Good morning. Forget that work assignment you were leaving for Sunday, and skip that boring to-do list. And no, your family doesn’t need to spend time with you today. Let’s win some football games.

LET’S GO!

Good news to start your day: Saquon Barkley won the NFLPA Community MVP for his tireless work to support those less fortunate. Barkley was meeting with members of homeless camps, listening to their stories and donating essential supplies to combat the upcoming winter.

This was personal. As a child, Saquon experienced periods of homelessness. And this isn’t the first time Saquon’s gone above and beyond for those in need. Love to see it.

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

Davante Adams falls to WR19. Since Week 4, Adams is the WR52 and averaging just 3.6 receptions and 35 yards per game. Although the Raiders showed life under interim HC Antonio Pierce, Adams has a brutal matchup against the Jets secondary this week.

Dalton Schultz rises to TE12. He’s scored over 13 points in four of his last five, finishing as a top-6 TE each week. He may not be flashy, but with C.J. Stroud surpassing expectations, Schultz is a solid starting TE.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

START EM SIT EM

Quarterback

Start Jared Goff. The Lions play the Chargers, who have allowed 12 passing touchdowns (9th most) and the 2nd most FP to QBs, per Nathan Jahnke of PFF. The matchup is also expected to be the highest scoring of the week, per FanDuel Sportsbook, which points to Goff throwing multiple touchdowns.

Sit Sam Howell. Since Week 5 the Seahawks have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards and just 6.1 yards per attempt, behind only the Jets and Ravens. They also generate pressure and sacks at an above-average rate; that’s been a major problem for Howell all season, per Michael Florio of NFL.com.

Start Brock Purdy. According to the FantasyPoints Data Suite's Coverage Matrix, Jacksonville's two-high safety rate has risen to 57% from Week 5 on. Purdy ranks 15th in passer rating vs. single-high but is 1st among all QBs vs. two-high, middle-field-open looks, per Jacob Gibbs of Sportsline.

“Sit your ass down and finish your cutlets, Tommy” - Mrs. Devito. DeVito is playing for the Giants while living in his childhood home in Cedar Grove, N.J., nine miles from the Giant’s stadium: "I don't have to worry about laundry, what I'm eating for dinner, chicken cutlets and all that is waiting for me when I get there. My mom still makes my bed”, via ESPN’s Jordan Raanan.

• Start Will Levis. The Buccaneers defense has been the easiest to attack through the air in the NFL over the past month and allow the second-most passing yards this season.

• Sit Baker Mayfield. His “low success rate sets him up as a negative regression candidate”, especially against a Titans defense that limits big plays but forces (and allows) QBs to consistently work the ball downfield, which doesn't always go great for Baker, per Pat Kerrane’s Legendary Upside.

Running Back

Start Alexander Mattison. In four games without Akers, Mattison’s 12.2 half-PPR average would rank just behind Breece Hall and Rachaad White as RB18. If Mattison can just be an average RB, he’ll see a massive regression going forward — which will likely come in the form of TDs, as Mattison is the only RB in the league with over 90 carries and no rushing TDs.

Sit Gus Edwards. Edwards “has five TDs over the last two weeks, but a matchup against the Cleveland Browns in addition to Keaton Mitchell‘s emergence will make it much harder for Edwards to accumulate points,” per Nathan Jahnke of PFF.

Start James Conner. Conner is a consistently productive RB2 when healthy. “Dating back to last season, he finished as a top-25 scoring RB in 12-of-16 games, with 9 of those performances inside the top-15”, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points. Emari Demercado (toe) is out, as is Falcons stud DT Grady Jarrett.

Start Tyler Allgeier. The RB who dominates red zone carries (26 to Bijan's 9) is averaging almost 14 touches per game (RB24). The Falcons are favored (-1.5/-2) and Allgeier's three best games came when the Falcons won (or almost won): Week 1 (22.9), Week 7 (12.7) and Week 9 (close loss, 10.0). Bijan fumbled last week, and Arthur Smith didn’t need another excuse to avoid giving his best players the ball.

