Good morning. Especially to Bears fans. Your team currently holds the best odds to land the No. 1 overall pick in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. The Bears (might) finally get a win.

Good news to start your day: Damar Hamlin returned to the field on Sunday for the first time since his near death experience. Guaranteed Comeback Player of the Year. Respect ✊

Speaking of comebacks, help us find the Bengals franchise QB.

And if you enjoy newsletters and money, you should check out our friends at Never Not Wealthy, who explain why you shouldn’t stop spending money👇️ 

RANKINGS

C.J. Stroud is the 6th player in NFL history to average 300 pass YDs and have 0 INTs through the first 4 games in a season. The others? Manning, Brady, Brees, Mahomes, and Rodgers (@SportsCenter). Damn.

Joe Burrow falls to QB15. His 182 passing yards per game is almost 100 less than last season (280). Burrow averages just 8 ppg, which is 13 points lower than in 2022. His calf shows no signs of improvement and I wish they sat him.

De’Von Achane rises to RB20. After a monster outing last week, the rookie put up 101 rushing yards and 2 TDs on just 8 carries on Sunday, despite playing a tough Bills defense. Achane can be a league-winner in Miami’s explosive offense.

Nico Collins moves up to WR38. "He has two WR1 finishes through four weeks in an increasingly potent Texans’ passing attack, so until further notice, Collins is a mid-range WR2 with low-end WR1 upside” per Matt McKay of FantasyPros.

Dallas Goedert falls to TE9. Despite being on an elite offense, Goedert is not elite. The TE29 has scored fewer fantasy points than Kyle Pitts, per @MichaelFFlorio.

STORY

Week 5 Waiver Wire

You’ve already grabbed Puka Nacua, Zach Moss, De’Von Achane.

Add Adam Thielen (15+ fp in three straight), C.J. Stroud (20+ fp and 2 TD passes in three straight) and Zach Charbonnet if possible. This week’s top adds.

WR Jameson Williams (32%) returns two weeks early. The 2022 first-round pick should not be on waivers, but he’s a must-add if available. Dan Campbell made it clear that the 2022 first-round pick will not immediately become a full-time starter, so don’t start with confidence just yet. Bet.

WR Romeo Doubs (24%) remains widely available. While Christian Watson’s role will grow (only played 45% of snaps in his first game back) -- Doubs’ 13 targets, nine catches and 95 yards in the game were encouraging.

“As I attempted to remind everyone prior to the season, Watson’s stretch of relevance in 2022 was directly correlated with a stretch of missed games for Doubs. With both guys now healthy, I truly believe Doubs is the better bet to lead Green Bay in targets and catches”, by Matt Okada of NFL.com.

WR Rashee Rice led the Chiefs WRs in targets and yards in b2b weeks and could be a difference-maker for the stretch run.

RB Gus Edwards (35%) quietly took 71% of the RB carries and saw an impressive 17% target share.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin (2%) was so good in the preseason (highlights below) that Denver had to keep the UDFA. College football's all-time leading rusher can handle more work than most backs his size (under 190lbs), per John Hansen of Fantasy Points. If Javonte misses time, McLaughlin is startable right away. If not, it’s possible JM carves out a role as Sean Payton’s Darren Sproles.

WR Michael Wilson was highlighted by Fantasy Points as a true sleeper rookie WR in their “Mr Relevant” article this summer, and he keeps playing better with each passing week through the first month of the season. His fantasy production has risen in four straight games, culminating in a 7/76/2 receiving performance for 26.6 FP against the 49ers in Week 4, per Fantasy Points Week 5 Waiver article.

Samaje Perine (54%) should be picked up. He’s the less-sexy starter who saw the majority of RB work in Week 4. Doesn’t have the upside of McLaughlin.

WR Josh Palmer took over the No. 2 role with Mike Williams done for the season. He was tied for the team lead in routes run and led the team with a 33% target share, per Kevin Hickey of The Huddle.

TE Jake Ferguson might not see the playing time we would hope for, but as long as he keeps seeing a 27% target share, he can be in starting lineup, per Nathan Jahnke of PFF.

RB Tyjae Spears would handle 20+ touches if Derrick Henry misses time. Not many backup RBs can say the same.

High-upside backups like Elijah Mitchell (41%), Tank Bigsby (25%), and Kendre Miller (21% rostered) should also be rostered in most leagues.

D/ST Streamers

• Jets: facing the Broncos in Week 5.

• Commanders: facing the Bears in Week 5.

• Vikings: facing the Bears in Week 6.

• Raiders: facing the Bears in Week 7.

• Chargers: facing the Bear…

Deep Streamers:

QB Joshua Dobbs has three straight games with 17+ fp. Kyler won’t be ready to play when first eligible in Week 5. And you never know when Call of Duty drops a double XP weekend.

RB Jordan Mason is worth an add in deeper leagues with Elijah Mitchell (always) ailing.

WR Braxton Berrios had his biggest game of the season with WRs Erik Ezukanma and River Cracraft both out with injuries that will cause them to miss multiple weeks, per Sigmund Bloom of Footballguys.

MARKETS

Pittman Is A Top Dynasty WR

📈 Buy Michael Pittman. Pittman had his worst outing in Week 4 but still saw a 20.8% target share. He was the only player who caught 8+ passes in the first 3 games, seeing at least 11 targets in those games. Week 4 was an outlier. @AdamHarstad has Pittman as a top-12 dynasty WR in his rankings.

