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- π Thursday Night Disappointment
π Thursday Night Disappointment
Deeeep dives ft. Nelson Agholor & more. Browns v Steelers preview.
Good morning. It's easy to be excited that football's on tonight, until you remember we'll be watching Mitch Tribusky battle Jacoby Brissett. The Browns are 4.5 point favorites, but maybe we bet on Trubisky?
Against the spread, this man is ...
+ 7-15 as a favorite
+ 1-11 in division
+ 0-7 as a favorite in division
+ 0-4 against Mike TomlinBut, yeah, let's make the Browns 4.5-point favorites against the Steelers.
β Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle)
11:59 PM β’ Sep 21, 2022
Today we'll look at some deep dives on players you should be monitoring, a review of tonight's matchup and key updates from around the league.
DEEP DIVES
The idea is you pick up a player the week before everyone wants to grab them off the waiver wire. This column wins leagues like no other. Last week, Jerick McKinnon and Greg Dortch were productive w/ TDs and had 10+ pt performances, while Parris Campbell proved (again) that he cannot be trusted. Should've known better. This week's stashes:
Tyler Allgeier (16.7%) - Facing a good Rams defense in his first career game, Allgeier was inefficient (3.0 YPC), but still saw 48% of the team's carries (three in the redzone). The Falcons reportedly want to manage Patterson's reps (Patterson's usage took a hit Week 2) and Damien Williams is on the IR, making Allgeier the next man up for the Falcons.
Marlon Mack (3.7%) - The 49ers elevated Mack to their active roster this week & assume he will play in Week 3. We don't know if Shanahan trusts rookie Jordan Mason to give him significant work - it wouldn't be a shock if Mack has a leg up on Mason for the RB2 job behind Wilson.
Nico Collins (15.3%) - PFF's highest graded Texan, Collins led the team in receiving (not saying much), with 4 catches on 9 targets for 58 yards. He is the clear WR2 on the team - but with defenses focused on Brandin Cooks, Collins sees better matchups.
Also, why is no one talking about Nelson Agholor? (10.9%) - He was the 4th highest graded WR in Week 4 and is the only Patriot not named Jakobi Meyers with double digit targets through the first two weeks. He also is an early catch of the year candidate (video).
βThe next game will consist of finding a usable RB on the waiver wireβ
β Jeff Greenwood (@TheFantasyEng)
11:26 AM β’ Sep 21, 2022
THURSDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
A quick preview of every fantasy-relevant player in the Browns & Steelers game. And here's a video of that stiff-arm.
Passing:
Jacoby Brissett - Unless you're in a deep two QB league, don't do it. Just don't.
Mitch Trubisky - See Jacoby Brissett.
Rushing:
Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt - The Steelers have allowed the 12th most points to RBs through two weeks and now face the league's best tandem. Chubb is coming off a 3 TD game against the Jets but has struggled against the Steelers. Hunt gets his (30 touches through two games) and is currently RB10 on the year. Starting both.
Najee Harris - As mentioned yesterday, there were numerous videos circulating of Harris' poor vision last week. This, combined with a below-average OL, below-average QB and an awful OC, all contributed to Harris' meagre 2.9 YPC. To think that his ADP was above Tyreek Hill all offseason... Still, Najee has dominated in his 2 games vs the Browns. 1 TD in each game and 90+ yards. He also scored in all 5 of the Steelers primetime games last season.
Receiving:
Amari Cooper - Pittsburgh has allowed 5th most fantasy points to WRs this year, giving Cooper opportunity to build off his monster 9 reception 101 yard, 1 TD game in Week 2.
Harrison Bryant and David Njoku - They have combined for 9 receptions on 102 yards through two weeks. Neither are inspiring plays, although Njoku is seeing over 90% of snaps (Bryant saw less than 50% in both games).
Diontae Johnson - The only reliable WR for the Steelers has seen 10+ targets in both games. Did you see what Garrett Wilson did to the Browns last week? See the tweet below.
Chase Claypool/George Pickens - Claypool only has 44 yards w/ 5.5 yards per catch. Pickens has self-proclaimed he's open 90% of the time but has only 2 receptions to his name. Neither can be trusted. Sit.
Pat Freiermuth - Is the clear #2 in the Steelers passing attack, Freiermuth has double digit points in both games this year. With the lack of production from the TE position, he's a solid starter.
Diontae Johnson has a 31.43% target share this season (7th in NFL).
He faces a Browns defense that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to WRs:
Garrett Wilson: 8-102-2
Corey Davis: 2-83-1
Robbie Anderson: 5-102-1Bet the Over 55.5 receiving yards for Diontae Johnson.
β Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ)
4:32 PM β’ Sep 21, 2022
For more Steelers v Browns, the 33rd Team does a great breakdown (no paywall) in this article.
QUICK SLANTS
Lamar Jackson was seen wearing a protective sleeve at practice Wednesday and did not throw any passes. Still, HC Harbaugh confirmed Jackson will be playing Sunday.
Justin Herbert is day-to-day with a rib injury but participated in individual drills. Looking likely he plays, but still feels like a risky start. Fantasy Gods?
Alvin Kamara returned to practice Wednesday, putting him on track to play Sunday against the Panthers.
George Kittle was a limited participant at practice, a positive sign that he'll make his season debut this week.
Julio Jones and Chris Godwin both did not practice today. Julio has Wednesday's off so this does not say much about his status for this week, while I'd bet you $5 Godwin sits.
What a day we've got ahead of us. Be great out there.
Jake, Eddie, Matt & Coach Wehler.
Tweet of the Day
Ian gets it.
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