🏈 Trevor vs Joe - Battle of the #1 Jabronis

Today marks the beginning of Week 4. Is it just me, or is the NFL season flying by?

We start Week 4 with a match-up of the 2020 & 2021 first overall QBs. Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence face off for the first time since their national title battle two years ago (Joe led LSU to the W). Look at Burrow’s stats that game:

The highlights of that championship game between the two unbeaten teams are worth watching:

While I hope Joe Burrow repeats 6 total TDs tonight, let’s examine the matchup in more detail.

The Bengals Fantasy Outlook

The 2-1 Bengals welcome the 0-3 Jaguars to Cincinnati - the Bengals are coming off a huge upset over the Steelers, while the Jaguars are looking like one of the worst teams in football.

• The Bengals are 7.5 point favorites (never thought I would type those words) with an over-under of 46 for the game. 

The Run Game

The Bengals have the lowest pass rate over expectation in the entire NFL, meaning they run the ball at the highest rate in the league regardless of the score. This plan helps ease Joe Burrow back into action, and is great news for Joe Mixon:

• Mixon is entrenched as a Top 5 RB this week with a great chance to finish RB1 overall. All the stars are aligning for a Mixon explosion: game script, Jaguars bad defense, and workload.

The Passing Game

Joe Burrow is yet to crack 20 pts this year, and despite a plus matchup against the Jags, the low volume makes Burrow a risky start. I’d be more comfortable with a Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield this week.

With Tee Higgins OUT, both Tyler Boyd and Ja’Marr Chase are worth starting tomorrow - even with the low pass volume.

• Ja’Marr Chase: Chase is a must-start against a Jags secondary that has been torched by the deep ball, with (mediocre) deep threats (Brandin Cooks & Christian Kirk) each topping over a 100 yards. 

• Tyler Boyd: In Week 3, Chase had a 27.8% target share while Boyd saw a 33.3% target share. Expecting another solid 7-catches for 75+ yards here.

Also - if you want a sneaky D/ST to start this week, grab the Bengals D/ST. They have been good thus far, while Trevor Lawrence is a turnover machine.

The Jaguars Fantasy Outlook

The bottom line: things don’t look great. The good news? They have James Robinson, and Bengals safety Jessie Bates is missing the game, as is Tee Higgins. The bad news? Everything else.

The Run Game

James Robinson finally got involved with almost as many touches in Week 3 as he did Weeks 1+2 combined. And guess what? It worked. The Jags stayed competitive and actually held a lead at one point. Maybe playing your better players works?!!?

• James Robinson is slowly taking back his role and is seeing all the passing-down work. Top 24 play at RB this week.

The Passing Game

Despite all the hype, Trevor Lawrence has been served a slice of humble pie in his first 3 NFL starts - throwing 8 INTs (compared to 5 TDs).

I am not worried about Lawrence, these are expected growing pains. Remember, Peyton Manning led the league in INTs his rookie year. He turned out OK. That said, I am not confident starting Lawrence against a tougher than expected Bengals defense.

• DJ Chark: A fringe WR play with 20 targets but not much to show for it.

• Laviska Shenault: Don’t trust him yet. Need to see some production - right now he only has volume.

• Marvin Jones: Clearly the Jags WR1 (28 targets and 17 catches in the first 3 games), Jones is a borderline FLEX play with a low ceiling.

• Fun fact - Jones once DM’d me after I said he was a good #2 WR. He said he was facing the opposing teams’ best corner every play, then recommended I “watch the tape.” I said, “Subscribe to my newsletter.”

• No TE is worth streaming this week, but keep an eye on Dan Arnold for Week 5.

Final Prediction: Bengals 30 - Jaguars 17

James White is out for the season

This means the pass-catching RB role is open in New England. My guess is J.J. Taylor takes the James White role, with Damien Harris as the first and second down grinder.

• This should also bring back Rhamondre Stevenson into the mix. Taylor and Stevenson are worth stashing on your bench.

The D’Andre Swift Hype Train

Fantasy Football twitter has declared this week the D’Andre Swift Hype Week, and the train has left the station:

Dan Campbell is a man of his word. When he says Swift will get the ball more, I listen. Heck, I believe anything Dan Campbell tells me.

(XFP is expected fantasy points)

Swift looked great the first 3 weeks and looks poised for a top 10, maybe top 5 season. If you can find an owner willing to sell high, make a trade offer.

Quick Slants

• It looks like trade talks for Deshaun Watson are heating up, with the Dolphins the front-runners and most likely destination. Here’s why he’s worth stashing.

• Richard Sherman joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a 1-year deal. The NFL is better with Sherman in it.

• Joe Judge is still a clown.

Thanks for joining me this morning, have an epic day.

- The Commish

ANY TRADE/PICKUP QUESTIONS, ASK ME HERE.

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