🏈 Trades Issue

Good morning to all, but especially to Dan Campbell. When you’re going through hell, keep going.

• With Jared Goff missing practice this week, the Lions will likely have Tim Boyle as their starting QB.

• In 19 games for UConn from 2013-2015, Boyle had a 1:13 TD:INT ratio (no, that’s not a typo) while completing just 48.4% of his passes.

Trade FOR

These players have disappointed managers and will be available - most importantly, they offer league-winning upside (articles are linked if just the player is listed)

Jalen Hurts

Greg Cosell on Sunday’s game: “This was a Hurts game: Put him in the shotgun, work the run game off him with both zone read and designed run elements and throw enough on 1st down to be proactive and aggressive: Hurts 6-8 for 80 yards and TD on 1st down – This game could be the template going forward.”

• Second-highest graded QB in the 4th quarter (behind only the GOAT).

• Second-highest rated passer in the red-zone (behind Kirk Cousins)

• Second-best rushing QB since taking over for Wentz

• With Washington, the Giants, and then Washington again in Weeks 15-17, Hurts has a beautiful playoff schedule.

Saquon Barkley

The Giants are “seeing good things” from Saquon, who should return Monday. Three of his next five opponents (the Eagles twice and the Chargers) bleed fantasy points to opposing running backs. Saquon is a generational RB who people are sleeping on. This is the cheapest you’ll get him (and last chance).

• The only rookie since 2002 to finish as the RB1

• When healthy (Week 3), he controlled 95.6% of the backfield touches and 100% of backfield targets

• His ceiling is a top 3 RB, maybe the RB1 overall when he’s healthy and getting the work.

• The one “Buy Low” scenario I can fathom is the Barkley owner needing a W this week.

• Watch this:

• Miles Sanders - The Eagles are fully committed to running the ball and Sanders is the most talented RB on the roster. Their schedule is a bunch of terrible offenses, which should keep them in run-heavy scripts. At worst, he is in a committee and equals his previous production. At best, he reclaims a near every-down role to provide above-expected returns.

• Kareem Hunt - Will not play this week but is almost back.

• Javonte Williams

WRs

• Jerry Jeudy

• DJ Moore

• Marquise Brown

George Kittle

Injuries are the only knock on Kittle. He's healthy now, and has taken on a massive target share since returning. Look where Kittle shows up on this graph by @FF_MarvinE

• Logan Thomas - His playoff schedule: Eagles twice and Dallas. The Eagles allow the most points to TEs (19.11), while Dallas is average (13.62). Thomas likely returns to an every-down role. If he’s not on waivers, he should be a cheap buy.

• Mike Gesicki - utilization remains elite despite the two recent box score duds. He is a top-six tight end with a No. 1 overall upside each week.

• Darren Waller - is currently on a 142-target pace over 16 games... Waller’s 16.5 XFP average sits slightly ahead of Travis Kelce for the top spot at the position.

Trade AWAY

Mike Evans

Evans already has nine TDs on the season, with five occurring in the three games without Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, both of whom should be back soon. Gronkowski (back) was a full participant yesterday, a good sign we’ll see him on the field on Monday.

• Antonio Gibson

• CeeDee Lamb

• Hunter Henry

The Toss Up

Mike Williams

Justin Herbert, throw Mike Williams the damn ball. Per Dwain McFarland:

• Big Mike defeated single-man coverage 15 of 25 opportunities (60%) Sunday, yet only saw 5 targets.

• He beat press-single-man coverage six of nine times (67%) and was open on 80% of routes 10-plus yards downfield, yet only saw 5 targets.

• The biggest issue is the offensive line not giving Herbert enough time. Keenan Allen is the more natural separator and Herbert is targeting Allen often.

Big Mike’s routes run and target percentages have grown each of the last three weeks, signaling the Chargers are looking to get Williams more involved. Williams has been bad, but he’s a FA this offseason with big $ to play for. Don’t forget his upside.

Antonio Brown Update

After a report from AB’s former personal chef surfaced claiming that AB was not vaccinated, Mark Maske cleared the air:

Quick Slants

• Lamar Jackson (illness) was not practicing for the second straight day. Marquise Brown (thigh) and Rashod Bateman were also absent.

• Find biggest fantasy football Week 11 mismatches

• There’s optimism Derrick Henry will return in early January

• Ratings for every NFL team before Week 11

• NFL Week 10 Mic’d Up “I’M BAAAAAACK” (video)

• PFF’s highest rated rookie WR this season? DeVonta Smith

• Alvin Kamara (MCL sprain) missed another practice. Not a great sign for Sunday.

• Bill Belichick called Kyle Pitts: “Somewhere between a Julio Jones and a Tony Gonzalez”

Tweet of the Day

Thanks for joining me this morning - now go make some deals!

- Jake

Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Join 5800+ other subscribers: