and four top wide receivers. Only then does he focus on selecting potential breakout players, the receiving back in timeshares, and backups in good offenses.

In 2023, a Zero RB build could look like this:

• Round 1: Cooper Kupp

• Round 2: Garrett Wilson

• Round 3: Tee Higgins

• Round 4: TJ Hockenson

• Round 5: Christian Watson

On Reddit, /zanderman12 shared his deep dive into Zero-RB to determine whether it is the optimal strategy. Alex explains why teams that go Zero-RB reduce their odds of a championship: PPR settings don't seem to make Zero- or Anchor-RB a winning strategy. You still need prioritize RBs early.

However, while PPR settings don't seem to matter, being in a league that starts 3 (or more) WRs will give you a much better chance at succeeding with the Zero-RB strategy. Full deep-dive into Zero-RB here (no paywall).

Scott Barrett (then of PFF, now of Fantasy Points), wrote a strong response to Zero-RB: Metrics that Matter: Drafting RB1s vs. WR1s explaining that:

1. RBs aren’t injured as often as we think

2. We are better at drafting RBs than we think

In 2014 Shawn explained the Zero RB methodology - since then, the list saw some wild success:

• 2015 Zero RB list included the No. 1 overall RB (Devonta Freeman).

• 2016 list featured a breakout star and RB5 in PPG (Melvin Gordon).

• 2017 list included RB3 Kareem Hunt and RB4 Alvin Kamara.

• 2019 list featured the 313-point scoring Austin Ekeler and rookie breakout Miles Sanders.

• 2020 list featured the overall RB5 in James Robinson and rookie sensation Antonio Gibson.

• 2021 list featured James Conner (No. 4 overall in win rate), plus the two-highest scoring backs in the fantasy playoffs, Devin Singletary and Rashaad Penny.

• 2022 list featured Jerick McKinnon, who finished as the RB4 during the fantasy playoffs, and a late-round 1,000-yard rookie in Tyler Allgeier.

You can find Shawn’s 2023 Zero RB Candidates List on Rotoviz here ($).

MARKETS

Chiefs WR Movement

📉 Rashee Rice is moving in the wrong direction on the Chiefs depth chart. Rice started the preseason strong, regularly playing with the starters. However, Rice didn’t see an offensive snap with the starters during the Chiefs’ first drive during their final preseason game. Meanwhile, Richie James went from the backups to playing with the starters and left the game well before Rice. James is a deep league flier.

📈 Titans RB Tyjae Spears led the NFL preseason with 4.73 yards after contact per rush, all without an ACL. With Derrick Henry turning 30 in January and Spears showing out (runs like this), Spears is a valuable handcuff and could see significant playing time as a change-of-pace back in the Titans run-heavy offense.

📉 Rachaad White stock tumbles. Few players have had as impressive of a preseason as Bucs’ undrafted rookie RB Sean Tucker. Recent reports suggest Tucker is splitting first team reps with White in practice. White’s time as the bell cow may be over, but its surprising it came this early in the year. Remember: the Bucs gave Tucker $155k guaranteed as a UDFA, which is more than RBs in rounds 6&7 get as a signing bonus.

📈 Josh Jacobs secured the… slight raise? Jacobs and the Raiders agreed to a one-year deal worth up to $12M, ending his holdout and ending any off-season fantasy draft discount. The 2022 NFL rushing leader looks ready to have another monster season. You can click here to see why HC Josh McDaniels implementing a gap-running scheme fit Jacobs perfectly.

📉 The Browns traded OT Tyrone Wheatley Jr. for Patriots RB Pierre Strong. While the trade makes sense for the Pats after they signed Zeke, it isn’t great news for Jerome Ford. Ford, who is still sidelined with a hamstring injury, was receiving Browns RB2 hype but trends down after this news. Strong could be better than Ford as an “Elijah Mitchell-type”, per @LateRoundQB.

Depth Charts

Rookie: Tank Bigsby

Not many RB2s saw more hype this off-season than Tank Bigsby. And for good reason. He went from only one snap with the starters in the Jags first preseason game to seeing 36% of the snaps in their final game. He also averaged 6.2 yards per touch (compared to 4.9 for Travis Etienne).

The rookie RB was a difficult evaluation coming out of the draft, as his o-lines ranked 90th, 94th, and 92nd-worst during his time at Auburn. With defenders often hitting him in the backfield, Bigsby had to fight for every yard and led this year's class with 75.8% of his yards coming after contact.

