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🏈 Thursday Night Torture
Preview of the Battle of the Washed QB's and going Deep Diving
Good morning. Anyone else feeling grateful for fantasy football? Imagine watching a primetime Colts and Broncos game without it.
Fewest PPG in the NFL this season:
Colts: 14.3
Bears: 16.0
Broncos: 16.5— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS)
11:17 PM • Oct 4, 2022
Before we get into it, we wanted to highlight Scott Barrett's Week 5 XFP report. This article (free) is one of the most important things I read weekly. One interesting snippet:
Marquise Brown has seen at least 11 targets and has finished top-12 among WRs in XFP in each of the last three weeks. Over this span and on a per-game basis, Brown has averaged: 22.8 XFP/G (most), 143.7 air yards (3rd-most), 13.0 targets (most), 98.7 YPG (3rd-most), and 20.5 FPG (5th-most).
And what’s most impressive about all of this, is Brown has had one of the most difficult CB schedules of any WR over this stretch, running 42% of his routes against Nate Hobbs, Jalen Ramsey, and Jaycee Horn. For clarity, all three CBs currently rank top-7 in PFF grade.
Full report linked below.
Week 5 XFP Report [FREE]
- Your No. 1 trade target
- Your No. 2 trade target
- RBs in improving roles
- Who is the overall TE3?
- & morehttpfantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/s…p
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB)
7:34 PM • Oct 5, 2022
Today's newsletter will feature this week's deep dives, tonight's TNF matchup review and updates from around the league.
DEEP DIVES
The idea is you pick up a player the week before everyone wants to grab them off the waiver wire. This column wins leagues like no other. Last week, the best pickups were Kenny Pickett and Mike Boone. This week's players, available in almost every league, worth grabbing:
Khalil Shakir (0.4%) - With the Bills slot WRs Jamison Crowder (broken ankle) and Isaiah McKenzie (concussion) likely absent in Week 5, the rookie WR Shakir would fill the Bills valuable slot role. On the season, Shakir has a great 27% TPRR and made big plays in the Bills win against Baltimore. Stefon Diggs: the team has "full confidence" in Shakir, who's fast (4.43), elusive in space and has really good hands.
Latavius Murray (8%) - Recently signed by the Broncos, Murray provides RB depth behind Melvin "fumbling machine" Gordon and Mike "preSZN" Boone. Murray winning out the top role is possible. Unlikely, but possible. Especially after Murray's productive game for the Saints (5.1 YPC + 1 TD). Murray might not play much this week, but is worth monitoring.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (2.2%) - With Amari Cooper matched up against All-World AJ Terrell, DPJ led the Browns with 9 targets. DPJ has seen over 80% of snaps 3/4 weeks and could see more big play opportunities like this one (video). DPJ ranks ahead of Mike Williams and Courtand Sutton in Cooper Adam's XFP chart.
Also, not enough people are talking about Jameson Williams. HC Dan Campbell said his knee is "really progressing in a good way." The Lions produced the most top 12 FF games of any team through the first 4 Weeks. These same Lions drafted Williams 12th overall to be a huge part of this offense. He could be a difference maker in the second half of the season and is available in over 75% of leagues. Stash stash stash.
And ICYMI
Top-10 Week 5 Waiver Wire Picks:
1) George Pickens (39%)
2) Michael Gallup (41%)
3) Rachaad White (27%)
4) Isaiah McKenzie (47%)
5) Tyler Allgeier (20%)
6) Isiah Pacheco (20%)
7) Jameson Williams (27%)
8) Josh Reynolds (20%)
9) Kenny Pickett (6%)
10) Corey Davis (26%)Others?
— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf)
10:11 PM • Oct 4, 2022
THURSDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
Watching a primetime game with two washed QBs and head coaches performing at an Adam Gase-esq level. GOTTA LOVE IT. Here's a quick preview of every fantasy-relevant player in the Broncos & Colts game:
Passing:
Russell Wilson - After a disappointing start, Wilson had his first top 10 finish in Week 4. Without much rushing upside (avging 13 yards per game), but with Javonte Williams out for the year, the Broncos should rely on the passing game more than usual.
Matt Ryan - Speaking of disappointing starts, Ryan has 5 TDs to 8 turnovers. He is getting hit on average 9 times again, 2nd highest in the NFL. Facing an elite Broncos defense, expect more of the same in Week 5. Avoid.
Rushing:
Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone - As reported yesterday, Gordon will handle the majority of the work. But that could quickly change if his fumbling woes continue, as he's currently leading all RBs with 4. Boone's role will depend on Gordon's productivity, but Boone has been a preseason star stuck behind more talented RBs (Dalvin Cook) his entire career. Hard to predict. I'd trust Gordon this week.
Nyheim Hines - Jonathan Taylor is officially out, with Hines expected to be the main beneficiary. Given his size and playing style, Hines is not a "bell-cow" back. But in 20+ games with 10+ touches, Hines is averages 14.5 PPG. In this economy, I'd take that.
Deon Jackson and Phillip Lindsay - If you're starting these guys, good luck.
Receiving:
Michael Pittman - Pittman leads the Colts in targets (28) despite missing a full game and had a TD catch called back last week. The clear WR1, Pittman rarely leaves the field (90% of snaps) and historically excels in primetime games. That said, he faces an elite CB in Patrick Surtain II. Temper expectations.
Alec Pierce - We like Pierce. With 141 yards on 7 receptions in his past two games, Pierce currently ranks 4th among rookies in receiving yards per game. He's not a sexy play, but Pierce has flex consideration with Pittman facing Surtain.
Courtland Sutton -Sutton leads the league in catches 15+ yards (8) and is 5th in the league in receiving yards. He's clearly the #1 option in Denver, leading the team in catches, targets and receiving yards. Automatic start.
Jerry Jeudy - Jeudy had a bounce back game with 4 catches, 53 yards and a TD after plagued by injuries in Weeks 2-3. The WR2 behind Sutton will face a Colts defense giving up 4th fewest points to WRs. Don't prioritize starting.
All TE's - Bronco's TE's have combined for 92 yards and 1 TD on the season. Pass. The Colts are currently rotating 3 TE's, with only Mo Alie-Cox being a top 15 TE on the season, with 23 of his 30 fantasy points coming last week. Pass.
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QUICK SLANTS
David Montgomery hasn't returned to practice after missing all last week. Bears have been vague about his injury but MD Deepak Chona recommends sitting him for W5.
When asked about the lack of targets for Allen Robinson, HC Sean Mcvay said "a lot of it is out of his control" alluding to where Robinson is lined up against those defensive coverages. Kupp will see 20 targets a game.
Kyle Pitts was not at practice due to a hamstring injury that he must've suffered doing cardio on Sunday. Will monitor.
@DrakeFantasy has an interesting thread on next steps to take if your team is 4-0 or 3-1 so far this year.
Tom Brady missed practice today with a broken heart...and a right shoulder and finger injury.
Cole Beasley announced his retirement saying he wanted to spend more time with his family...
Last thing: We're buying Romeo Doubs everywhere. Playing with a HOFer looking for a his new WR, the age-22 rookie is primed for a massive season. Marvin explains why:
Romeo Doubs has been the Packers’ WR1 since Week 3, leading all Green Bay WRs in per game:
• Target Share (24.2%)
• Opportunities (8)
• Yards After Catch (44.5)
• Expected Fantasy Points (10.6)
• Half PPR Points (14.3)#GoPackGo
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE)
1:27 PM • Oct 4, 2022
Thanks for joining us this AM!
Jake, Eddie, Matt & Coach Wehler.
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