• Sit Keaton Mitchell. The matchup is brutal, Mitchell barely played in Week 9, and the rookie was injured this week - all Ravens RBs are risky starts for Week 10.

• Start Devin Singletary. The Bengals are allowing 4.73 YPC (3rd-highest) and the 2nd-highest explosive run rate (7.7% of carries have gained 15+ yards), per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.

Wide Receiver

Start Deebo Samuel. Deebo returns to face a Jaguars defense using two-high safety looks at a 57% clip since Week 5. Deebo averages an absurd 4.32 YPRR against those looks. Samuel on injured shoulder: "I'm ready to go."

Start Mike Evans. “The Titans have the seventh-highest opponent passer rating (101.8) on attempts of 15+ air yards, and that rate rises to 112.2 when targeting wide receivers deep. On paper, this is an ideal spot for Evans”, per Jacob Gibbs of Sportsline.

Sit Zay Flowers. Since Rashod Bateman (10 targets) and Odell Beckham (18) got healthy, Flowers (13) is losing targets. And when he gets them, they are usually just six yards down field. He needs to show more to be trusted.

Bold Start: Christian Watson. The Steelers play man and single-high coverage at a top-5 rate, while Watson was WR3 in YPRR against man coverage last season). Steelers are also the sixth-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+7.2 FPG), per Jake Tribbey of Fantasy Points.

• Sit Jakobi Meyers. Aidan O’Connell has been brutal for Meyers’ value — in O’Connell’s three starts, Meyers has just five total receptions and has yet to exceed 40 receiving yards. Now he gets a league-leading Jets pass defense.

• Start Demario Douglas. Douglas has looked great on tape (video) and ran 64% of his routes lined up outside with DeVante Parker absent in Week 9. Parker is out again this week.

Tight End

Fire up Dalton Schultz. Facing a Bengals team allowing the 3rd-most yards (66.4) and the 2nd-most receptions (6.4) on a per-game basis to TEs, and with Nico Collins (calf) out, there’s no reason to have Schultz on your bench.

Start Gerald Everett. Everett faces a Lions team that does not know how to defend TEs; they allow a league-worst 16.9 fantasy points per game to the position. With Mike Williams and Josh Palmer injured and Quentin Johnston awful, Everett should (continue to) make the most of his opportunities, per David Lathan of LWOS.

• Start Dalton Kincaid, obviously. Dawson Knox is still sidelined, Buffalo is projected for 27.25 points, and the Broncos are allowing the 3rd most points to TEs.

• Start Taysom Hill. Despite scoring 4 TDs in his past three games, Hill is tied with Tony Pollard for the league lead in expected TD regression. He’s scored 4.1 TDs less than expectation…

• Start Cade Otton. Otton has six-plus targets in three straight games and is playing almost 100% of the TB snaps. He’s had as many big games (10+ PPR points) as down games (under 4) this season.

INJURY REPORT

It’s About Time for Marvin

🚀 Stash:

1. Marvin Mims was subject to enough commentary from Sean Payton that he could play more out of the bye. Crazy stat: Mims is third on the Broncos in receiving yards (246) on just 11 receptions.

2. Kyle Philips led Titans WRs with 68 yards in Week 9. After seeing what the Texans did to the Buccaneers defense, Philips is a deep league add.

3. And that’s about it. It's a barren, unforgiving landscape out there in waiver land.

👀 Monitor:

1. Ja’Marr Chase (back) sat out Wednesday’s practice but returned in a limited capacity on Thursday. He’s a GTD.

2. With Tee Higgins (hammy) out, Trenton Irwin is a strong “f- it I’m screwed anyway” play.

3. Justin Jefferson could return

4. Josh Downs (knee) was also questionable heading into Week 9; he lasted just 12 snaps before exiting. He’s risky after sitting out of practice all week.

5. If Downs sits, Michael Pittman becomes a WR1. Downs comes off the field in two-WR sets, so we have a decent sample size (78 routes) of Pittman's per-route splits with/without Downs. Without Downs, Pittman averages a 30.8% target per route rate (that’s elite, Amon-Ra St. Brown territory).

And if you need last-minute depth chart updates, check out Sharp Football’s NFL Week 10 Injury Report For All 32 Teams by Tucker Bagley.

BEST BETS

🥇 C.J Stroud under 255.5 receiving yards (-115)

It’s hard to bet against Stroud after he set the rookie passing record for yards in a game last week (470). Stroud hasn’t hit this total in 3 of his past 4, and he’s missing Nico Collins.

Bengals DC Lou Anarumo is 3-0 against rookie quarterbacks since the defense was re-made in 2021, and as Gibbs wrote: “on paper, by far the best way to slow Stroud and his downfield weapons seems to be to play defense exactly the way that Cincinnati did in Week 9.”

🥈 DeAndre Hopkins over 61.5 receiving yards (-110)

With Will Levis under centre the past two games, Hopkins has seen 17 targets for 8 catches and 188 yards. While he was a yard and a half short of this prop last week, he was up against a formidable Steelers defence. This week, he faces a Buccaneers team that has allowed the second most passing yards per game this season.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose and we’re probably wrong. 2023 record 3-7. But yes, we went 2-0 last week.

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read the Outcome (so far) of the Big Offseason RB Contracts by Bill Barnwell of ESPN. Bill explores what could happen to Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler and Josh Jacobs in the 2024 offseason.

📖 Read Fantasy Football WR Report by Jonathon Macri of PFF. Take Houston Texans WRs against the Bengals this week:

• “The Bengals have played an above-average rate of man coverage. (11th). Tank Dell (0.72) has delivered top-10 marks in fantasy points per route run against man coverage.”

📖 Read Love/Hate for Week 10 by Matthew Berry of NBC Sports. See why he loves Calvin Ridley vs SF.

🎙️Listen to Week 10 Stats vs Film by Josh Norris and Hayden Winks from the Underdog Football Show. Hear why Bijan Robinson’s lack of efficiency on the goal-line, plus his fumble from last week may continue to hamper Arthur Smith’s trust in him, limiting his upside.

🎙️Listen to NFL Week 10 Fantasy Football Preview Show from John McKechnie and Mario Puig from Rotowire. How to navigate key players on bye and the outlook of rising players like Keaton Mitchell.

📺️ Watch Week 9 Mic’d Up 👇️ 

CREATOR

Ben Gretch

In this series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) burst onto the scene in 2017 with his column ‘Stealing Signals’, which now exists as a newsletter where he discusses dives into stats, trends, matchups, utilization, usage and more.

In an industry that’s often divided between analytics and film, Ben finds a home on the bridge in between. Ben pairs an understanding of the stats and data with the underlying realities of the game for the full story and provides a layer of unique nuance that differs from the crowd.

Ben’s 🔥 take? Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a top-20 PPR WR moving forward. SEA is searching for answers post-bye… JSN has an elite profile, he’s healthy and both his utilization & usage rising. Buy.

Week 10 Input Volatility

Ben wants to pump the breaks on the Jonathan Taylor takeover. Getting up to roughly 75% of the backfield might not stick… like it or not, Moss has been good this year and he likely won’t collect dust on the sidelines.

With Tee Higgins out and Ja’Marr Chase banged up, Ben says you’re still starting Chase if active but don’t be shocked if they limit his snaps if they get out to an early lead. Gameflow will dictate usage. Trenton Irwin is worth a mention if one or both of these guys miss.

Click here to read the full Stealing Signals: Week 10 Volatility Report.

Tweet of the Day

Good luck in Week 10.

And remember: if the Raiders can break out victory cigars for beating the Giants, you and your 3-6 fantasy team can talk that smack all you want when you get a W this week.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean

PS. If you enjoy movies and the stories behind them, Jake’s brother started a newsletter you might love. It’s called Reels!