👍️ Hold Quentin Johnston. In his first full game without Mike Williams, Johnston saw a 71% route participation - a huge uptick from his 28% in Weeks 1-3. With TE Donald Parham also injured, Johnston should continue seeing increased usage.

📈 Buy Marquise Brown. Consistent all season long, Brown ranks WR15 in the NFL in target share and is averaging 14.5 FPPG. He’s quietly WR18 on the season. With Arizona’s offense better than expected (and Kyler returning), Brown should continue to produce at a Top-20 rate..

🫡  The Bengals struggle is real. Tee Higgins suffered a fractured rib but said it should not him out for an extended period of time. He could potentially play this week. The Bengals are dead last in yards per play through the first month. This will regress (like Derrick Henry last week).

Important Dalton Kincaid sighting:

Deeeep Dives

Riverboat Ronnie Rivers

The idea is you pick up players the week before everyone adds them off the waiver wire. Last week, the perfect pickups were Michael Wilson and Jaleel McLaughlin.

RB Pierre Strong Jr (1.1%) led the Browns in rushing each of the last two weeks and was the most efficient RB. Beyond Jerome Ford's 69-yard run against Pittsburgh, he’s averaged just 2.38 YPC, per Jeff Bell at Footballguys. If Ford continues to struggle, Strong could see more work.

WR Derius Davis (0.1%) emerged for the Chargers, gaining 51 yards on 3 carries and 16 yards on 2 receptions. Given injuries to Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams, Davis and his 4.36 speed (2nd fastest WR at this year’s combine) could emerge as a versatile weapon.

RB Ronnie Rivers (0.3%) played 28% of the snaps on Sunday, finishing with 9 carries for 47 yards. He outperformed Kyren Williams in “every metric,” per @DaveKluge, and the Rams have spoken about reducing Williams’ workload. Rivers seems to be earning a complimentary role in LA and is the handcuff to own.

WRs Trey Palmer (0.5%) and Deven Thompkins (0.2%) saw extra work Sunday with Mike Evans sidelined with a hamstring injury. Palmer took over in 12 personnel and could be the waiver target if Evans misses significant time.

The Buccaneers have a bye this upcoming week, so Evans will have at least two weeks to recover. Here’s Dr. Morse on Evans 👇️ 

QUICK SLANTS

Isiah Impressing

📖 Read “Care/Don’t Care” by Matt Harmon of Yahoo Sports. He cares about the Chiefs Running Game

• “Isiah Pacheco has been taking over this backfield. He has run more routes than Jerick McKinnon on the season and has been an asset in the receiving game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has barely been a factor. With the way the Chiefs' passing offense is still figuring things out, I can see Kansas City making it a priority to ensure Pacheco gets off the bus with 15 carries and even push him closer to 20 in some games.”

He doesn’t care that Calvin Ridley struggled. Hold the line.

• “Calvin Ridley dealt with a difficult coverage assignment. The Falcons rarely have A.J. Terrell track the No. 1 receiver but they assigned him to shadow Ridley, a player they know well, and still doubled him with safety help over the top.”

📖 Read Week 4 Injury Report by Jeff Mueller of Destination Devy. On Javonte Williams 👇️ 

“It appeared to be a non-contact soft tissue injury and has been reported as a hip flexor strain. The Broncos would be wise to allow him to get back to full health without rushing him back onto the field…brace for him missing a few weeks.”

📖 Read Dynasty WR Rankings Thread by Adam Harstad of Footballguys.

“Key insight: high-end production is “free” from young players. You can buy a young guy today, start him for 2-3 years, then sell for at least as much as you paid to get him. It was free.”

🎙️Listen to Nick Chubb and Canton on Matt Waldman’s RSP Cast, where Matt and Adam Harstad debate whether Nick Chubb should or would be a HOFer. They also touch on strategies for targeting handcuff RBs.

🔥 Fantasy Points Data is FREE to test out this week. You can check out their new tool here.

👀 Cooper Adams Expected Points Report points to regression for two early-season studs.

Creator of the Day

Matt Miller

In this new series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) is a pioneer of modern NFL draft analysis. He’s spent over a decade covering the NFL Draft and has appeared across ESPN platforms such as NFL Live, SportsCenter, Get Up!, NFL Draft and Mock Draft specials, ESPN Radio & more. Dynasty and redraft players can’t get enough.

He was Bleacher Report’s first paid writer back in 2011. As the lead NFL Draft writer at BR from 2010-2021, Matt’s coverage of the NFL & NFL Draft took off. He is BR’s most-read writer ever, due to his incredible mock drafts, scouting reports and exclusive stories.

Scout the player, not the helmet.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is second on Matt’s 2024 board, behind only USC’s Caleb Williams. This is historic. In over a decade of ranking draft prospects, Matt never had a receiver this high. His pedigree, experience in the same program that produced Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Michael Thomas, and Terry McLaurin and 6-foot-4, 215-pound frame all scream generational talent.

‘Scouts point back to receivers such as Randy Moss’ when discussing Harrison Jr.’s potential. Other team GMs mention that he would have been the WR1 in almost every recent class, suggesting the only argument could be made for Ja’Marr Chase. Other names thrown around were Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones. Matt’s favorite comparison is AJ Green. Per an AFC East scout, ‘Worst case, he’s Tee Higgins or Amari Cooper. But he’s more talented than they are.’ He's a game-breaker.

The full article covers all possible draft scenarios regarding Harrison Jr., so we highly recommend you read more ($). Keep an eye out for his upcoming Caleb Williams spotlight.

Tweet of the Day

Thanks for joining us this morning - now go place those waiver claims before your absence is felt on the economy.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Matt

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