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- 🏈 Two Backfields to Avoid
🏈 Two Backfields to Avoid
Watson saga concludes, Colts WRs shine, Bills and Rams RB disaster & more.
Good morning. Thankfully, ETR's Adam Levitan confirmed what we’ve been hearing: everyone (except Antonio Gibson) is balling!
Been scouring the internet, reading every article, grinding every tweet.
Here's what I've learned:
Every NFL player is having the best camp of his career.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan)
11:47 PM • Aug 18, 2022
With Week 2 of the preseason kicking off last night, here's a great list of one thing to watch for from all 32 teams. Two things we're keeping a close eye on:
Mitchell Trubisky remains the favorite to start for Pittsburgh in Week 1, but all three candidates (including rookie Kenny Pickett) played well last week. If Pickett lights up the Jags and Trubisky struggles, things could change quickly.
Dameon Peirce shined in the preseason opener and faces a Rams' defense that didn’t allow any Chargers RB to run for more than 6 yards last week. A big game by Pierce here and the Texans will be forced to give him the starting job (his ADP would skyrocket).
The Big Story
Deshaun Watson & NFL. Settled.
Deshaun Watson // Getty Images
The Deshaun Watson fiasco is over (for now). Yesterday, Schefter reported that the NFL and NFLPA agreed to an 11-game suspension, keeping Watson out until Week 13. The settlement also includes a fine of $5 million that goes to charity.
Watson's suspension coincidentally ends the week the Browns take on the Texans. Say what you want about the NFL, they know how to prioritize entertainment over anything...
Fantasy implications:
Downgrade Browns pass-catchers: starter Jacoby Brissett is about as mediocre as my monthly salary: Brissett averaged only 201 passing yards per game in his last 20 starts.
Upgrade Kareem Hunt. As Scott Barrett pointed out in his Underrated Upside article: when the Browns lose, Hunt averages more fantasy points per game than Nick Chubb. Chubb is being drafted in round two. Hunt goes six rounds later.
Watson will be available for the final two weeks of the fantasy season (weeks 13+14) and the three playoff weeks (15 to 17). As Nick Chubb scores almost 4 more FPG in Browns wins, Chubb could be a strong mid-season buy for the playoff stretch.
If the welcome-back Jaguars fans gave Watson is any indication, it'll be a long five weeks for the Browns new QB.
The Hype
Risers: Them Colts Catchers
Michael Pittman // CBS
Michael Pittman looks poised for a monster year as Colts beat @JoelAErickson described Pittman as "dominant" in their joint practices against the Lions. Also from Joel: "From the start of training camp, [Pittman's] been [Matt Ryan's] No. 1 target by far".
The Athletic also raved, saying, "No player's flashed more than Pittman. He looks primed to breakout and build off his 1000 yard season in 2021."
Last year Pittman had the 4th highest route run win rate in the league (meaning he's really good at getting open) and, even in year 15, Matt Ryan is an upgrade over Carson Wentz.
ESPN's Stephen Holder believes that rookie WR Alec Pierce's "rate of growth" is one reason the Colts have not signed a veteran receiver to replace T.Y. Hilton. The Colts immediately put the rookie WR with the first-team offense and he is an "exceptional athlete who should operate in a clear downfield role for the Colts."
Packers OC Adam Stenavich reiterated the idea that AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones will be used together, to "not wear them out over the long haul." While neither will be a "bell-cow," Aaron Rogers says 50 targets apiece for Jones and Dillon is “very realistic” this season.
Back from injury, "Devonta Smith has been open literally every rep. His footwork, breaks, pad level, body control midair - it's all been elite" - @JCTSports. While AJ Brown got the early off-season hype, Devonta quietly became a value at his current ADP (90th).
Cowboys beat writer David Helman believes Dalton Schultz might "catch 100 balls." This beautiful throw and TD catch from Dak to Schultz may have something to do with it.
4th down from the 10. Dak finds Schultz for a touchdown.
— David Helman (@davidhelman_)
7:38 PM • Aug 18, 2022
Fallers: Players trending downwards
Akers or Henderson? // NFL.com
Buffalo Bills beat writer believes they will use James Cook and the two other RBs in a committee... They also used language like "dependent on the situation" and "riding the hot hand." This sounds like a nightmare situation for fantasy owners.
James Robinson should be ready for Week 1 despite tearing his Achilies in late last season. If Cam Akers performance in the playoffs last year (2.7 YPC) taught us anything, Robinson may be slow coming out of the gate. Etienne should get a few weeks to build a sizeable lead. I hope.
Speaking of Akers, Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports argues that Sean Mcvay has evolved as a coach, that he no longer needs a "bell-cow" running back and is more open to splitting work between Akers and Henderson. This is consistent with what is happening in training camp, with both backs splitting first teams reps.
Treat Cam Akers (at his ADP) like Antonio Brown treats good behaviour - don't do it.
There are many factors going against Diontae Johnson right now:
Ben "Check-down to Diontae" Roethlisberger retired
George Pickens looks like a dawg
Najee Harris is the focal point of the offence
All 3 QB's on the roster are unproven
Johnson has more question marks and presents a lower floor than guys like Courtland Sutton, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Williams, all being drafted after him.
Also, am I the only one who has no clue how to spell Roethlisberger? Good riddance.
Best Content of the Day
Positivity from Pittsburgh
Love a feel-good story. After seeing the fight, Coach Tomlin then spent the next few hours with the kids. Yesterday, he invited the same group of kids, who all go to a local community center, to be his guest at practice.
Best thing/story I’ve seen so far on my camp tour. A little backstory. @CoachTomlin was driving in his car when he saw these kids fighting in the street. Tomlin pulls over and the kids, in obvious shock at who stepped out of the car, stopped fighting. (Read full story below)
— Jay Glazer (@JayGlazer)
9:16 PM • Aug 18, 2022
Overtime
Quick Slants
The Athletic's Bob Sturm believes that RB Ezekiel Elliott is entering his final season with the Cowboys. Time to load up on Tony Pollard dynasty shares.
There is no set return date for Tom Brady's return to camp. Between OL injuries and lack of off-season reps, are we really going to worry about a Tom Brady led team? Maybe a little?
The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia reported "there isn’t much standing in the way of both [WR Stefon Diggs and WR Gabriel Davis] being on the field for 90-plus percent of the snaps in 2022."
Baker Mayfield has reportedly won the QB job in Carolina. Good. Not sure I could draft a WR relying on Sam Darnold to throw them accurate passes.
@JakeTribbey breaks down QB target tendencies in this free article. Why is this important? "Let Jim Harbaugh coach Tom Brady, and I’ll guarantee you he targets JK Dobbins more often than Lamar Jackson."
Speaking of targets, here's a list of the most targeted RBs in 2021.
Tweet of the Day
Andy Reid praised Isiah Pacheco as 'explosive' while maintaining CEH has 'good personality.'
— Jordan Loupe (@CantALoupe_FF)
7:01 PM • Aug 18, 2022
Looks > Personality. Thanks for joining us - see you Monday.
- Jake, Eddie, Matt & Coach Wehler.
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