Bigsby’s expected goal line and pass catching opportunities in an ascending offense are valuable. It’s also important that the Jags went back to him after a goal line fumble in his last preseason game.

If his role continues to increase, Tank is an ideal “flex with benefits” candidate.

QUICK SLANTS

Hopkins in Year 10

📖 Read JJ Zachariason’s take on DeAndre Hopkins on the Titans, which includes:

“If Hopkins is getting a 25% target share in this offense, then what's that mean for the rest of the Titans? Specifically, Treylon Burks and Chig Okonkwo?

Burks can still capture a 20% target share in this offense. The talent has to be there, of course, and there's reason to believe it is. He was a higher-end prospect coming out last season, and he finished his rookie season with a 1.75 yards per route run rate. That was close to Garrett Wilsons' 1.85 rate, for context... We may see the market overreact to Burks' outlook, causing him to become a value. There are still plenty of outs for him to have a nice season. Perhaps Burks and Hopkins end up capturing half of Tennessee's targets this year.

Having those possible higher-end outcomes means that Burks shouldn't fall below WR40 to WR45 in your draft.”

📖 Read @LateRoundQB’s take on the Effects of a Mobile Quarterback on Wide Receivers, which includes why Anthony Richardson could be great news for Michael Pittman. Hint: RPO-heavy teams ended up with multiple 20% target share players at double the rate compared to the teams who had lower RPO rates.

📖 Read Trading Trey Lance Could Be The Demise of John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan by @ChrisPolo_ for Sports Illustrated.

🎙️Listen to Late Round Perspectives, a weekly podcast episode as part of JJ Zachariason’s Late Round podcast. Late Round Perspectives are long form and feature a new member of the fantasy industry each week. You can listen to the first edition of Late Round Perspectives with guest Sigmund Bloom of Footballguys on Apple and Spotify.

📺️ Watch a former Patriots QB coach tell a story that shows a side of Bill Belichick that the public never sees (video).

📺️ Watch new Cardinals QB Josh Dobbs explain what happens in the 24-hours after a player gets traded (video).

Creator of the Day

Alex Korff

In this new series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

You might recognize Alex Korff (@PeakInHS_FF) from reddit, where he posts as PeakedInHighSkool. His first post on the r/fantasyfootball subreddit went viral: “Reddit Adjusted Consolidated Trade Values Week 10 ( FP+CBS+trade thread)”. A huge trade guy, Alex created this article for the subreddit community & has been a go-to source for trade info with his Reddit Adjusted Trade Value Chart series being the #1 resource for traders.

While best known for the Reddit Adjusted Trade Value Chart series, Alex has created a new Rookie Prospect Model this year. His take: “Film grinders have a place, and analytic prospecting has a place.” So, Alex combined both.

If you’re a fan of things like winning your league and happiness, you need to read his draft prospects article. Chart below:

Do You Play Dynasty?

If you are into dynasty, check out Alex’s Dynasty Trade Value Charts on his Patreon. Or find his work over at Draft Sharks, where he publishes Superflex Dynasty Rankings and Trade Value Charts.

What are Trade Value Charts?

Traditionally, it’s a table that separates fantasy players by position (QB/WR/RB/TE/draft picks) and assigns each a “trade value.” The “trade value” assigned should indicate a player's future potential and account for his past.

Alex’s dynasty trade value charts start with Draft Sharks award-winning projections as the foundation. They then apply machine-learning algorithms to build each player's estimated 3-, 5-, and 10-yr projections. The algorithms use historical player data since 1999 to generate aging curves and retirement rates for players by position and player archetype.

We can use trade value charts to look for trade targets and evaluate a trade's fairness.

You Have to Factor in ‘Trade Tax’

For example, a team with a depth wants to trade depth pieces for a stud like Bijan Robinson (value: 87). Offering Dameon Pierce (48) and Deebo Samuel (39), which equals 87, would be a low offer. Why? Because the team receiving Pierce and Samuel would need to use two lineup spots to match the value Robinson supplies in one.

You likely have to send two players who total closer to 110-130 to get Robinson. Najee Harris (59) and Tyreek Hill (58) total 117, and the trade tax would be 30 in that example (117-87). This trade still might be a little light when trading for Bijan.

Read the full dynasty trade value article here.

Tweet of the Day

The first Pro Bowl rookie TE since Jeremy Shockey? Hold my beer.

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